It may feel like the 2025 football season cannot get here fast enough, and most of us are ready to see these Longhorn in action. Honestly, everybody is waiting to see Arch in action followed by a talented team of future pros lined up all over the field.
There are others that zig when everyone else's zag. As the Arch hype continues to ratchet up, CJ has decided to bang the drum for Mateer. The tingle in his eye when he was interviewing Mateer at the Manning Passing Academy, to the softness in his voice when he speaks about the possibilities that Mateer could unleash a can of (you know what) on the SEC not seen since Cam Newton left Blinn College. The hater in me had to do a deep dive to see if Mateer was being overhyped by CJ, OU pundits, and some national media guys.
First I seperated Mateer stats against the 7 teams he faced that won 5 games or fewer (winning percentage for the 7 teams .337) (record against 4 - 3)
Passing: 129/176 73% 1,890 yards 21 TDs 1 INTs
Rushing: 85 rushes 382 yards 4.5 yards per carry 10 TDs
Here are Mateers stats against the 5 teams he faced that won 6 games or more (winning percentage for the 5 teams (.591) (record against 4 - 1)
Passing: 95/171 56% 1,249 yards 8 TDs 6 INTs
Rushing: 93 rushes 460 yards 4.9 yards per carry 5 TDs
Splitting that up into the average per game stats against teams projected to win less than 6 games (3) and over 6 games (9) on OU's 2025 schedule, Mateer's stats would be:
Passing: 225/381 59% 3,058 yards 24 TDs 12 INTs
Rushing: 204 carries 992 yards 13 TDs
I also took his overall numbers from Washington State- (2024 season), and applied the rushing decreases and passing increases that Cam Ward experience the year before when he went from Washington State to Miami. The caveat is Mateer's OC and QB coach were hired by OU (I'm intrigued to see how much of a rushing load is placed on a Mateer). If Mateer follows the same trajectory that Cam Ward did when surrounded by better talent, Mateer's 2025 stats would be:
Passing: 230/352 65.2% 3,453 yards 41 TDs 7 INTs
Rushing: 89 carries 413 yards 8 TDs
To the legend CJ Vogel, smile proudly