Bubble watch

[bierce]

Xavier spanked Butler 91-78.  If it beats Providence Saturday and wins its first game in the Big East tournament, it will get a bid, but here is the kicker--it is now guaranteed to finish either 4th or 5th in the conference.  It would get a bye and have to play the other team that finishes 4th or 5th in the second round.  So that means a game against UConn, Marquette, or Creighton.  It split the season series with each of those teams, but that won't be an easy game.  The real question is whether Xavier will get in if it loses that second round conference tournament game and finishes the year with just one q1 win. 

OU leads Missouri 55-39 with 17:53 left.

Ridiculous longshots to get back in Cincy and Pitt both lost. 

Florida just beat Bama in Tuscaloosa to pretty much wrap up second seed in the conference tournament and more importantly get a huge leg up in the race for the fourth 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. 

 

[bierce]

In another game with no bubble impact, Michigan lost at home to Maryland.  That is Michigan's third straight home loss to a tournament caliber team after announcing the extension and raise for Dusty May.  Indiana succeeded with the major psyche job there. 

[bierce]

There are times when I think a coach would be better off losing than using his use it or lose it timeout.  I just saw one.  Louisville was on a complete roll against Cal, on a 7-0 run to build a 15 point lead, got a stop with less than 30 seconds left and started walking up the floor, the players obviously knowing they had the last possession.

So Kelsey called a timeout.  I mean, you have to, right?  Uh no, you really don't.

Louisville ran a play and was whistled for an offensive foul on a screen outside the arc.  Cal missed a couple shots at point blank range, so no real harm done, but when your team is on a roll, you have a big lead, and the opponents are on their heels, then why stop the action to let the other team regroup? 

And that is where coaches like Self beat all hell out of a lot of coaches.  He has absolutely no qualms about calling a timeout at any point in the first half if he thinks he needs to get his guys on the right page.  He knows that holding that thing in his pocket until the last possession of the first half is really f'ing dumb.

[bierce]

Porter Moser has gotten serious.  He's wearing a suit and tie instead of a stretchy shirt showing off his man-boobs. 

OU wins ninety something to eighty something after all the unnecessary fouling and free throws are over.

[BobInHouston]

Not liking the scores I am seeing tonight.

[bierce]

9 minutes ago, BobInHouston said:

Not liking the scores I am seeing tonight.

I agree.   The teams that were already out of it are getting even farther out of it, but the real bubble teams won. 

Nothing of interest on the schedule tomorrow, but things get interesting on Friday.  MVC tournament starts, VCU can maybe wrap up an at large bid by beating Dayton, and Colorado State goes to Boise State. 

[Jordan91]

40 minutes ago, bierce said:

Porter Moser has gotten serious.  He's wearing a suit and tie instead of a stretchy shirt showing off his man-boobs. 

OU wins ninety something to eighty something after all the unnecessary fouling and free throws are over.

The man boobs will keep me from attending the Texas game. 

[BobInHouston]

Ole Miss looks like it's going to push Tennessee here. Brakefield is having a good game, but he just walked on a spinarama to make it 63-61

[bierce]

Brackets updated yesterday are nearly uniform in including Indiana, Arky, and tOSU, with Boise State leading for the one of the two remaining spots.  The other is currently a toss up among OU, Nebraska, Xavier, and Texas with UNC leading the rest of the teams with a smattering of votes. 

OU has a pitiful conference record, but the win last night should put it back in the field according to the matrix, but we would likely pass it with a win Saturday.  The question will be whether we can catch some others and pull away from the scrum. 

[John Moore]

Not bubble but the fight for the 4th one seed is awesome to watch

[bierce]

3 minutes ago, John Moore said:

Not bubble but the fight for the 4th one seed is awesome to watch

It is, but Florida is clearly in the lead now after going 3-1 against Auburn, Tennessee, and Alabama, while playing only Tennessee at home. 

[Neil Leininger]

Texas clinches the #13 seed in the SEC tournament after last night's results.

So far we have,

#1 Auburn, #2 Florida, #13 Texas, #14 OU, #15 LSU, and #16 South Carolina.

Georgia is still looking like our 1st round opponent, but MSU, Vanderbilt, or Arkansas depending on tie breakers could also there.

MSU plays Arkansas and Vanderbilt plays Georgia on Saturday.

[John Moore]

5 minutes ago, Neil Leininger said:

Texas clinches the #13 seed in the SEC tournament after last night's results.

I know that wasn’t meant to be funny but I laughed

[bierce]

24 minutes ago, Neil Leininger said:

Texas clinches the #13 seed in the SEC tournament after last night's results.

So far we have,

#1 Auburn, #2 Florida, #13 Texas, #14 OU, #15 LSU, and #16 South Carolina.

Georgia is still looking like our 1st round opponent, but MSU, Vanderbilt, or Arkansas depending on tie breakers could also there.

MSU plays Arkansas and Vanderbilt plays Georgia on Saturday.

