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nozatx

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Everything posted by nozatx

  1. nozatx
    They were showing Capital One Cup standings there,iirc. Capital One Cup has a scoring structure which separates men and women, and splits values into popular high-profile sports (Group B) and lower-profile sports (Group A) but it still seems pretty arbitrary (lacrosse and gymnastics are high-profile, swimming, golf, tennis are low-profile). The weight given to national champions over 2nd place is pretty severe. I think it's a load of crap, but whatever. Texas women should move way up after taking softball. https://ecm.capitalone.com/WCM/capital-one-cup/capital-one-cup-scoring-structure-2020-2021.pdf
  2. nozatx
    Sitting at 64 now, +9 for advancing to MCWS:
  3. nozatx
    I know @DirectorsCupUpdates understands this, but just to be clear, goofy DC mechanics for getting those 59 points from track is that the points have to take into account the 27 potentially dropping off from W X-Country as the final optional scoring sport. A single 59 point score from either men or women track would do it, but two scores of 30 pts would not, because that would be +30 +30 -27 = +33. The counting sport limit is key to UT's recent DC success for sure. Without that, Stanford would win easily.
  4. nozatx
    Still looking for confirmation on this. Seems like Stanford should end up with #7 position after playoff to face #2 Texas, but Golf Channel reported otherwise. Maybe they made a mistake.
  5. nozatx
    Stanford and UCLA take the final two spots in match play. Stanford first in playoff but somehow end up with worse advancing seed playoff. Stanford vs #1 Auburn and Horns take on #7 UCLA in match play,
  6. nozatx
    Stanford currently in a 4-team playoff for last two match play spots in men's golf over on GolfHD. Crazy format - Five players each play a hole and top two teams of those five advance,
  7. nozatx
    3 athletes, but 4 events for max 40 pts. Jones in high jump and long jump and Whittaker in 800 could very well win all three. Scatchard in 1500 probably won't make finals, but in theory would have the fourth event for 40 pts.
  8. nozatx
    Thanks for the nice updates, @DirectorsCupUpdates. It's unlikely to matter (but after last year, who knows), but the predicted score for UT M Golf looks from past results to be 82.5 instead of 83. It feels like match play should be treated like the end of a bracket sport, but it doesn't seem to be,
  9. nozatx
    Rowing wins national championship, takes the full 100 DC points, and increases the projected DC lead over Stanford! Horns won Fours, came in second in II Eights, then needed to finish ahead of Stanford in varsity eights. Varsity eights won going away to seal the championship.
  10. nozatx
    Busy upcoming schedule with DC implications:: Tuesday: Women's golf: match play starts Wednesday: Match play completes, Track: NCAA West prelims start (men) Thursday: SB: WCWS starts, Track: NCAA west prelims continue (women) Friday: BB: regional starts, Rowing: NCAA 1st rd, Men's Golf: NCAA starts, Men's track completes prelims Saturday: BB, Rowing, MG continue, Women's track completes prelims Sunday: BB, MG continues, Rowing finals I'll be keeping a close eye on track as the prelims dictate how many athletes advance to the NCAAs where we need to get some DC points. Rowing shouldn't be interesting until Sunday.
  11. nozatx
    Softball has a higher floor by having already made it to superregionals. Losing in supers gives you 64 points. Levels in CWS (soft or base) are 73/78/83/90/100 (7/8. 5/6, 3/4, 2, 1). Losing in supers is just 9 points less than going 2-and-out at CWS. Baseball/softball give you 25 pts for making tourney, then 37.5 if out with 1 win at regionals, and 50 points for regional runner-up. Not making supers in baseball would be a big penalty.
  12. nozatx
    Men are ranked 3rd at Scoreboard and 4th in coaches poll. That translates to reaching semifinals in match play for 82.5 points. Women are ranked 5th in both, which projects to reaching match play for 72.75 points. Both have a floor of 30th for reaching nationals which would be just 44 points. Top 15 teams after 3 rounds play a 4th to cut to final 8 for match play.
  13. nozatx
    Stanford loses 11-2 in 2nd rd of ACC baseball tourney, so that will lock up their 0 pts for baseball as expected. Texas and Stanford both advance to nationals in men's golf. Women's golf start nationals on Friday along with softball supers. Stanford solid #1 rank in women's golf, so cannot gain points from projections there. Stanford was runner-up in softball regionals so finish with an excluded 50 pts.
