What does Texas have to do to make the NCAA Tournament?

What does Texas have to do to make the NCAA Tournament? 

The Texas Longhorns will travel to Houston today to take on the No. 3 Cougars at noon Saturday on CBS. 

Texas (16-8, 5-6) has a strong NCAA Resume currently, but still has work in front of them to punch the ticket. 

OnTexasFootball takes a look ahead, and the scenarios for Texas to be comfortably in the tourney.

Texas’ Remaining Schedule
2/17 @ No. 3 Houston
2/19 Kansas State
2/24 @ No. 6 Kansas 
2/27 @ Texas Tech
3/2 Oklahoma State 
3/4 @ No. 12 Baylor 
3/9 No. 25 Oklahoma 

NCAA Men’s Basketball NET Rankings (Feb. 15)
Texas is No. 31 in NCAA NET headed into Saturday’s games. 

The Longhorns are 4-6 in Quad 1 games, 1-1 vs. Quad 2, 3-1 vs. Quad 3 and 8-0 vs. Quad 4. 

Quad 1 games remaining for the Longhorns:
No. 1 @ Houston
No. 17 @ Kansas
No. 26 @ Texas Tech 
No. 12 @ Baylor 

Quad 2 game remaining:
No. 33 Oklahoma 

Quad 3 games remaining:
No. 77 Kansas State
No. 137 Oklahoma State 

T-Rank 
Texas is No. 22 in Bart Torvik’s rankings headed into Saturday. 

2024 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings
Texas checks in at No. 25 headed into college games this weekend. 

What it means for Texas

The Longhorns are comfortably in the NCAA Tournament headed into the weekend. That resume is aided by Quad 1 wins at Oklahoma, and over Baylor and TCU in Big 12 play. 

While Strength of Schedule as a whole may not carry as much weight as it used to, the Longhorns have played a top 30 ranked schedule and will likely end up with a scheduled ranked from 20-30 area. 

Most years, a sub .500 conference record would not get you into the Field of 68. With the monster level Big 12 Conference in 2023-24, Texas would get in at 8-10. 

Sitting at 5-6 with four Quad 1 road games remaining, 8-10 may be the best case scenario. 

Texas and seeding:

Scenario 1: 19-12, 8-10 is likely a 9-10 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament

Scenario 2: 20-11, 9-9 would likely be a 7 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament 

Scenario 3: 18-13, 7-11 would likely send the Horns to the NIT without a run in the Big 12 Tournament. 

Right now, I do not see a scenario where Texas is 21-10, 10-8 to finish the regular season. That would mean winning five of last seven vs. a very difficult closing stretch of the schedule.  Texas has not shown that consistent type of stretch this season over talent neutralized stretches.