OTF Premium Has Steve Sarkisian found a formula for success with Arch Manning?

[Jeff Howe]

AUSTIN, Texas — More than two weeks ago, after a forgettable offensive showing in a 27-24 loss to Florida, Steve Sarkisian sat down with Arch Manning to discuss whether Texas would turn to KJ Lacey if QB1 couldn’t right the ship.

On Monday, two days after Manning's three touchdown passes highlighted a 16-for-20, 220-yard performance in a 31-3 rout of Mississippi State, Sarkisian gave Manning a ringing endorsement.

While answering a question about the offensive line during his weekly news conference, Sarkisian expressed the utmost confidence in Manning ahead of the 10th-ranked Longhorns’ trip to No. 19 Missouri on Saturday (11 a.m., ABC).

“Honestly, I've never felt better about Arch Manning than I do this week,” Sarkisian said. “This guy is ready. He's a warrior. He's tough. His competitive spirit is extremely high. I thought he willed us to play football on the offensive side last week. That's what a quarterback does.

“What a difference a few weeks make.”

Whether Manning’s arrow is pointing upward after Texas (6-2, 3-2 SEC) faces a Tiger defense that ranks 16th nationally against the run (98.3 yards per game and 2.94 yards per carry allowed), 23rd in scoring defense (18.4 points per game allowed) and 37th in total defense (325.1 yards per game and 4.82 yards per play allowed) remains to be seen. Nevertheless, along with Missouri (6-2, 3-2) entering the game with a pass defense that’s tied for 92nd in FBS (226.9 yards per game allowed), the chances are favorable for Manning to build two winning performances because Sarkisian’s confidence could be rooted in the fact that he’s found a formula for success behind center that the Longhorns can replicate.

The formula involves three things:

— Making the quick game and screens the focal point of the passing attack

After the win over the Bulldogs, 35 of Manning’s 48 pass attempts in his last two games were behind the line of scrimmage or short (0-9 yards downfield) based on Pro Football Focus’ four charted passing depths. Manning completed 28 attempts (72.9 percent of his charted-depth attempts) from those depths for 257 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

Manning is 13-for-13 for 66 yards during the two-game winning streak. Short throws are more than just screens; hitches, slants, stop routes and underneath targets to running backs and tight ends force Manning to get the ball out quickly.

A lot has been made about Manning holding onto the ball too long and rightfully so. According to PFF, Manning’s average time to throw this season is 2.99 seconds. Among 187 FBS quarterbacks who’ve recorded at least 50 dropbacks this season, Manning’s time is tied for the 34th-longest in the country.

Holding onto the ball too long compounds Texas’ pass protection issues. Manning’s pressure-to-sack rate of 27.8 percent is pacing well ahead of his 2025 ratio (13.3 percent) and is on track to be the highest pressure-to-sack rate for a Longhorn starting quarterback since Shane Buechele in 2016 (31.3 percent).

It should come as no surprise then that Manning is effective and efficient when he gets rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds. According to PFF, Manning gets the job done at a high level when the ball is out of his hands in less than 2.5 seconds (it only happens on 39.4 percent of his dropbacks, which is tied for 150th among the 187 qualifying FBS quarterbacks); he’s completing 72.8 percent of his passes (75-for-103) for 681 yards, with nine touchdowns (tied for 18th in FBS) and one interception.

The quick game works. If Sarkisian continues to lean into it, it could morph into an offensive fulcrum.

— Limiting throws beyond 10 yards downfield to schemed-up deep shots

According to PFF, Manning has only attempted four intermediate (10-19 yards) throws in the last two games (3-for-4, 46 yards and a touchdown), accounting for 8.3 percent of his attempts to a charted depth. That pales in comparison to the first six games of the season, when 23.8 percent of his charted-depth throws were in the intermediate game.

Given the offense’s pass protection struggles and Manning’s sack avoidance (or lack thereof), Sarkisian might've decided the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.