  14. nozatx
    It was the 9-team 2024 Pac-10 tournament where they made semis (after winning 2 one-run games in a 3-team first round group). Stanford lost in the ACC first round last year Their lack of pitching plus the large number of teams in the ACC tourney will make it really tough for them this year, as they'd somehow have to go on a 5-game winning streak to take the tournament. Stanford's best WHIP among pitchers who pitched more than 1 inning in the season is worse than the Longhorn *team* WHIP. Very, very unlikely they'd make it out, but it's not impossible.
  15. nozatx
    Just for sake of completeness, Stanford could get a very unexpected 25+ points by making NCAA tourney in baseball. They'd have to win next week's ACC tournament to do that and that's very unlikely given their losing record in ACC play along with the presence of Georgia Tech and North Carolina at the top. Barely worth mentioning, but it's there. Tourney starts on Tuesday.
  16. nozatx
    Horns down Frogs 4-3 in men's tennis to reach NCAA finals, so only possible change from projection is +10 by winning championship. Seems like a good plan to me. #1 Wake Forest or #4 Virginia in final.
  17. nozatx
    Men's tennis takes care of Baylor 4-1 to reach final four (Saturday), so that narrows the range from projection to -7 to +10.
  18. nozatx
    Most everybody following along here understands the potential to lose points from the highly ranked sports still in play, but no matter what happens there, track and field is such a huge wildcard (127.5 projected points at my last checkpoint) that it's going to be hard to be comfortable.. Even though the men are ranked 14th at USTFCCA, they only have 3 individuals (and no relays) with season bests in the top 8. The women have 4 with a couple of relays just outside the top 8. The teams really didn't do all that much after the Texas Relays, and maybe that was by design?? fwiw, FloTrack provides a ranking system which scores season bests like the NCAAs.
  19. nozatx
    Women's golf regionals finished up today, mostly going chalk in terms of which schools qualify for NCAAs (UT women won by 11 strokes in regional at UNC, Stanford won by 38 at home), with one significant DC-relevant exception. In the Tallahassee regional, a Kentucky golfer holed out for eagle on the 18th hole which caused Kentucky to jump over 15th-ranked UCLA by one shot for the 5th and final qualifying spot there. UCLA drops 19.5 points from their projection in women's golf with no potential to improve. Final 30 includes 10 SEC schools - OU, Vandy, MsSt failed to advance.
  20. nozatx
    In other news today, Stanford came from behind to upset Michigan in women's lacrosse, so they are accumulating points there unexpectedly. Also, Texas rowing lost in varsity eights to Tennessee which cost them the SEC championship and likely the top ranking in the next poll. Earlier in the season, Stanford beat Tennessee in varsity eights and Texas beat Stanford, so anybody's game at NCAAs.
  21. nozatx
    They do. In the weird world of NCAA sports, M WP is a fall sport. They went out in semis, which only nets them 55 points (excluded almost certainly in their score) because M WP has only 8 teams in the tournament.
  22. nozatx
    Right - water polo.
  23. nozatx
    Here's my current Stanford v Texas snapshot as of May 9 results and rankings. I will expand this later to include at least UCLA, but I wanted to go ahead and post. Texas still needs to perform well pretty much across the board because Stanford's score is well -protected by having a large number of high-scoring excluded sports to fill in in case of an unexpectedly bad showing in one sport (but it also keeps them from gaining a lot of points in case of an unexpected good result). T&F rankings are really sketchy and just a few individuals can make a huge difference in the final team placing, so that's just a big wild-care until it's over. ("x" in front a score means that the score is outside the top 14 non-mandatory sport scores).
  24. nozatx
    You want to see the sheet with 24 schools or the detailed Texas/Stanford table?
  25. nozatx
    Yep, that's it - thanks! Now our predictions are within 10 points each on Texas and Stanford, which would just be attributable to which ranking systems we use for the various sports. I started doing my own just because I wanted to be able to follow along at each competition level more closely, I'm currently tracking 24 schools in all (chosen based on fall/.winter standings and strength of spring sports), but that's overkill at this point. The hardest part to me was figuring out which scoring table applied to which sport, which required some reverse engineering from past results (golf scoring in particular surprised me).
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