Bubble watch

[bierce]

That was the AAC tourney in reference to Memphis, and I don't think any other team would warrant an at large bid from that conference.

[BobInHouston]

Bilas said this morning that he thinks both Oklahoma and Texas will make the field.

[Jordan91]

13 minutes ago, BobInHouston said:

Bilas said this morning that he thinks both Oklahoma and Texas will make the field.

Not a shot him, but I don’t think he does  near the research, you and Bierce do.

[bierce]

14 minutes ago, BobInHouston said:

Bilas said this morning that he thinks both Oklahoma and Texas will make the field.

I think that would require both OU and Texas to get to at least 19 wins, for there to be no upset winners of conference tournaments crashing the dance, and for some other teams on the bubble to falter.  Each one of those has a good to decent chance of happening.   All of them happening together?  Eh, not a particularly strong bet. 

[bierce]

5 minutes ago, Jordan91 said:

Not a shot him, but I don’t think he does  near the research, you and Bierce do.

Because college basketball coverage is his professional life, and he has staff researching for him, but for me this is so much mental masturbation.

 

[Jordan91]

2 hours ago, bierce said:

Because college basketball coverage is his professional life, and he has staff researching for him, but for me this is so much mental masturbation.

 

I would hope he does. Lunardi may be telling him this. It’s the announcers calling the games that I don’t pay attention to. In every conference tournament a case is made for a team on the bubble. 

[BobInHouston]

2 hours ago, Jordan91 said:

Not a shot him, but I don’t think he does  near the research, you and Bierce do.

He probably has help but I think he's hands-on in what he does. I was a little surprised at what he said.

[bierce]

Georgia and Arky won today, creating a 4 way tie for seeds 9-12.  Pretty sure we'll get Vandy, because it went 0-3 against Arky, MSU, Georgia.

[BobInHouston]

6 minutes ago, Jordan91 said:

I would hope he does. Lunardi may be telling him this. It’s the announcers calling the games that I don’t pay attention to. In every conference tournament a case is made for a team on the bubble. 

I don't think the paths of Bilas and Lunardi cross much (nor would I expect them to).

Edited March 8 by BobInHouston

[BobInHouston]

3 minutes ago, bierce said:

Georgia and Arky won today, creating a 4 way tie for seeds 9-12.  Pretty sure we'll get Vandy, because it went 0-3 against Arky, MSU, Georgia.

Correct. It's Hogs, MSU, UGa, and Vandy.

[Clint Baros]

This Bama vs Auburn game is absolute Cinema

[bierce]

9 minutes ago, Clint Baros said:

This Bama vs Auburn game is absolute Cinema

If only the losing coach would go all Denethor on us.

[CoachBobbyFinstock]

6 hours ago, BobInHouston said:

Bilas said this morning that he thinks both Oklahoma and Texas will make the field.

I don’t know about that. I think tonight is an elimination game. 

[BobInHouston]

25 minutes ago, CoachBobbyFinstock said:

I don’t know about that. I think tonight is an elimination game. 

Not evaluating what he said, just reporting.

[bierce]

Really bad day so far for teams on the outside looking in.

Arky, Georgia, Indiana, and Xavier all won.  WVU is winning bigly. 

The only good thing that happened was Drake pulling the game out in the second half against Belmont, so it made it to the MVC finals.  If it wins tomorrow, there is one less chance of a dance crasher. 

[bierce]

UNC lost 82-69, so the day got a little better.

[bierce]

And that is it for the Terry tenure.  We have to win at least two games in the conference tournament to even have a chance at the NCAA tournament, and it isn't happening.

Worst season since Shaka's second year here.

[Jordan91]

13 minutes ago, bierce said:

And that is it for the Terry tenure.  We have to win at least two games in the conference tournament to even have a chance at the NCAA tournament, and it isn't happening.

Worst season since Shaka's second year here.

That was one god awful year. 

Edited March 9 by Jordan91

[bierce]

Nebraska nadired in dramatic fashion by losing to Iowa 83-68 for its fifth straight loss and fourth straight loss in Lincoln.  Horrible season end for Hoiberg.  NU was a near cinch to get in and found the only way to play itself out.

B1G will have five teams tie for 12th-16th at 7-13.

[BobInHouston]

15 minutes ago, bierce said:

Nebraska nadired in dramatic fashion by losing to Iowa 83-68 for its fifth straight loss and fourth straight loss in Lincoln.  Horrible season end for Hoiberg.  NU was a near cinch to get in and found the only way to play itself out.

B1G will have five teams tie for 12th-16th at 7-13.

Nebraska will miss the BTT. A dreadful finish.

[bierce]

Texas is on 1 of 43 brackets that updated this morning.  TheNightVenom is the weirdo. 

But here is the thing.  How far out are we?  Boise State had 4 votes.  UNC had 6.  Nebraska had 2 but it lost today and missed the B1G tournament, so it can't climb up.

I'd say we are pretty far out.  The matrix is in almost complete accord for keeping those teams out and everyone who is in the matrix in.  Xavier and tOSU are each on 34-35 of the 43.  Everyone else is nearly unanimously in or out.

So Texas has to jump teams two teams that get a few more votes today than Texas does, has to jump at least one team is running at 80% in, and has to jump another team each time a dance crasher shows up.  A win over A&M could do that, but it might not be enough. 

I think 14 SEC teams in the field would be ridiculous.  The SEC has a few great teams (Auburn, Florida, Alabama, maybe Tennessee), a few really good teams (Missouri, A&M, Kentucky, maybe Mississippi), and a bunch of mediocre teams (Miss State, Arky, Georgia, Vandy, OU, Texas).  All the mediocrity should not be rewarded at the expense of more deserving mid-majors that might play a bad game in their conference tournaments. 

 

[bierce]

Drake won with ease today.  That makes for one less dance crasher for bubble teams to worry about. 

[bierce]

Pepperdine (4-14 in the WCC and playing its third game in three days) was trying to upset Santa Clara in the WCC quarterfinals, and nearly pissed the game away.  Up 5 with the ball and a little over a minute to go, it lost the dribble without pressure on the perimeter, giving Santa Clara a breakaway to cut it to three.  Then Pepperdine ran the entire clock down without even remotely trying to work offense.  Shot clock violation with 17 seconds left on the game clock.  SC with a chance to tie.

SC got an open three.  Missed the rim completely.  Pepperdine got the rebound and made a pair of ft to clinch it with 2.8 seconds left. 

So much for one (Santa Clara) of the two WCC teams I thought might be a risk to manage to crash the dance.  San Fran is up next against Washington State.

[bierce]

San Fran won last night, so there is at least one team with the ability to challenge St. Mary's and Gonzaga in the WCC semis.  I really don't give Pepperdine much of a chance today.  It will be on its fourth game in 4 days, and it lost to St. Mary's by 30 and 24 already this year.  San Fran beat St. Mary's once and stayed within 11 @ Gonzaga.  

Nothing else of bubble interest on the slate today.

[bierce]

Pepperdine wasn't in the game in the second half against Gonzaga.  San Fran went to the half up 2, was behind by only 1 before Ike completed an and one with 6:45 to go, and Gonzaga slowly pulled away from there.

So the only risks for dance crashers now will come from the AAC (only Memphis is worth an at-large bid), the Big West (UC San Diego), the A-10 (VCU), and the more unlikely scenario that a multi-bid conference has a team come from nowhere to get multiple wins over tournament quality teams to claim a bid. 

No bubble teams in action today, unless you think Pitt and Cincy can still get in without an autobid.  Both are in first round conference tournament action.