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I have a two part question that I was hoping that Gerry, Bobby or CJ could discuss.  Either on Coffee & Football or in this tread if they are able.   Anyone else for that matter who cares to provide their thoughts and insight would be welcomed.

After listening to Gerry & CJ on the recruiting breakdown yesterday, it got me thinking about our quarterback of the future. Quinn will be gone after the 2024 season.  We all assume that Arch will be the starter for 2025 & 2026 season.  What about 2027?  I say 2027 because neither of Arch’s uncles declared early for the draft.  Both stayed to finish out their eligibility I believe.  Unlike Quinn who skipped his senior year to start his NFL clock early, Arch seems to want to enjoy his college experience and playing college football.  With that being the case, how far out is it that Arch may stay for four or even five years? Technically, he redshirted last year.  So that would mean he is entering the 2024 season as a redshirt freshman.  Now, if UT goes on a wins a national championship in either 2024 or 2025, he would not really have a reason to return.  However, depending on the talent around him, do you think Arch may use all his eligibility?  I know most guys would bolt for NFL money, but the Mannings are on a different timeline than most people.

Which brings me to my second question.  Who out of Bell or Lacy would be the next man up?  Not discounting Trey Owens as he is currently on campus.  But out of Lacy and Bell, who is more talented to run Sarks offense?  Who is more likely to still be around in 2027?  Dia Bell has only been committed for a short period of time, but he strikes me as someone who may be willing to be a bit more patient than Lacy.  I only say this because Lacy was looking around after he committed to UT.  I know he has firmed up his commitment recently, but if Arch was to stay until 2027, would Lacy be willing to wait that long to take over.  I would say no, but just curious what everyone else thinks.  

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Also, off the top of my head, here's a list of 4 + QBs at Texas that never developed into bona fide sustained starters over the last 15 years -

GG (transfer)

David Ash (injuries)

Tyrone Swoopes

Jerrod Heard

Shane Beuchele (transfer)

Hudson Card (transfer)

Maalik Murphy (transfer)

 

We all want these QB commits to make it to UT and succeed, but the hit rate is not 100%.

Edited by horns96
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Great question. I've been thinking about this also. I think it's quite possible that Arch plays 3 years at Texas, given the way the Mannings view developing. If that happens, I would think KJ and Trey both portal out, leaving Dia,and of course Sark will keep bringing in quality at that position. 

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9 hours ago, TarrantCoHorn said:

I remember back when I was in college not wanting Andrew Luck to mess up the Garrett Gilbert recruitment. LOL. Keep stacking quality QBs and I’ll be happy. Sarks killing it. 

Seen Luck play in person, and I was like ‘Stanford has another Elway’

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9 hours ago, horns96 said:

Also, off the top of my head, here's a list of 4 + QBs at Texas that never developed into bona fide sustained starters over the last 15 years -

GG (transfer)

David Ash (injuries)

Tyrone Swoopes

Jerrod Heard

Shane Beuchele (transfer)

Hudson Card (transfer)

Maalik Murphy (transfer)

 

We all want these QB commits to make it to UT and succeed, but the hit rate is not 100%.

You're not kidding!  I live through all that and more.

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1 hour ago, Adam Lane said:

You're not kidding!  I live through all that and more.

With each of those quarterback’s listed above, they did not have a lot of time to develop.  They were kind of thrust into a situation that was not great for them or us.  As Sark has said, you need time to mature as a quarterback. 
 

Long gone are the days of a quarterback taking there first meaningful snaps their redshirt sophomore or junior season.  Now, if they are not starting by their freshman or sophomore year they are hitting the portal. 
 

David Ash had a lot of potential, but he had multiple concussions during his time at Texas.  That was do in part to how bad our offensive line had become and him having no protection.  Swoopes could have been good if he had more time to develop and mature.  But that was not the case back then.  Same for our offensive linemen. Back then, if you were somewhat serviceable you were starting for us.  Sark has Texas on the right track now. 

