bierce Posted February 26 Author Posted February 26 Nothing bigger than Texas @ Arkansas today as far as the bubble goes. Winner stays in, loser likely drops out but could climb back in with a win in its next game. Vandy @ A&M Penn St @ Indiana OU hosts Kentucky WF hosts Virginia Boise State hosts Utah State tOSU @ USC, after which tOSU has a home game against Nebraska and a road game against Indiana, so two chances to get a win and knock down or out the competition there SMU @ Cal. I only put SMU here because 10 of the 106 brackets updated since SMU's home loss to Clemson still include SMU for some absolutely unfathomable reason. Quote
bierce Posted February 26 Author Posted February 26 9 minutes ago, Jordan91 said: He tried to pull his shorts off? That's what it looked like. Was called a flagrant. Not a play on the ball. At least not the one that is the normal subject of a basketball play. 1 Quote
John Moore Posted February 26 Posted February 26 We could have four SEC teams tied at 5-10 in conference at the end of the day Quote
John Moore Posted February 26 Posted February 26 Bubble Watch 2025: Conference locks for men's March Madness Spoiler Quote
Brian Carter Posted February 27 Posted February 27 On 2/24/2025 at 10:21 PM, bierce said: Did Tech really only play 6 players? Yes. Quote
bierce Posted February 27 Author Posted February 27 Vandy, tOSU, SMU, Indiana, Boise State, and Arkansas (alas) won Texas (alas), WF, and OU lost. Texas appearing on no more than 1/2 of the brackets updating this morning, and generally as one of the last 2 in the field when it does appear. Texas-Georgia winner might be in the field. Loser will drop out again. BYU won, but I didn't include it as a bubble game, since BYU had climbed to the 8/9 line after torching Kansas and winning @ Arizona. No games of interests tonight or tomorrow unless you are of the opinion someone like UC San Diego, VCU, or Drake can look up at large bids by winning out regular season, creating what I call fiddler crab conferences. Almost entire bubble playing Saturday, including double bubble game Texas hosting Georgia. 1 Quote
bierce Posted February 27 Author Posted February 27 Correction: As more brackets have updated this morning, Texas is appearing on 2 of the first 10 I checked. Not really surprising at this point despite the narrowness of the loss. Other bubble teams won and moved up. We didn't and moved down. Quote
John Moore Posted February 27 Posted February 27 Bubble Watch 2025: Conference locks for men's March Madness Spoiler Quote
bierce Posted February 28 Author Posted February 28 We were on just 13 of 38 brackets that updated yesterday plus CBS (updated this morning). We still appear in the field according to the matrix, but only because other brackets haven't updated. As soon as they do, we'll fall behind Indiana Georgia, and tOSU. Quote
Jordan91 Posted February 28 Posted February 28 23 minutes ago, bierce said: We were on just 13 of 38 brackets that updated yesterday plus CBS (updated this morning). We still appear in the field according to the matrix, but only because other brackets haven't updated. As soon as they do, we'll fall behind Indiana Georgia, and tOSU. Georgia is next so if they lose that is pretty much it. Quote
bierce Posted February 28 Author Posted February 28 1 hour ago, Jordan91 said: Georgia is next so if they lose that is pretty much it. Or make things nearly impossible for a team playing at the level Texas is playing. It would have to win 4 in a row, which would mean winning @ Miss State, beating OU again, then winning two games in the SEC tournament in Nashville, probably against Georgia/Vandy (maybe Arky) then against Tennessee/Missouri. Pomeroy would give that about a 3 percent chance of happening. 1 1 Quote
bierce Posted March 1 Author Posted March 1 As I predicted, we are not in the field according to the matrix this morning. 21 brackets have not updated since the Arky game. We are on 18 of them. 85 brackets have updated since the Arky game. We are on only 28 of them. Last four at larges are now OU, Georgia, tOSU, Indiana. Boise State is hot on our heels, getting on 23 of the 85 updated brackets. Beating Seton Hall by only 4 hurt Xavier. UNC just ended the first half on a 14-2 run to go the lockers up 46-31 over Miami in the only game happening now with a team in last 8 in or first 8 out. UNC has played well of late, but none of the games were needle movers. Quote
Jordan91 Posted March 1 Posted March 1 2 minutes ago, bierce said: As I predicted, we are not in the field according to the matrix this morning. 21 brackets have not updated since the Arky game. We are on 18 of them. 85 brackets have updated since the Arky game. We are on only 28 of them. Last four at larges are now OU, Georgia, tOSU, Indiana. Boise State is hot on our heels, getting on 23 of the 85 updated brackets. Beating Seton Hall by only 4 hurt Xavier. UNC just ended the first half on a 14-2 run to go the lockers up 46-31 over Miami in the only game happening now with a team in last 8 in or first 8 out. UNC has played well of late, but none of the games were needle movers. Do you think Texas knocks Georgia and OU out if they win both? Quote
