OTF Premium Four core principles of football likely decide Red River Shootout between No. 1 Texas, Oklahoma

[Jeff Howe]

AUSTIN, Texas — With three wins in five meetings with Oklahoma as Texas’ coach, Steve Sarkisian knows what it takes to win the Red River Shootout.

“The team that runs the ball, the team that converts third downs, the team that wins a turnover battle and the team that can pressure the quarterback generally comes out on top,” Sarkisian said Monday. “You get back to the core fundamentals of what the game of football is all about. As much as we want to talk about the emotions of the game, as much as we want to talk about the trick plays or the craziness that can happen in this game, it generally comes back to the things that are important to football, right? Who can run the ball? You know who can convert third downs and extend drives? Who can create turnovers? Who can take care of the ball? And then, ultimately, who can pressure the other team's quarterback to affect him?”

If Sarkisian is going to become the first Longhorn coach since David McWilliams to win three in a row over the Sooners and give No. 1 Texas (4-0, 1-0 SEC) the program’s first three-game winning streak over Oklahoma (2-2, 0-1) in almost 30 years (1997-99), his squad must continue to execute four core principles of football at a winning level inside the Cotton Bowl. In winning the last two meetings by a combined score of 57-9, the Longhorns have dominated Brent Venables’ team in the statistical categories that matter when the two long-time rivals lock up in Dallas on Saturday (2:30 p.m., ABC).

RUSHING YARDS

The team that’s won the rushing yardage battle has won 25 of the last 28 meetings. That’s been the case in Sarkisian’s five games against the Sooners, with Texas owning the line of scrimmage over the last two seasons.

The Longhorns out-gained Oklahoma on the ground in 2024 (177-89) and 2025 (136-48). Even excluding lost yardage on sacks, Texas has still dominated the Sooners on the ground; the Longhorns had a 183-120 edge two years ago and won the rushing yardage battle 142-80 last season.

Texas played defense at such an elite level in last year’s 23-6 victory that Sarkisian didn’t need to abandon the run. Even in the face of Oklahoma racking up 12 tackles for loss and almost half of the Longhorns’ net rushing yards coming on two plays (a 37-yard run by Tre Wisner in the second quarter and a 29-yard game-clinching run by Arch Manning), Sarkisian kept plugging away long enough that only three of Texas’ 21 non-sack rushing attempts in the second half were stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.

“Everybody wants to run the ball and sometimes it's not always pretty. Everybody wants to run the ball and the first run doesn't go for eight yards. Sometimes, it goes for one. You can't just give up,” Sarkisian said. “I think what also helps you stay committed to the run is playing good defense. When you're playing good defensive football, sometimes, games aren't pretty early on, but you can stay committed to it and then, inevitably, the dam starts to break and you can start to snap off some longer runs that way.”

If Hollywood Smothers and Nick Townsend return from injury, the Longhorns should run the football more effectively than they did in their 20-17 win over Tennessee on Sept. 26, when they recorded a season-low 61 rushing yards (94 yards and 3.1 yards per attempt when adjusted to exclude sacks).

Venables' run defense is a respectable 42nd nationally, allowing 115.5 yards per game. Oklahoma is 36th in FBS in yards per rushing attempt allowed (3.23) and is tied with the Longhorns for allowing the third-fewest 10-plus-yard runs among SEC defenses (13).

Still, the challenge the Sooners face stopping the Texas running game isn't as daunting on paper as what's in front of Oklahoma on the other side of the ball. Ben Arbuckle's offense will try to establish the run against a Longhorn defense allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game (99.3, ranked No. 26 nationally) while holding opponents to under three yards per rushing attempt (2.84 yards per carry allowed is No. 18 in FBS).

Oklahoma enters the game with the 131st-ranked rushing offense in the country (99 yards per game) and is 133rd nationally in yards per rushing attempt (2.93). Stanford is the only FBS offense with fewer 10-plus-yard runs than the Sooners (nine).

The advanced statistics paint Oklahoma's running game in a less favorable light. According to CFBData.com, the Sooners are last in the SEC in line yards per carry (2.5), second-level rushing yards, open-field rushing yards, stuff rate and power success rate.

TURNOVERS

The winner of the turnover margin has won 19 of the last 28 meetings. That includes the last four games, with Texas racking up a plus-4 in turnover margin in the last two seasons (plus-5 in Sarkisian’s three wins).

Since 1999, the team that wins the rushing yardage battle and the turnover margin in the same game is 17-0.

Playing turnover-free football helped the Longhorns weather the storm in last season’s win over Oklahoma. The Sooners, meanwhile, couldn’t recover from John Mateer’s three interceptions, including one right before halftime that was equal parts a bad decision by Mateer and questionable clock management by Venables.

