Bubble watch

[bierce]

Sunday's bubble games:

Xavier @ Seton Hall.

Seton Hall is awful.  Xavier has a week off before hosting Creighton.  That won't be a q1 game for Xavier, which is only 1-9 in q1 games, but it would be a very good q2 win.

tOSU @ UCLA

Would definitely be a q1 win for tOSU, but tOSU's problem isn't lack of q1 wins (it has 5), but the presence of q4 losses (4 so far).

 

[bierce]

Indiana got a big win over Purdue.  Probably not enough to get it back in the tournament, but it should get it on Next Four out lists. 

Xavier held on against a strong Seton Hall second half rally.  Will start supplanting Wake on many brackets.

tOSU about to lose @ UCLA unless fans make it too hard for UCLA to make ft.  

[bierce]

Monday's games of interest are UNC @ Florida State and Nebraska hosting Michigan.

Cronin had to wait 5 days, but he just got his 500th win. 

[bierce]

Interesting thing happening in the matrix right now.  Texas seems to be clinging to an 11 seed and relegated to a play-in game, but a lot of brackets are starting to put VCU, Drake, and UC San Diego on the 11 line and dropping the last at-large teams to the 12 line. 

[Brian Carter]

Does the committee consider $$ when looking at the seeding and overall bracketing?  I was thinking how Texas doesn't seem like a tourney team with the eye test but might make it due to SEC ties and brand recognition.  After the 32 automatic bids, it seems hard to believe that we would be one of the 36 best remaining teams especially if 12 or so of those will be consumed by the SEC alone.

[bierce]

1 hour ago, Brian Carter said:

Does the committee consider $$ when looking at the seeding and overall bracketing?  I was thinking how Texas doesn't seem like a tourney team with the eye test but might make it due to SEC ties and brand recognition.  After the 32 automatic bids, it seems hard to believe that we would be one of the 36 best remaining teams especially if 12 or so of those will be consumed by the SEC alone.

That's why the quad system was invented--to create a measuring stick by which the committee could excuse itself for keeping the Drakes, McNeeses, and UC San Diegos out if they lose in their conference tournaments.  Right 2024 Indiana State?  Right, 2023 North Texas?

But don't forget the 32 autobids will almost assuredly contain 6 or 7 of the top 36 teams, so you are looking at something more like the top 40-42 teams scrambling for at large bids. 

Even with that, Texas is now in a play-in game on a lot of brackets right now, and in a few cases Texas is skipped altogether. 

[bierce]

UNC 96-85.  UNC still has only one q1 win, but every q2 helps it.

I thought Nebraska was done after getting called for an intentional foul while down 4 with 3:30, but it turned out to be a brilliant foul.  Michigan missed both ft and stepped out of bounds after catching the inbound pass.

But Nebraska has bricked a pair of threes in its subsequent possessions.  Still 45-41 with 1:55 left, Michigan ball.

[bierce]

Down 45-44 under 30 to go, NU had to start fouling.  Michigan made the first two.  NU was fouled in return and made two.  Then Michigan missed a front end, NU got it up court in a hurry but took and missed a rushed three when it had time to work for a better shot.  Michigan cleared the long rebound, was fouled with 2.6 seconds left and made both ft.  Nebraska inbounded with a 65 foot pass to Buyunktcel, who took a dribble, let fly from the arc, and missed.  Nebraska loses 49-46.  Still in the field, but still on the bubble.  A win would have been its 6th q1 win, which would have virtually guaranteed a spot.  

[bierce]

Tuesday's bubble action

Georgia hosts Florida.  Still not too late for a team that beat St. John's to get in with a 7-11 conference record, but Georgia has to start winning now.  Four game losing streak has dropped it out of even most First Four in mentions.

Cincy hosts Baylor.  I think Cincy is done, but a win here followed by a win @ Houston (chuckle, snort) could resurrect it.

Pitt hosts Ga Tech.  Win won't help it.  Only a win @ Louisville this weekend and a good conference tournament showing can.

WVU hosts TCU.  WVU still hanging on for dear life, but trending wrong and on a 3-7 run.  Can still get in if it avoids bad losses.  This would be only a q2, since TCU has climbed into the top 75. 

UNM @ SDSU.  My must watch game of the night.  While I doubt we will hire Richard Pitino, I'm convinced he would be better than a lot of more expensive options, and one P5 school or another will hire him this spring.  I don't see him staying at UNM another year since the MWC is splitting apart, and the bigger draw schools are leaving to join Oregon State and Washington State in a reconfigured Pac 12.  I don't think Pitino will stick around to coach in a severely diminished conference.  

[Brian Carter]

Watching this Tech / UH game and we would get run out of the gym the way they are playing.  

[bierce]

1 minute ago, Brian Carter said:

Watching this Tech / UH game and we would get run out of the gym the way they are playing.  

We've been run out of the gym most times we played against a top 35 team outside of Austin, and twice here.  Mississippi is about the only exception. 

[bierce]

Did Tech really only play 6 players?

[BobInHouston]

13 hours ago, bierce said:

Did Tech really only play 6 players?

Yes, two guys were out.

[BobInHouston]

Latest update of the Matrix has Texas hanging on as the first No. 11. Seems like they need four more wins before SS unless everyone else keeps losing, which also is happening.