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It's an interesting question. I would have to be absolutely certain that either is definitively a better option than Trey Owens. He has continued beyond the spring game to be an impressive young arm for Texas this offseason.

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Provided health remains intact here’s how I see it playing out:

2024: Ewers

2025: Arch

2026: Arch

2027: Owens

2028: Owens

2029: Bell

2030: Bell

I believe Lacey will eventually transfer

Edited by John Moore
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2 minutes ago, John Moore said:

Provided health remains intact here’s how I see it playing out:

2024: Ewers

2025: Arch

2026: Arch

2027: Owens

2028: Owens

2029: Bell

2030: Bell

I believe Lacey will eventually transfer

Just for fun.  What if it was Russell instead of KJ?  His stock is through the roof right now.  Funny how it all shakes out....you know?

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We're talking about what will happen three years, with guys that are still in high school. Who knows. Could be none of them. Could be a portal dude. Sark could be coaching the Dallas Cowboys, etc. 

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12 minutes ago, CJ Vogel said:

It's an interesting question. I would have to be absolutely certain that either is definitively a better option than Trey Owens. He has continued beyond the spring game to be an impressive young arm for Texas this offseason.

Exactly.  I only said KJ & Dia because there is a lot more hype around them than there was Trey.  Plus, they seem to have a lot more pull with other recruits than Owens did coming out of high school.  Which does not mean anything once they are on campus.  Owens could be the starter after Arch is gone and with enough talent around him, lead UT to a national championship.  I would welcome any form of the above as our future starter if that means we are competing for championships.

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23 minutes ago, Zacharyhorn said:

Exactly.  I only said KJ & Dia because there is a lot more hype around them than there was Trey.  Plus, they seem to have a lot more pull with other recruits than Owens did coming out of high school.  Which does not mean anything once they are on campus.  Owens could be the starter after Arch is gone and with enough talent around him, lead UT to a national championship.  I would welcome any form of the above as our future starter if that means we are competing for championships.

Absolutely!!!

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I have no opinion on who's next but would clarify one thing that you said.  Manning will start two years, which I guess could start this year if Quinn is injured or struggles.  The reason he will start two years is that the bust rate for NFL quarterbacks who only start one season in college is very high.

 

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14 hours ago, Derek Handler said:

Trey Owens was pretty impressive in the Spring game.  I don't see lacy beating him out.  But, alot can happen in 3 years...

Got a feeling Trey Owens won’t seat for three years.

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13 minutes ago, robertcook91 said:

I have no opinion on who's next but would clarify one thing that you said.  Manning will start two years, which I guess could start this year if Quinn is injured or struggles.  The reason he will start two years is that the bust rate for NFL quarterbacks who only start one season in college is very high.

 

I think he stays through his eligibility.....It's the Manning way!

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On 7/25/2024 at 3:23 AM, harveycmd said:

I think Lacy is the odd man out. After Arch we either go to Owens or Bell. If Arch stays to play three years, it's probably straight to Bell. If Arch stays two years, I say Owens for a year.

Realizing my comment is unfair... Lacey just looks far too small. I know he's got time to develop, but he appears borderline frail. It just shows how much credit Sark gets for identifying these players so early.

 

 

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On 7/25/2024 at 11:12 AM, John Moore said:

Provided health remains intact here’s how I see it playing out:

2024: Ewers

2025: Arch

2026: Arch

2027: Owens

2028: Owens

2029: Bell

2030: Bell

I believe Lacey will eventually transfer

I believe this is the plan

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On 7/25/2024 at 3:23 AM, harveycmd said:

I think Lacy is the odd man out. After Arch we either go to Owens or Bell. If Arch stays to play three years, it's probably straight to Bell. If Arch stays two years, I say Owens for a year.

Hard to see Owen’s sitting for 3 years w his talent level.  I think he portals out. 

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