bierce Posted March 15 Author Posted March 15 Colorado State is winning, but it is winning by a huge margin, so maybe that can knock out a Boise State team that had a q4 loss. Quote
Jordan91 Posted March 16 Posted March 16 On 3/15/2025 at 11:53 PM, bierce said: Colorado State is winning, but it is winning by a huge margin, so maybe that can knock out a Boise State team that had a q4 loss. Expand They cut it to 13, but if anybody watched the entire second half, they were blown out. Quote
MarkInAustin Posted March 16 Posted March 16 On 3/16/2025 at 12:17 AM, Jordan91 said: They cut it to 13, but if anybody watched the entire second half, they were blown out. Expand CSU gets an auto bid, right? 1 Quote
bierce Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 On 3/16/2025 at 12:17 AM, Jordan91 said: They cut it to 13, but if anybody watched the entire second half, they were blown out. Expand Closed on a 18-6 run. CSU running clock and chucking rocks at end of shot clock over the last 5 minutes. Quote
bierce Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 Our attention turns to Henderson, Nevada where the Big West tournament finals start at 8:30. Go Tritons! 1 Quote
Jordan91 Posted March 16 Posted March 16 On 3/16/2025 at 12:24 AM, MarkInAustin said: CSU gets an auto bid, right? Expand Yes they do. Quote
Clint Baros Posted March 16 Posted March 16 For what its worth, on the bubble watch sublink on the bracketology page: Texas has a 63% chance to make the dance, compared to its fellow bubble counterparts: UNC (62%) Indiana (44%) Boise State (34%) Additional teams in the bubble texas is ahead of in terms of % probability: Xavier (44%) San Diego State (29%) The way the bracketology is shaped and the % for each team does not add up but we will see tomorrow. Quote
bierce Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 On 3/16/2025 at 1:26 AM, Clint Baros said: For what its worth, on the bubble watch sublink on the bracketology page: Texas has a 63% chance to make the dance, compared to its fellow bubble counterparts: UNC (62%) Indiana (44%) Boise State (34%) Additional teams in the bubble texas is ahead of in terms of % probability: Xavier (44%) San Diego State (29%) The way the bracketology is shaped and the % for each team does not add up but we will see tomorrow. Expand Whose bracketomakitallupology page is this? Quote
Clint Baros Posted March 16 Posted March 16 (edited) On 3/16/2025 at 1:30 AM, bierce said: Whose bracketomakitallupology page is this? Expand Joe Lunardi I understand some teams are not as updated as others but just providing food for thought https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/43275822/bubble-watch-2025-mens-ncaa-tournament-march-madness-bracket-predictions Edited March 16 by Clint Baros Quote
bierce Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 On 3/16/2025 at 1:31 AM, Clint Baros said: Joe Lunardi I understand some teams are not as updated as others but just providing food for thought https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/43275822/bubble-watch-2025-mens-ncaa-tournament-march-madness-bracket-predictions Expand That's fine. I just wanted to know who was putting up guesstimates of % chance of getting a bid. I think that is so much hedging bets bullshit. Make your selections Sunday morning. Make predictions about who stays in or falls out with a win or a loss in the Sunday games. Don't give me made up %s about the committee selecting you or not, because you don't really know. Me? I don't know who the last team will be, and I don't think anyone can be certain about who it will be. I went with Galaxy Quest earlier today, and I will again. The operation of the digitizer is "much more art than science." And these can be the results: IF, IF, IF UC San Diego wins tonight, and Memphis and VCU win tomorrow, then I think we have a very good chance of being the last team in. I can't think of a team with 7 q1 wins that has ever been left out. But we are on very thin ice. There may be some who refuse to limit the ACC to 3 teams while the SEC gets 14 in. There may be some that think UNC has to stay in because it is UNC. There may be some that can't reward a team that not only finished 6-12 in its conference but didn't win s*** in the OOC and scheduled 7 total turkeys. So, nobody really knows, and in this year there is a lot more guesswork about the last team in the field than in most years. I hope we get in and romp and stomp our way to the title game, but I won't be surprised or really even fussed if we don't. Winning 3 of the last 4 games we were supposed to lose before the Tennessee game was nice, but losing 3 of the last 4 games we were supposed to win sucked balls. Quote
