Buck Travis

See the YouTube video of Earl on MNF against Miami in 1978. One of the greatest MNF performances in history.

As an old school SWC fan (who did all I could to stay in school) my gut tells me that unless you're a 1st or 2nd round pick, you should stay in school. So I bounced the risk/rewards off of Grok: For a college football player projected as a **Round 3 or 4 pick**, the decision to declare early for the NFL Draft involves a balanced but risky **risk-reward calculation**. The financial upside is meaningful compared to staying in school, but the career longevity and success rates in those mid-rounds are modest, and returning to college can significantly boost draft stock (and thus earnings) while providing other benefits in the NIL era. ### Rewards of Declaring Early (Going Pro) - **Immediate Money**: Rookie contracts are slotted and fully guaranteed for most practical purposes in early rounds. - A typical Round 3 pick in recent drafts (e.g., mid-round) signs a 4-year deal worth ~$5-6 million total, with ~$1-2 million guaranteed (mostly signing bonus). - Round 4: ~$4-5 million total, with ~$800k-$1.2 million guaranteed. - You get paid right away (signing bonus upfront), start your NFL clock, and have a shot at proving yourself for a second contract. - **Professional Opportunity**: If you're projected Day 2 (Rounds 3-4), you're likely talented enough to get drafted and compete for a roster spot. Many mid-round picks become contributors or starters (e.g., ~30-40% chance of becoming a solid starter in Round 3, dropping to ~15-20% in Round 4 based on historical data). - **Avoid Risk of Decline**: One bad senior season, injury in college, or stock drop could push you to Round 5-7 (much lower pay) or undrafted. ### Risks of Declaring Early - **Short Career Potential**: Average NFL career for mid-round picks is ~4-6 years, but many don't last beyond their rookie deal. - Round 3 picks average ~50-60 games played historically; Round 4 closer to 40-50. - Only ~40-50% of Day 2/3 picks play out their full rookie contract as regulars; many are cut early. - If you flame out, you've forfeited college eligibility—no return option. - **Limited Upside Compared to Rising**: Mid-round money is good but not life-changing like Rounds 1-2. If you stay and dominate, you could jump to Day 1/early Day 2 (e.g., $10-30M+ contracts). - **Opportunity Cost**: In the NIL era, top players earn $500k-$2M+ per year in college via endorsements/collectives. Staying often means similar (or better) short-term cash without the NFL grind/injury risk. ### Benefits of Staying in College - **Boost Draft Stock**: Many players projected mid-rounds return and become top-100 or even first-round picks (common examples: improved film, leadership, stats lead to higher grades). - NFL Advisory Committee often recommends staying for projected Round 3+ grades to improve positioning. - **NIL Earnings + Development**: Make serious money now (often comparable to mid-round rookie salaries for stars), finish degree, refine skills, and reduce injury risk in pro-style offenses. - **Fewer Early Declarations Overall**: Post-NIL, underclassmen entries have dropped ~50%—most who declare now are projected Rounds 1-3, meaning mid-round projections increasingly stay. - **Fallback**: Degree + NIL resume provides security if NFL doesn't pan out long-term. ### Overall Assessment - **If Projected Firmly Round 3**: Lean toward going pro—the money is solid (~$5M+ deal), and waiting risks falling lower. - **If Borderline Round 3/4 or Lower**: Strongly consider staying—history shows big jumps possible, and NIL makes college lucrative. - The NFL is high-risk regardless: Even drafted players have ~3-6 year average careers, with mid-rounders often needing to fight for spots. Advice from scouts/GMs: Get feedback from the NFL College Advisory Committee. If they say "Round 3 or better," go. If "return to school," the data backs staying for most mid-tier projections. It's rarely a slam-dunk either way—personal development, injury history, and finances (NIL offers) tip the scale.