Texas left Knoxville with a win despite losing the turnover battle, even if one of the lost turnovers was an onside kick recovery by the Vols that the SEC later clarified was an illegal kick. While the Longhorns are even in turnover margin on the season, Oklahoma’s minus-4 deficit (tied for the worst among Power Four clubs) includes an SEC-leading 10 giveaways, with six fumbles lost tied for the second-most in FBS.

THIRD-DOWN EFFICIENCY

Somehow, despite facing third-and-7 or more 11 times, Texas was 10-for-17 on third down in last year’s Red River Shootout while facing an average to-go distance of nine yards. The Longhorns can’t expect the same results in third-and-long situations against a Sooner defense that’s held opponents to a 23.1-percent third-down conversion rate (12-for-52) through four games, the third-best mark in the country.

Even though Texas was 3-for-12 on third down in its win over Tennessee, it's still a top-20 offense in college football on third down, moving the chains at a 50-percent clip (30-for-60). A 9-for-16 effort in the team’s Sept. 12 win over Ohio State included a 4-for-5 showing in the fourth quarter.

Will Muschamp’s defense has performed well enough on third down in the last two games to bolster a No. 48 national ranking in third-down defense (34.6 percent conversion rate allowed). Texas held UTSA and the Vols to a combined 5-for-28 on third down; the Longhorns are tied for No. 35 nationally and third in the SEC on fourth down (3-for-8), with only Tennessee (0-for-5) and LSU (1-for-4) boasting better fourth-down defenses.

The current trend bodes well for Texas against an Oklahoma offense that’s a combined 10-for-32 on third down in its last two losses to the Longhorns. The Sooners are 109th nationally on third down this season (18-for-53), including a combined 5-for-27 (18.5 percent) effort in losses to Michigan and Georgia.

SACKS

The 11 sacks the Texas defense has piled up in two consecutive wins over Oklahoma almost matches the historic 10-sack game the Longhorns recorded in their road win over Tennessee. Texas’ run defense in Dallas has opened the door to get after the quarterback; the Longhorns got Mateer on the ground five times in an upset victory in 2025.

While Oklahoma finished last season’s loss to Texas with 12 tackles for loss, only one of those was a sack of Manning, which came on the Longhorns’ first possession. The offensive line’s protection and Manning’s ability to escape pressure minimized negative plays on a day when the offense struggled to stay on schedule.

This season, Manning has been a more effective passer under pressure than Mateer.

According to Pro Football Focus, Manning (pressured on 43 of 146 dropbacks) is 14-for-26 for 190 yards and a touchdown under pressure, with four big-time throws, one turnover-worthy play and an adjusted completion percentage of 71.4. Mateer (pressured on 46 of 127 dropbacks) is 16-for-32 for 237 yards and two touchdowns, but has thrown two interceptions, has committed five turnover-worthy plays and has an adjusted completion percentage of 55.2.

Mateer has been better at preventing pressure from turning into sacks. His pressure-to-sack rate of 15.2 percent (seven sacks on 46 pressures) is on track to be better than his 2025 mark of 19.7 percent (27 sacks on 137 pressured dropbacks).

Sacked on 13.3 percent of the pressures Texas allowed last season when he was behind center (22 sacks on 165 pressured dropbacks), Manning has been sacked 10 times in four games. His 23.3 percent pressure-to-sack rate is the fifth-highest among 17 SEC quarterbacks who’ve been pressured at least 25 times.

Making these two quarterbacks feel the heat is only part of the battle. Getting home and getting the quarterback on the ground is a formidable challenge for two aggressive, talented defenses.

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[Jeff Howe]

There's a reason why the core principles of football (run the ball, stop the run, protect the ball, take it away, execute critical situations) apply in this game, more so than others on the schedule.

You can't hide from physicality in Dallas. The more physical, disciplined team wins the Red River Shootout.

The team that wins is usually the one that shows up ready for a fistfight and hopes a football game breaks out.

The discipline usually shines through in the more experienced team. If you've never played in the game, there's nothing that prepares you for the first time.

[Dread-headed Texan]

😂 if there's one thing my man Jeff is going to do it's keep your eyes busy for a minute or two. Every single time I open a thread I'm like, cool story bro, but I'm not reading all that. Next thing you know, I'm at the last sentence, saying to myself he got me again🤘🏿 Keep em coming and I'll keep reading! 

[JR Smith]

Great read Jeff, hope to start off fast and hopefully Mateer can gift us one of those glorious TOs like the one against Georgia. OUs o-line will not be able to withstand the pressure of our D-line but I hope the right side of our Oline has a much better day than they did against Tennessee. 

[Mark Futrell]

Great Stuff Jeff! Love It!!! Terrific Content and something to really lean into. Hook'em!!!