[John Moore]

[bierce]

41 minutes ago, BobInHouston said:

Latest update of the Matrix has Texas hanging on as the first No. 11. Seems like they need four more wins before SS unless everyone else keeps losing, which also is happening.

Arkansas and OU are included on more brackets that updated after the weekend games, so it is more like we are the third to last right now.  We seem to be a little ahead of the triumvirate of tOSU, WF, and Indiana, but don't sleep on Xavier.  Xteam didn't do itself any favors by slumbering through the second half and barely beating an awful Seton Hall team, but it could win out and finish with 21 wins, including 11 wins over top 100 teams.  It is just 1-9 in q1 games, but 3 of those were road games decided in OT or one possession against top 40 teams, and Freemantle missed 2 of those games. 

I remember Gerry saying weeks ago that 7-11 would probably get us there.  I remember saying at the time we needed 8-10 without a bad loss in the conference tournament, so I think I'm in agreement with you, Bob.  

Our OOC SOS militates very much against us.  The only thing that really militates for us at this point is the quality of our three good wins (Kentucky, Missouri, and A&M). 

[BobInHouston]

39 minutes ago, bierce said:

Arkansas and OU are included on more brackets that updated after the weekend games, so it is more like we are the third to last right now.  We seem to be a little ahead of the triumvirate of tOSU, WF, and Indiana, but don't sleep on Xavier.  Xteam didn't do itself any favors by slumbering through the second half and barely beating an awful Seton Hall team, but it could win out and finish with 21 wins, including 11 wins over top 100 teams.  It is just 1-9 in q1 games, but 3 of those were road games decided in OT or one possession against top 40 teams, and Freemantle missed 2 of those games. 

I remember Gerry saying weeks ago that 7-11 would probably get us there.  I remember saying at the time we needed 8-10 without a bad loss in the conference tournament, so I think I'm in agreement with you, Bob.  

Our OOC SOS militates very much against us.  The only thing that really militates for us at this point is the quality of our three good wins (Kentucky, Missouri, and A&M). 

Looking at Lunardi, just as an example, Texas is one of the last byes, and Arkansas is last four in. If the Hogs win tomorrow, they'll probably swap spots.

Having a n-c schedule that weak means you can't blow good opportunities for n-c wins. Turns out now that they're competing with Ohio State and UConn, and they lost decisively to both. Not that winning all those buy games is terrible, but those two losses really hurt.

[bierce]

Lunardi has been higher on Texas than most bracketiwanians for much of the year. 

[BobInHouston]

29 minutes ago, bierce said:

Lunardi has been higher on Texas than most bracketiwanians for much of the year. 

No question. Major part of that is being impressed with the league SOS.

[bierce]

Newell owned the paint in the final minute to carry Georgia to a 86-80 lead with 10 seconds left.  Georgia blew a 25 point lead in the first half and let Florida briefly take the lead with about a minute to go.

Cincy beat Baylor 69-67.

Pitt trails Ga Tech by 4 with 18 seconds to go.  Will be final nail for Pitt.

 

[bierce]

Wow.  Georgia fouled a three point shooter letting it fly from 30 feet!

[John Moore]

Back win for UGA

[bierce]

Florida made all 3 ft, Georgia got it in, was fouled, made a pair, and Florida missed a bunny.  Georgia by 5 and now has three great q1 wins--St. John's (neutral) and Kentucky and Florida at home.  Will be coming to Austin looking to move back into the field and probably needs to win 2 of its next 3 to clinch a bid.  Newell will be really hard for our bigs to handle.  I still say we missed more by losing out on him than Toppin, but I suppose it was always likely he was going to stay home.

[bierce]

WVU won by a bunch.  Rather than try to climb back into contention for a bid, TCU laid two eggs on the road.  Was always a long shot, anyway.  WVU looks to be in  very good position now with so many bubble teams dropping games over the last 9 days.

New Mexico played an extremely sloppy first half and had problems with transition defense after committing turnovers.  I was particularly amused by the guy who gave us a steal on a lazy pass between midcourt and the arc, chased the Aztec on the breakaway, and tried to depants him while he was going up for a dunk.   SDSU 73-UNM 65.  UNM had a chance to wrap up the conference title on this road trip to Boise State and San Diego State, but now it needs to win @ Nevada to avoid worrying about falling behind Utah State.  It swept Utah State, so it has the tiebreaker there.

 

[Jordan91]

1 hour ago, bierce said:

WVU won by a bunch.  Rather than try to climb back into contention for a bid, TCU laid two eggs on the road.  Was always a long shot, anyway.  WVU looks to be in  very good position now with so many bubble teams dropping games over the last 9 days.

New Mexico played an extremely sloppy first half and had problems with transition defense after committing turnovers.  I was particularly amused by the guy who gave us a steal on a lazy pass between midcourt and the arc, chased the Aztec on the breakaway, and tried to depants him while he was going up for a dunk.   SDSU 73-UNM 65.  UNM had a chance to wrap up the conference title on this road trip to Boise State and San Diego State, but now it needs to win @ Nevada to avoid worrying about falling behind Utah State.  It swept Utah State, so it has the tiebreaker there.

 

He tried to pull his shorts off?