Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted November 17 Moderators Share Posted November 17 College Football Playoff: Six SEC teams for four spots The first ever 12 team college football playoff is about to get very interesting in the SEC with Ole Miss beating Georgia Saturday. It's going to take 10-2 from the SEC and Big 10 to get in with the month of November leading to survive and advance, and then it may still not be enough in the SEC. OTF loves your chances! These two teams in the Big 10 conference are in barring a collapse. Oregon (11-0) - vs. Washington. The Ducks are the first team that is in, regardless of their final game. Indiana (10-0) - at Ohio State and vs. Purdue. Even with a loss, Indiana should beat Purdue to finish 11-1 and be in the CFP. Notre Dame favored to run the table Notre Dame (9-1) - vs. Army and at USC. A 10-2 Notre Dame not likely to get in due to Northern Illinois loss. They must win out. Margin of error down to one more loss for two Big 10 teams Ohio State (9-1) - vs. Indiana and vs. Michigan Penn State (9-1) - at Minnesota and vs. Maryland Six SEC teams still have a shot for four spots Texas (9-1) - vs. Kentucky and at Texas A&M Georgia (8-2) - vs. UMass and vs. Georgia Tech Ole Miss (8-2) - at Florida and vs. Mississippi State Alabama (8-2) - at Oklahoma and vs. Auburn Tennessee (8-2) - vs. UTEP and at Vanderbilt Texas A&M (8-2) - at Auburn and vs. Texas Three ACC teams for one spot SMU (9-1, 6-0) - at Virginia and vs. California Clemson (8-2, 7-1) - vs. The Citadel and vs. South Carolina Miami (9-1, 5-1) - vs. Wake Forest and at Syracuse A SMU 11-1 that loses in the ACC Championship game would not likely get in over 10-2 SEC or Big 10 teams. Big 12 has five remaining for one spot The Big 12 Championship Game winner is the only team that will get in the college football playoff. BYU (9-1, 6-1) took their first loss of the season vs. Kansas. The Cougars now head to Tempe to take on a hot Arizona State team. Colorado (8-2, 6-1) - at Kansas and vs. Oklahoma State Iowa State (8-2, 5-2) - at Utah and vs. Kansas State Arizona State (8-2, 5-2) - vs. BYU and at Arizona. Arizona State is two wins away from likely playing the Big 12 Championship Game. Group of 5 favorite Boise State remains the favorite after a a 42-21 win at San Jose State. BSU (9-1) - Wyoming and vs. Oregon State The predicted 12 spots by conference Big 10 - 4 SEC - 4 ACC - 1 Big 12 - 1 Group of 5 - 1 Notre Dame 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoHorns1 Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 Texas controls its own destiny, can’t ask for more. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted November 17 Author Moderators Share Posted November 17 My 12 most likely right now: Oregon Ohio State Penn State Indiana Texas Georgia Alabama Ole Miss Notre Dame Big 12 Championship Game winner ACC Championship Game winner Boise State 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevekap Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 Texas has to win out to make playoffs. Not for sure if a 10-2 Texas or 10-2 A&M get in . Assuming no upsets 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SamuraiKnight Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 I wonder if an SMU team that goes 8-0 in conference but slips up in the ACC championship game get in over a 6-2 Big 10 or SEC team that couldn’t even make the championship game. The committee said the would try not to penalize teams that lost for the first time in the CCG. Texas need to win out AND win the CCG to keep controlling its on destiny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerky Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 Appreciate it Gerry! Good stuff! Agree with it all but 1 possible and unlikely issue... Arguably Penn St has no margin for error and needs to win out to be certain to make the CFP. It's a grey area imo. A 10-2 Penn St might not be deserving of the CFP. The SEC may have a better 10-2 team with a better resume than a Penn St that stumbled with a late season upset. Penn St getting upset by Maryland or Minnesota late in the season would be a concerning loss should the SEC end with 6 teams with a 10-2 or better record. I'm not impressed with the Illinois win by Penn St. All 6 SEC teams in contention would be favored to beat Illinois. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyG Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 (edited) Does Texas still get in with a close loss to A&M over let's say Indiana and their 106th ranked SOS? I think strenght of schedule should actually play a much bigger role and teams ought to be rewarded for playing strong out of conference opponents instead of FCS cupcakes. Edited November 17 by TonyG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texas fan in Georgia Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 Need vandy to pull one out against Tennessee. Lot of talking heads this morning don’t think a 10-2 Texas would get in over them. And I’m not confident Quinn can handle A&M. Left a lot to be desired yesterday. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinkman_90 Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 I don’t think Indiana is a lock if they finish 11-1 with a loss to the buckeyes. People are talking about Texas weak SOS. Texas has the 38th ranked SOS. Indiana is 106th (!!!). They should be treated like a G5 if they lose next week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texas fan in Georgia Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 8 minutes ago, pinkman_90 said: I don’t think Indiana is a lock if they finish 11-1 with a loss to the buckeyes. People are talking about Texas weak SOS. Texas has the 38th ranked SOS. Indiana is 106th (!!!). They should be treated like a G5 if they lose next week. If they go into Columbus and are competitive and it’s back and forth coming down to the wire… they could definitely have an argument Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chennups Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 Going forward, if you're Notre Dame, is there any incentive to schedule tough games? It seems since they're independent, they. just have to finish with one loss and they'll always get in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assistant Regional Manager Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 (edited) Does Ole Miss beating Georgia offset the fact they probably have the two worst losses of any 10-2 team looking to get in (Kentucky, LSU)? I know everyone has penciled them in at 10-2 but their SOS will be lower than Texas’ at the end of the year and their non con schedule was Furman, Middle Tennessee State, Georgia Southern and Wake Forest. Edited November 17 by Assistant Regional Manager Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forrest J. Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 6 minutes ago, chennups said: Going forward, if you're Notre Dame, is there any incentive to schedule tough games? It seems since they're independent, they. just have to finish with one loss and they'll always get in. I agree and I don’t get why college football is so beholden to Notre Dame. Do they really still have that much cache with college football fans? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted November 17 Author Moderators Share Posted November 17 3 hours ago, Stevekap said: Texas has to win out to make playoffs. Not for sure if a 10-2 Texas or 10-2 A&M get in . Assuming no upsets Yep. Every SEC needs to cheer for USC to beat ND 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DZX158 Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 1 hour ago, Texas fan in Georgia said: If they go into Columbus and are competitive and it’s back and forth coming down to the wire… they could definitely have an argument Good discussion. To me If Indiana losses to OSU they are out. I think it’s that simple given they won’t have a win over Oregon, OSU, or Penn St to make up for a weak non-conference schedule. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cujonation83 Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 (edited) 1 hour ago, Texas fan in Georgia said: Need vandy to pull one out against Tennessee. Lot of talking heads this morning don’t think a 10-2 Texas would get in over them. And I’m not confident Quinn can handle A&M. Left a lot to be desired yesterday. What makes you think Reed and that offense can handle Texas? Edited November 17 by Cujonation83 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texas fan in Georgia Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 28 minutes ago, Cujonation83 said: What makes you think Reed and that offense can handle Texas? It’s not that I think that, but what makes you think Quinn can handle their pass rush? Elko is gonna be looking to light him up all night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cujonation83 Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 Just now, Texas fan in Georgia said: It’s not that I think that, but what makes you think Quinn can handle their pass rush? Elko is gonna be looking to light him up all night. That works both ways. Trust me, Aggy dline is good but they don't have the backend to exploit it like Georgia could. They lost one of their starting wr Allen last night as well. I expect Aggy pass rush to get home, but Texas has the skill players to consistently make plays better than Tamu can. Basically, it's who offense can be more consistent throughout the game. This is were Texas has an advantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bierce Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 6 hours ago, chennups said: Going forward, if you're Notre Dame, is there any incentive to schedule tough games? It seems since they're independent, they. just have to finish with one loss and they'll always get in. Incentive or no, they have scheduled plenty of games to be played over the next few years against USC, Miami, A&M, Clemson, Alabama, Michigan, Florida, and Florida State. While the bulk of the ACC teams aren't great, ND appears to be scheduling 9 games against P4 schools every year. I think their incentive is to have games that bring in eyeballs and $. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorn007 Posted Monday at 06:21 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:21 AM auburn 20 aggy 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted Monday at 12:47 PM Author Moderators Share Posted Monday at 12:47 PM 17 hours ago, DZX158 said: Good discussion. To me If Indiana losses to OSU they are out. I think it’s that simple given they won’t have a win over Oregon, OSU, or Penn St to make up for a weak non-conference schedule. That scenario wouldn't be good for Texas - if the Horns lose to the Aggies. IMO, would want Indiana in at 11-1. Committee would look at 10-2 Texas similar in that scenario. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glass Joe Posted Monday at 02:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:29 PM 19 hours ago, DZX158 said: Good discussion. To me If Indiana losses to OSU they are out. I think it’s that simple given they won’t have a win over Oregon, OSU, or Penn St to make up for a weak non-conference schedule. You could apply to same logic to Penn State as well. One loss @ home to Ohio State, and zero wins against any ranked opponents while not even playing Oregon or Indiana. That said, the Committee has Penn State sitting at #4 (ahead of many 2-loss SEC teams) and Indiana at #5. That suggests to me that even if Indiana loses to Ohio State, they will still be in line for an at-large spot with only one loss and being from a P2 conference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinkman_90 Posted Monday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:52 PM 2 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said: That scenario wouldn't be good for Texas - if the Horns lose to the Aggies. IMO, would want Indiana in at 11-1. Committee would look at 10-2 Texas similar in that scenario. Strong disagree. It would be a great thing. First it opens up a spot. Second, all the other teams that would be competing for said spot have a a much worse SOS to Texas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasLonghorns Posted Monday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:52 PM If Texas loses to A&M, we are out. Two losses and haven’t beat a single ranked opponent. It all comes down to the A&M game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Evans Posted Monday at 03:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:12 PM i think a 10-2 SEC team gets in over 11-1 Indiana. Indiana hasn't beat anybody, and should be treated as such. Hoping for OSU to blow them out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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