When Manning holds the ball for 2.5 seconds or longer, which has happened on 60.6 percent of his dropbacks, the results have been disastrous. According to PFF, Manning's completion percentage plummets to 57.5 percent in those situations; his six interceptions are tied for the fourth-most in FBS and he's been sacked 22 times (only four FBS quarterbacks have been sacked more times when holding onto the ball that long).

Still, the Texas offense needs explosive plays. Sarkisian has settled on crafting carefully dialed-up deep shots to get the job done.

Manning has thrown nine deep balls (20 yards or more downfield) in the last two weeks, accounting for 18.8 percent of his total attempts to specific depths. Two of Manning’s three completions on deep balls against Ole Miss and Mississippi State went for touchdowns (a 50-yarder to Ryan Wingo against the Rebels and a 42-yarder to Emmett Mosley V against the Bulldogs); overall, he’s 3-for-9 on deep shots for 129 yards, with only one of his deep throws getting intercepted (three interceptions on deep throws through the first six games).

— Leaning on Manning’s legs as a weapon in the running game

Sarkisian has been hesitant to rely on designed runs for Manning. Nevertheless, the numbers suggest he’s accepted that those plays are one of the most effective ways the Longhorns can move the ball.

After Manning recorded six rushing attempts on designed runs through the first six games (according to PFF), he’s carried the ball nine times on such plays in the last two weeks. Those nine carries have netted Texas 31 yards and resulted in four first downs, with two of them going for touchdowns (both against Ole Miss).

Manning also seems more sure of himself when scrambling. While his 24 scrambles through the first six games saw him gain yards that were effectively empty calories (positive yards well short of the line to gain on third down, for instance), Manning’s four scrambles in the last two games have helped the offense move the chains.

Manning’s lone scramble for 19 yards in the win over Ole Miss came on third-and-17, two plays before his second-quarter touchdown pass to Wingo. Two of Manning’s three scrambles in the win over Mississippi State moved the chains, including a 10-yard scramble on third-and-9 en route to a second-quarter field goal by Gianni Spetic.

Manning's 2026 season hasn't played out the way anybody hoped. Still, if the current formula can be replicated and Manning continues to grow, the Longhorns have a realistic path to reach the College Football Playoff.

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[Jeff Howe]

Shoutout to @Rod Babers for putting this theory in front of me. I ran with it, dove through the numbers and there's something there.

[JMarquette]

Now how do we fix OL?

[Jeff Howe]

4 minutes ago, JMarquette said:

Now how do we fix OL?

Define fix?

You can work around it, but the only true fixes are offseason fixes. If Sark and/or Flood wanted to change personnel, they would've done so by now. That's always an option, but the offensive line is what it is.

[HookedOnTF]

Great stuff Jeff! Curious if Rod also still tracks targets to motion. I read more often than I can watch videos, so not sure if he's covered it live.

[MikeyHookEm]

Just now, Jeff Howe said:

Define fix?

You can work around it, but the only true fixes are offseason fixes. If Sark and/or Flood wanted to change personnel, they would've done so by now. That's always an option, but the offensive line is what it is.

I mean, Arch "was what he was" until he wasnt and started playing better. 

[HookedOnTF]

9 minutes ago, JMarquette said:

Now how do we fix OL?

I think the answer is we dont - we adapt

[MikeyHookEm]

@Jeff Howe please email this to Sark... too many big games for him not to know these stats 🤣

[William Gillean]

11 minutes ago, JMarquette said:

Now how do we fix OL?

By making the defense pay for run blitzing with RPOs where the LBs blitzed from.

By making the defense pay for pass blitzing with RB draws and simple RB screens.

They'll back off the OL pressure if they get burned.

Adding more bodies to the OL hasn't helped.

Need to let Arch audible and have the "option" to make the defense wrong.

[BurntOrangeHorn]

6 minutes ago, MikeyHookEm said:

I mean, Arch "was what he was" until he wasnt and started playing better. 

I think Arch has been a little hard headed accepting coaching.  No one is telling him to hold the ball 3 seconds not to to throw deep into double coverage.

