Steven Schrader Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 41 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said: I’m all up in this site … https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/07/category-4-beryl-rips-through-the-windward-islands/ try this one on for size: windy tv 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neil Leininger Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 I think Texas is safe because of the heat dome that is coming. I'd gladly trade off a week+ of 100 for no Beryl. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bierce Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 (edited) 1 hour ago, Neil Leininger said: I think Texas is safe because of the heat dome that is coming. I'd gladly trade off a week+ of 100 for no Beryl. Two of four computer models on weather underground show Beryl's eye hitting around Brownsville, and one has it heading to landfall between Corpus and Victoria. It should lose steam before and during crossing the Yucatan, but it could regenerate in the Gulf. Three days ago, forecasters were predicting 115 mph max winds. It is now at 155. Let us hope sheer and landfall in the Yucatan causes it to dissipate. I pay a lot of attention to this stuff because I lived in Corpus for 27 years and my lady love is still in Portland. Portland, Texas, that is. As an amusing side note, let me tell you about a friend of a friend and Harvey. He had a little trailer in a mobile home park in the Rockport area, which was bull's-eyed by Harvey. He managed to get the last bunch of anchors, tied his trailer down, filled every container he could with water, and set them in the trailer. Then he stayed in the trailer and rode the hurricane out. My friend went there the next day and sent me a video panning 360 degrees around the trailer park. Total devastation. Trees uprooted. Mobile homes turned over. Her friend's trailer sat upright, the only thing standing in the trailer park. He still swore to never do that again. Edited July 2 by bierce 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Blake Munroe Posted July 2 Moderators Share Posted July 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tuco Ramirez Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Those winds. Yikes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Blake Munroe Posted July 2 Moderators Share Posted July 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zachery Nelson Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Praying for everyone in its path. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted July 2 Author Moderators Share Posted July 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texas fan in Georgia Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 A little over a month with no rain and 95+ here in the peach st. Hoping we at least get some outter bands from this thing… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bierce Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Looks like Central Texas will get some rain from this. Computer models keep shifting slightly north, though much uncertainty about degree of recharge in the gulf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerry K Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 14 hours ago, Neil Leininger said: I think Texas is safe because of the heat dome that is coming. I'd gladly trade off a week+ of 100 for no Beryl. This isn’t true. It’s actually just the opposite. High pressure is moving away from Texas opening the door for a tropical system to move in. That combined with the already warmer than average water temps in the gulf means Beryl could build in strength while he’s in the gulf. Wherever it lands it’s not going to be good. Still early no doubt but a Texas landfall can’t be ruled out at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tuco Ramirez Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Yeah, we may even get rain this weekend because the heat dome is moving away. This could open the door for Beryl to move toward Texas. I saw one trajectory (one of many) that had the storm hitting the Port A area though a lot can change in a week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bierce Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 7 minutes ago, Jerry K said: This isn’t true. It’s actually just the opposite. High pressure is moving away from Texas opening the door for a tropical system to move in. That combined with the already warmer than average water temps in the gulf means Beryl could build in strength while he’s in the gulf. Wherever it lands it’s not going to be good. Still early no doubt but a Texas landfall can’t be ruled out at this point. Texas landfall as likely as not, and a majority of computer models say it will happen. https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2024/hurricane-beryl?map=model The question is going to be how much Beryl can recharge in the gulf. Shear conditions are still favoring Beryl weakening on the way to the Yucatan and being unable to regain much strength in the gulf, but those can change. The intensity forecast also remains uncertain. There is general agreement in the guidance that Beryl should weaken due to westerly shear and possible land interaction as it approaches Jamaica. However, some of the guidance forecasts a weakening rate that looks somewhat unlikely given the current intensity and structure of the hurricane. The new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a major hurricane when it passes near Jamaica and still be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula, and this portion of the forecast lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance. There is considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, partly due to uncertainties as to how long the storm will remain over water and partly due to uncertainties in how the cyclone will interact with an upper-level trough to the west. This part of the forecast lies in the middle of the spread-out intensity guidance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerry K Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 (edited) 6 minutes ago, bierce said: Texas landfall as likely as not, and a majority of computer models say it will happen. I sure hope not! But I do think it’s a good possibility at this point. Edited July 2 by Jerry K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbro52 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 More models are showing Texas landfall not good fellas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted July 3 Author Moderators Share Posted July 3 If Beryl heads in 30 miles south of Brownsville ... huge rain event for SPI to Corpus and up into the lower Hill Country IMO 40-60 miles one way or the other will make all the difference, as it normally does with landfalls. If it comes in 20-30 miles north of SPI ... a stronger storm and effects will be felt more heavily up into the Houston area (Lake Livingstong dam is already on the brink). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bierce Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 HWRF is still the outlier showing Beryl on a more northerly track, staying in the gulf longer, recharging more, and threatening landfall north of Corpus. The rest show Beryl hitting farther south with less strength. HWRF has been an excellent model in recent years regarding intensity, but it has been less accurate than NHC tracking regarding direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THookem Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neil Leininger Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Looks like Brownsville most likely. Hope to see some rain in Houston out of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bierce Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 2 hours ago, Neil Leininger said: Looks like Brownsville most likely. Hope to see some rain in Houston out of it. If either the HWRF or GFS models prove accurate, Houston will get at least some rain. GFS has Beryl nearing landfall just south of Brownsville but traveling north with the eye remaining just off the coast instead of coming inland. That's the sort of thing that will cause incredible rainfall totals even if wind strength is diminished somewhat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horn95 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bierce Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 (edited) Beryl hitting shear and weakening. Latest projections from GFS and HWRF show a westward shift, forcing Beryl to cross closer to the center of the Yucatan, further weakening it, and putting Beryl unlikely to make landfall north or much north of Brownsville. Both have it on a nw track upon landfall, but GFS in Tamaulipas heading through Nuevo Leon into Coahuila and HWRF on this side of the Rio Grande. Both will still put a lot of rain in South Texas, but only HWRF shows much chance for heavy rain this far north. Beryl is still kind of small for a Category 4 storm. Edited July 3 by bierce 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted July 3 Author Moderators Share Posted July 3 Still a Cat 4 after beating the shear is kind of wild ... I say beating the shear because a lot of the models/forecasters were saying Cat 2/1 coming off coast of Jamaica Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tuco Ramirez Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 The last I saw the shear ended east of the Yucatán and no shear in the Gulf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bierce Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 9 minutes ago, Tuco Ramirez said: The last I saw the shear ended east of the Yucatán and no shear in the Gulf. Right. Recharge in the gulf is likely after further weakening in the western Caribbean and crossing the Yucatan, but the degree of recharge is uncertain, and the projected track is more southerly than it was early yesterday. The composite and NHC are anticipating west-northwesterly movement through the Yucatan with a slow turn to a northwesterly track in the gulf, but still landfall in northern Mexico at borderline category 1 strength. If Beryl turns more to the north or sooner to the north, then it could spend a lot more time in the gulf and blow up into a much stronger hurricane by the time it comes to shore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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