SP+ Sim: tapping the breaks

[HookedOnTF]

The Standard is the Standard and I'm as excited for the season as anyone, but, the math on "national title or bust" is just a reminder to enjoy the season and players regardless of reaching the mountaintop. Bill Connely's SP+ model has a preseason bias but it's a useful barometer with a million simulations to paint the picture.

Step 1: You have to get in.

SP+ gives Texas a 27.5% shot at making the CFP field. Read that the other way: roughly a 72% chance we're watching the bracket from home. And the bar to entry is lower than people think — in ESPN's sim run, a 9-3 Alabama makes the field. The goal isn't 12-0. The goal is 9-3 with the right losses, and even that's a bet we're losing three times out of four.

Step 2: You have to win three or four straight against the best teams

Bill points out that best case, if a dominant CFP team is a 70% favorite in every playoff game, (Reality: 50/50 - 60/40 but run with it), chances to

- Win 3 in a row: 0.70³ = 34%

- Win 4 in a row: 0.70⁴ = 24%

Multiply against a 27.5% chance of making it and you're at 6-9%. That's the *optimistic* version.

What SP+ is actually saying about Texas:

Title odds are 3.6%, ninth nationally. Divide that by our 27.5% chance of making the field and you get about a 13% chance of winning it all conditional on being in. For that to be true, our per-game playoff spread is a field goal favorite on a neutral field, four times in a row. 

As an aside, Vegas gives Texas a pretty premium to win a title:

| Team | SP+ | Vegas | Kalshi |

| Ohio State | 14.2% | ~11.4% | ~10.7% |

| Notre Dame | 10.4% | ~9.9% | ~10.7% |

| Oregon | 11.1% | ~8.7% | ~9.0% |

| Georgia | 7.4% | ~8.7% | ~8.1% |

| Texas| 3.6% | ~8.2% | ~9.8% |

| Indiana | 7.1% | ~7.4% | ~7.3% |

| Miami | 4.4% | ~5.7% | ~6.4% |

| Texas Tech | 4.6% | ~3.5% | ~3.0% |

| LSU | 4.1% | ~3.2% | ~4.7% |

| Texas A&M | 2.9% | ~2.9% | ~3.0% |

Look at that table before you decide Bill's sim hates us. Seven of the ten agree within a point or two. SP+ is actually higher than the market on Ohio State, Oregon and Texas Tech.. The market pays Texas 2.5x what the sim does, the widest gap on the board.  The confidence in this fanbase is showing up as a line — and then we turn around and cite the line as proof the confidence is justified. That's a circle, not an argument.

But! The most damning number in that table isn't ours, it's Ohio State's. SP+'s best team in the country has a 14.2% chance to win it all. And we will know how we measure up in 3 weeks.

Back to step 1, making the CFP in a 9 game SEC schedule

SP+ Sim Conference title odds: Georgia 21.0%, Texas 12.5%, LSU 12.0%, Texas A&M 9.5%. Those four combine for 55%, meaning 45% of the time somebody else wins it. Winning the league and the seeding that comes with it is the most valuable thing we can do, and we're the second choice at one-in-eight.

Summary: what an honest good season looks like even if it is disapointing:

Make the field (that alone puts us in the top ~27% of our own outcome distribution) and win a playoff game. Unsatisfying given '23 and '24 for sure, but calling that a failure means calling ~97% of possible 2026 seasons a failure. 

So, it's All Gas on enthusiasm but tap the breaks on championship or bust.

Hook 'Em!

Edited 1 hour ago by HookedOnTF
Tweak

[jkates]

[HookEmLonghorns]

Great analysis, thanks. I know a lot of people disagree with me but I’d much rather have our schedule than Notre Dame’s. I want to watch as many great games as possible this season. I don’t want to watch 9+ predetermined blowouts, followed by a relatively untested team going into the first game of the cfp with the potential to immediately go home. 

Of course I want the natty, but that’s not promised to anyone. And if I had to choose, I’d rather have 3-4 (hopefully 5) months of meaningful games week-after-week than a few scattered weeks of decent opponents and a slightly higher likelihood of winning it all. The up-and-down journey through the season is a huge part of what makes the game so damn captivating and fun to watch.

I love how this season is setting up. Can’t wait for it to start!

 

Edited 1 hour ago by HookEmLonghorns