BobInHouston Posted March 16 Posted March 16 On 3/16/2025 at 1:30 AM, bierce said: Whose bracketomakitallupology page is this? Expand It's not Lunardi. It's the ESPN+ page on the college hoops page. Quote
bierce Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 (edited) On 3/16/2025 at 2:04 AM, BobInHouston said: It's not Lunardi. It's the ESPN+ page on the college hoops page. Expand I'm not anti-Lunardi. I'm just anti-quantifying the unquantifiable. And if ESPN thinks it can make me pay for bs like that, it can think again. Edited March 16 by bierce Quote
bierce Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 Uh-oh. UC Irvine on a 21-6 run against UC San Diego to take a 25-16 lead. If this hold up, then that could be a major window slamming. Quote
BobInHouston Posted March 16 Posted March 16 On 3/16/2025 at 2:05 AM, bierce said: I'm not anti-Lunardi. I'm just anti-quantifying the unquantifiable. And if ESPN thinks it can make me pay for bs like that, it can think again. Expand I paid for it for you. Quote
bierce Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 On 3/16/2025 at 2:13 AM, BobInHouston said: I paid for it for you. Expand Appreciate you, Bob. 1 Quote
BobInHouston Posted March 16 Posted March 16 Texas still ranks above most of the teams in this analysis. However, I don't think there is a groundswell of support for a 14th team from the SEC. I'm not impressed with the UCSD resume. Best win is at Utah State. A couple of bad losses -- one in the league and one out. They would have lost two of three to Irvine. Quote
BobInHouston Posted March 16 Posted March 16 UCSD pulls to within two at the half. They do not have it together, but it is clear that these teams know each other. It's how they were able to get back in it. Quote
bierce Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 On 3/16/2025 at 2:19 AM, BobInHouston said: Texas still ranks above most of the teams in this analysis. However, I don't think there is a groundswell of support for a 14th team from the SEC. I'm not impressed with the UCSD resume. Best win is at Utah State. A couple of bad losses -- one in the league and one out. They would have lost two of three to Irvine. Expand That is the problem in judging non P5 teams. They just don't get enough games against P5 teams to get a real feel for their ability. A split on the road against Utah State and San Diego State is really pretty good stuff. The loss to Seattle was totally f'ing ugly, but when you play 25 games against lousy opponents, you are bound to lay an egg once, and in that game Seatlle shot 50% bta. Lord knows we've been guilty of surrendering a 12-2 run in the second half in a conference road game against a team we should beat. And it isn't like we didn't lose by 15 to SEC cellar dweller South Carolina. And that is my complaint about the quad and tournament selection system. A team that plays a huge number of q3 games is deeply penalized for every loss even though one or two are almost invariably bound to happen, while a team that plays a huge number of q1 games is greatly rewarded for every win while every loss is explained away. I mean really, even if Texas deserves to be above UC San Diego for an at large bid, can we necessarily say the same about Indiana, UNC, Xavier, or Boise State? Here's hoping UC San Diego stops committing the silly turnovers and pulls away in the second half, and that will moot this whole debate. It's a 2 point game at the half, so that could happen. Pity Louisville couldn't do a number on Duke today to make UNC look silly. My attitude is that the best of the mid-majors should get the benefit of the doubt and should be given a shot at the big dance. The bottom third of the major-majors had plenty of chances already. 1 Quote
bierce Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 Whether UC San Diego wins this game or not, you have to appreciate how quickly they move the ball on offense. Now up 7 after starting the second half on a 12-3 run. Go Tritons! Eric Olen will undoubtedly be coaching on a bigger stage next year. 1 Quote