The short game with quick right now throws is something Arch needs to execute.  He watched Quinn for 3 years.  Hopefully something stuck, like checking blocking assignments before the snap.

At least Arch has seemingly learned short passes with correct location and touch are better then 100 mph missiles.

🤘🏻🤘🏼🤘🤘🏽🤘🏾🤘🏿

Edited 29 minutes ago by BurntOrangeHorn

[HookedOnTF]

2 minutes ago, MikeyHookEm said:

@Jeff Howe please email this to Sark... too many big games for him not to know these stats 🤣

Stephen.a.Sarkisian@utexas.edu ?!

[Jeff Howe]

5 minutes ago, MikeyHookEm said:

I mean, Arch "was what he was" until he wasnt and started playing better. 

The offensive line's ceiling is lower than Arch's (significantly so, IMO).

[camridleyfan]

1 minute ago, HookedOnTF said:

Stephen.a.Sarkisian@utexas.edu ?!

Please don’t dox my work email

[HookedOnTF]

Just now, BurntOrangeHorn said:

I think Arch has been a little hard headed accepting coaching.  No one is telling him to hold the ball 3 seconds not to to throw deep into double coverage.

The short game with quick right now throws is something Arch needs to execute.  He watched Quinn for 3 years.  Hopefully something stuck, like checking blocking assignments before the snap.

🤘🏻🤘🏼🤘🤘🏽🤘🏾🤘🏿

What i wonder - forget coaching - does he not have weekly chats with his uncles? Seriously.

[MikeyHookEm]

2 minutes ago, BurntOrangeHorn said:

I think Arch has been a little hard headed accepting coaching.  No one is telling him to hold the ball 3 seconds not to to throw deep into double coverage.

The short game with quick right now throws is something Arch needs to execute.  He watched Quinn for 3 years.  Hopefully something stuck, like checking blocking assignments before the snap.

🤘🏻🤘🏼🤘🤘🏽🤘🏾🤘🏿

holding onto the ball for ~.2-.4 seconds too long. the offensive line MUST hold their blocks longer. 

[MikeyHookEm]

3 minutes ago, Jeff Howe said:

The offensive line's ceiling is lower than Arch's (significantly so, IMO).

I agree fully. i am just saying there has to be a way to help right this ship. a simple edge DT twist is being missed way too many times. I mean simple stuff

[JMarquette]

8 minutes ago, Jeff Howe said:

The offensive line's ceiling is lower than Arch's (significantly so, IMO).

Haha, nice. Just a disaster class by Kyle Flood. 

[MikeyHookEm]

1 minute ago, JMarquette said:

Haha, nice. Just a disaster class by Kyle Flood. 

yeah no clue how Seymore beats sikroski out at LG. gets injured (must be recovered by now) and then we dont see him at all. gotta give him some run at center

[Mark Futrell]

All I can say is this: That is Rod Babers theory and it is Jeff Howe's work and words. I agree with the above. But, that doesn't mean that Sark agrees with the conclusion. Lets face it, there are plenty of Knowledgeable Fans on this website that have been saying this for Months. Bottom line is this: Arch is a 4 year player in a system that has had no turnover. He had a mentor in Quinn Ewers. He is in his 2nd year as a starter notching up I think 23 Starts now, maybe 24. If after all that, I mean that is a runway that you can land a 747 on, and Sark has only now found a formula for success for Arch Manning......I think those are your words, not Sark's. I hope Sark did not confess that......But, boy oh boy, if that is the case and Sark has only now found a formula for success, I don't know what to tell you. I mean, sacrifice a turkey early and sit on the floor in the kitchen with some cheap Bourbon and toss up some bones and see where they land. For me and I know many others, this is an obvious formula that if implemented by Sark then this Texas Team would not have lost two games to two Unranked Teams and todays Team would not be sweating The Playoffs. Hook'em!!!

Edited 10 minutes ago by Mark Futrell

[Hank South]

Great read Jeff!