Fair and objective comments from Traylor. As a 50+ year college football fan I think this agent/free agency influence is terrible for the game. It drives directly at the reason most people follow college sports. People love college sports because of their emotional ties to the school. You don't watch because you crave excellence in play, you watch because you want to maintain the relationship with the school (and winning is part of that). Once you realize that players only want a paycheck and don't share your love for the college it's easy to start questioning your own loyalty, or at least question rationalizing $300/seat to attend a game. Huge mistake by whoever is/isn't in charge of the game. Reminds be of a conversation I had with my brother-in-law. He's lived in the NYC area for his entire adult life and is only interested in the NFL, NBA, etc. His view is "why would I watch college sports when the highest form of any game is at the pro level." All 30 NFL stadiums have capacities of at least 60,000, with an average around 70,000 seats (ranging from ~61,500 to 82,500). There aren't enough people who love their NFL team to fill a 100,000 person stadium. The closer college sports aligns with professional sports you'll lose many people who love/loved the college game.

I know that's not his style, which I like. However, Miami is in and we're out. He might remember that going into a few 4th quarters next season.

And run up the score whenever possible. Score differential comments started creeping into all the resume discussions. Don't let style points become a liability.

OU vs. Nebraska For diehards, here's a nice article that tells the story of OU and Nebraska. As a kid, this was the one I always wanted to watch that didn't involve Texas. College football was better when these two played. There's also an excellent youtube video (that I can't link) by Hardcore College Football History. Enjoy. https://mikefarrellsports.com/college/nebraska-vs-oklahoma-a-classic-rivalry/

Curious to see what the crowd is like. 18% of tickets remaining on Stubhub. Some selling for less than $100 INCLUDING fees. Feels like a lot of fans will bail out because of the weather...and the obvious.

Partly sunny with a chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. No successful FG attempts by either team. No completions beyond 25 air yards. Four lost fumbles by Florida, one scoop & score by Texas. Two lost fumbles by Texas. Texas 28 Florida 7

I have 48-6 Horns

That was awesome. What a remarkable, iconic career.

Damn, hope they caught it early. You never imagine a beast like Sergio having a serious illness. Wishing him the best. I don't remember any time in my life hearing about so many people with cancer.

I don't get the venomous attitude some have about QE. One OTF host blasted him over the weekend, even before the Sunday game. Might as well pull out the list of UFAs and ridicule them for getting cut from the CFL and having to sell cars or coach middle school. Bobby keeps reeling people back with a "I wish the best for Quinn" while people pile on. I knew a Michigan fan back in the day bashing Tom Brady when he was drafted. Interestingly, stats were very similar: Games played: TB - 29 QE - 37 Completion %: TB - 61.9 QE - 64.9 Pass TD/INT: TB - 30/17 QE - 68/24 Passing yards: TB - 4,773 QE - 9.128 Team record: TB - 20-5 QE - 33-10 NFL draft: TB - 6th QE - 7th TB ended up being pretty good. Don't know if most Michigan fans hate on him for not winning a NC. I appreciate what QE did for Texas. Looking at the guys who left while he was here, could have been much, much worse. Quinn will probably be remembered for bringing Texas back from oblivion as a good college QB. If he's a career NFL backup making $1.2M a year, good for him. If people want to say he sucks, ok. That could be said of a lot of college or backup NFL QBs. Sam Howell/UNC, Malik Willis/Liberty, Taylor Heinicke/Old Dominion, Nick Mullens/Southern Miss, Tanner McKee/Stanford; all back-ups. Maybe they suck, I don't know. But maybe their college fan bases don't hate on them for it.

An ACL takes a full 12 months to recover. My daughter's surgeon (fixed her ACL) was John Baker, the team doc for the Stars, SMU, and formerly for the Cowboys. He said that they treat pros differently from amateurs to get them back on the field sooner. (No play, no pay.) You can get back into the game sooner but you'll pay for it when you're 40 years old. My daughter's rehab took a full year to get back to competitive condition. She never got comfortable turning (D1 softball) while hitting but is fine running in straight lines. She's done 8 marathons since college. I wouldn't expect to see Baxter on the field before November. No need to put his NFL prospects at risk.