BobInHouston Posted March 16 Posted March 16 On 3/16/2025 at 2:41 AM, bierce said: That is the problem in judging non P5 teams. They just don't get enough games against P5 teams to get a real feel for their ability. A split on the road against Utah State and San Diego State is really pretty good stuff. The loss to Seattle was totally f'ing ugly, but when you play 25 games against lousy opponents, you are bound to lay an egg once, and in that game Seatlle shot 50% bta. Lord knows we've been guilty of surrendering a 12-2 run in the second half in a conference road game against a team we should beat. And it isn't like we didn't lose by 15 to SEC cellar dweller South Carolina. I mean really, even if Texas deserves to be above UC San Diego for an at large bid, can we necessarily say the same about Indiana, UNC, Xavier, or Boise State? Here's hoping UC San Diego stops committing the silly turnovers and pulls away in the second half, and that will moot this whole debate. It's a 2 point game at the half, so that could happen. Pity Louisville couldn't do a number on Duke today to make UNC look silly. My attitude is that the best of the mid-majors should get the benefit of the doubt and should be given a shot at the big dance. The bottom third of the major-majors had plenty of chances already. Expand That's obviously fair about the schedule. They have to be perfect to avoid blemishes. I would note that Irvine is the only other team in the BW that is ranked better than USC-E. With UCSD starting to get it together, I can see the good side. Unfortunately, bubble teams are not going to be playing them. The real question about the schedule is how many teams could win seven Q1 games if given 17 chances -- especially if they're playing a healthy sampling of Auburn, Florida, Alabama, and Tennessee. Quote
bierce Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 (edited) On 3/16/2025 at 2:57 AM, BobInHouston said: That's obviously fair about the schedule. They have to be perfect to avoid blemishes. I would note that Irvine is the only other team in the BW that is ranked better than USC-E. With UCSD starting to get it together, I can see the good side. Unfortunately, bubble teams are not going to be playing them. The real question about the schedule is how many teams could win seven Q1 games if given 17 chances -- especially if they're playing a healthy sampling of Auburn, Florida, Alabama, and Tennessee. Expand I agree with you about that. Five of our losses are against 1 and 2 seeds. But we totally sucked ass against OU, Georgia, and USCe down the stretch. We can only blame ourselves if we miss the tournament. Not that I want us to. Edited March 16 by bierce Quote
Jordan91 Posted March 16 Posted March 16 On 3/16/2025 at 3:00 AM, bierce said: I agree with you about that. Five our our losses are against 1 and 2 seeds. But we totally sucked ass against OU, Georgia, and USCe down the stretch. We can only blame ourselves if we miss the tournament. Not that I want us to. Expand I am good either way. Be nice to see them in. Coming out in a coma against South Carolina and Georgia is not acceptable. I don’t know that I would feel all too bad if they don’t make it. Leave it to Texas to test the NCAA limits. Seems like they will set a precedent either way. Quote
BobInHouston Posted March 16 Posted March 16 On 3/16/2025 at 3:00 AM, bierce said: I agree with you about that. Five of our losses are against 1 and 2 seeds. But we totally sucked ass against OU, Georgia, and USCe down the stretch. We can only blame ourselves if we miss the tournament. Expand Wondering if Texas would be in OU's position (comfortably in) had it won the games it lost and lost to Vandy on Wednesday. I think the answer is yes. The wins this week helped but they haven't wiped out all of those losses, and two of 'em were really bad. Quote
bierce Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 Funniest thing about this game is UC San Diego wearing white while UC Irvine is wearing dark blue. Meanwhile, the UC San Diego coach is wearing dark blue while the UC Irvine coach is wearing white. Quote
bierce Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 (edited) On 3/16/2025 at 3:14 AM, BobInHouston said: Wondering if Texas would be in OU's position (comfortably in) had it won the games it lost and lost to Vandy on Wednesday. I think the answer is yes. The wins this week helped but they haven't wiped out all of those losses, and two of 'em were really bad. Expand Beat OU, and we would have clinched a bid and knocked it out of any possibility for a spot. And the other two losses were far worse. Edited March 16 by bierce Quote
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