bierce Posted March 1 Author Posted March 1 10 minutes ago, Jordan91 said: Do you think Texas knocks Georgia and OU out if they win both? Not without more losses by either team, because any bubble team currently projected to be an 11 seed that wins 2 of 3 games is likely to stay in the field. Then the first round of the SEC tournament will play large with the committee. Georgia has three winnable games (@Texas, @ So Car, home vs. Vandy). It could go anywhere from 0-3 to 3-0 in that stretch. OU has three lose-able games (@ Mississippi, home vs. Missouri, @ Texas), so I think it is much more unlikely OU gets a couple of wins by regular season's end. 1 Quote
bierce Posted March 1 Author Posted March 1 So Car 16 Arky 3 with 10:31 to go in the first half. Arky shooting 1/11. Quote
texcoyote15 Posted March 1 Posted March 1 SC is blowing Arkie out by 22. Just started the 2nd half Quote
bierce Posted March 1 Author Posted March 1 So Car 50 Arky 20 with 12:10 left. Wow. UNC won 92-73. Like I said, not a needle mover, but other teams can move down with losses while UNC stays put, so someone might drop below it. Quote
bierce Posted March 1 Author Posted March 1 Nebraska is digging a hole for the third straight game against non-tournament teams. It came back against Northwestern, but it couldn't catch Penn State. Now it is down at home 30-17 to Minnesota. Quote
bierce Posted March 1 Author Posted March 1 (edited) Minnesota started second half on a 9-0 run to build lead back to 44-26. New play for every coach's playbook. Guard up top and outside the arc overthrows a lob to a big man in the paint. Big man can just get a hand on it to deflect down the baseline to teammate open in the corner. Teammate drive baseline, and as the defense collapses, passes back to the first guy still standing up top well outside the arc and drains the three. I put it up there with the inbounds pass from one baseline off the opposite backboard for the teammate to get the carom and drop in the short open jumper. Edited March 1 by bierce 1 Quote
bierce Posted March 1 Author Posted March 1 (edited) I like Hoiberg, but I'm rooting against Nebraska from here on out for the half-time show of making babies crawl on the court to their parent or bottle of milk or whatever other carrot was held out for them. Several were bawling. Edited March 1 by bierce Quote
bierce Posted March 1 Author Posted March 1 Q3 loss for Nebraska after a great comeback to take the lead with 9.4 seconds left. It had forced a ten second violation and scored on the ensuing possession to take a one point lead. Minnesota quickly ran down and hit a three with 4.1 seconds left. Nebraska tried to counter but missed from about 35 feet at the buzzer. Quote
bierce Posted March 1 Author Posted March 1 OU lost 87-84 after 3/4 length of floor heave went off the backboard. I thought it was jobbed a bit at the end. Forsythe was fouled driving baseline with OU down one, no whistle, but he was called for chucking the ball over the backboard. Ole Miss with a breakaway on the inbound pass, but Murrell fumbled it, pinned it against his side while trying to dribble, took a couple of steps that way, dropped the ball, picked it up and started dribbling. Apparently that was OK. But the OU guy trying to foul was called for a flagrant for grabbing Murrell's shirt as he went by. Murrell made both, and OU was left needing to steal the inbound pass and hit a court length three. It managed half of that. Not crying for OU. Bubble getting softer and softer today. Quote
qaertyisthatdude Posted March 1 Posted March 1 Even in victory, a Mississippi player threw the Horns Down. Texas is that brand in college athletics. Quote
bierce Posted March 1 Author Posted March 1 Here's an interesting one-- Colorado State leads currently projected 9 seed Utah State 48-22 at the half. I don't think Colorado State can win an at-large bid with 5 noncon losses, including home against UC Riverside, but if it wins this game, then it will be 7-1 in Q1-2 games and be in a position to possibly tie for the regular season MWC title if New Mexico loses one more and Colorado State can win out, which would also give it a q1 win @ Boise State. Quote
Jordan91 Posted March 1 Posted March 1 All that NIL, Calapari, and Arkansas can’t beat South Carolina either! If CDC is talking to other coaches about what could work here, I pray one of those people is not Calapari. Quote
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