And if we beat Georgia, then our second round game would be against Missouri or A&M.  I'm not sure how tiebreakers work, but Mississippi lost to both, so I don't see it getting 5th seed even if it wins in Gainesville this weekend. 

[Jordan91]

50 minutes ago, bierce said:

Brackets updated yesterday are nearly uniform in including Indiana, Arky, and tOSU, with Boise State leading for the one of the two remaining spots.  The other is currently a toss up among OU, Nebraska, Xavier, and Texas with UNC leading the rest of the teams with a smattering of votes. 

OU has a pitiful conference record, but the win last night should put it back in the field according to the matrix, but we would likely pass it with a win Saturday.  The question will be whether we can catch some others and pull away from the scrum. 

It’s ridiculous they are above Texas. Does a loss to Texas knock them out? Barring a couple of wins in the conference tournament? 

[bierce]

3 minutes ago, Jordan91 said:

It’s ridiculous they are above Texas. Does a loss to Texas knock them out? Barring a couple of wins in the conference tournament? 

One team beat Gonzaga, Louisville, and Michigan OOC.  The other team didn't.  Whole resume and all that. 

[Clint Baros]

I don’t know about y'all but watching these mid major conference tournaments is an amazing appetizer for the conference tournaments next week. Knowing that 99% of these teams must win their conference to make the tourney makes it that much more fun.

Edited Friday at 12:21 AM by Clint Baros

[bierce]

54 brackets were updated yesterday.  Near unanimity for all but one spot.  Well, OU was left on 44 brackets, but 81.5% is clearly better than the rest fighting for the last spot, so we'll grant it the second to last spot for now.

Xavier 19 (hosts Providence Saturday) (Xavier with 82% of winning according to Pomeroy)

Boise State 15 (hosts Colorado State tonight) (66%)

Texas 13 (hosts OU Saturday) (66%)

Nebraska 12 (hosts Iowa Sunday) (73%)

UNC 11 (visits Duke Saturday) (16%)

Obviously UNC has the chance for the greatest gain, but it is a really small chance. 

Of course, if any of those teams move up, then someone is likely to move down.  Indiana is currently missing from 4 updated brackets.  Arky, tOSU, and SDSU are each missing from one.  tOSU goes to Indiana Saturday.

 

 

 

[BobInHouston]

I am kinda liking Texas's chances for at least Dayton if they beat OU and No. 12 (which I have assumed would be Arkansas).

Of course, I want to see a bunch of L4I and maybe a couple of L4B lose.

I was gonna check on No. 12 but the mred site is being updated. Rats.

[BobInHouston]

So, too many moving pieces, but it seems as though Ole Miss could get to 5 with a win at Florida and then a win by either South Carolina (at Tennessee) or LSU (vs. A&M).

In other words, it's a long shot.

On the "possible" front, there's a chance of Vandy as the No. 12 against Texas if it loses at Georgia and Arkansas beats Mississippi State. Most likely second-round opponent would be A&M.

Edited Friday at 05:10 PM by BobInHouston

[bierce]

Dayton just beat VCU 79-76.  VCU is 2-1 in q1 games, but both are as weak as q1 wins get--road wins over NET 70 Dayton and NET 71 St. Joe's.  Both Dayton and St. Joe's will move into the 60s with wins today.   VCU is also now just 3-4 in q2 games.  Most importantly, VCU has zero wins against the field.  It lost at UNM, and it has a hideous q4 loss to Seton Hall on a neutral floor.  It did beat Colorado State on a neutral floor, but CSU is on the outside right now. 

So, the question is whether VCU would still get a bid if it loses in the A 10 tournament.  Had it won today, I would say it will get in regardless.  Now I think it needs the autobid.  There's just nothing of real value on the resume.  A reverse split with Dayton, so each team got a q1 win?  That's your big selling point? 

 

[bierce]

Boise State's 5 game winning streak which included home wins over UNM and Utah State and got BSU on the right side of the bubble just came to a screeching halt with a 83-73 home loss to Colorado State.  Colorado State gets its first q1 win of the season and clinches the 2nd seed in the MWC tournament.  Boise State falls to 4th or 5th depending on what SDSU does against Nevada tomorrow. 

And most importantly, Boise State will lose most of the support it had to be included in the tournament.  2-5 q1, 4-2 q2, and has 2 q3 losses.  One of the q2 losses would be q3 if the NET people credited the loss to Washington State as a home loss instead of neutral.  Game was played in Boise, just in a different arena.

Anyway, the upshot is that Boise State just went from last in to somewhere in the first or next four out with this loss, depending on how the rest of the bubble fares this weekend. 

 

[BobInHouston]

Bierce, you have a better handle on this than I do. How many bid-stealers are out there? Or, phrased better, how many conference leaders below the P5 look like locks no matter what?

 

[John Moore]

3/8 update

Men's Bracketology: 2025 NCAA Tournament

Spoiler

 

 

 

Edited Saturday at 03:20 PM by John Moore

[bierce]

25 minutes ago, BobInHouston said:

Bierce, you have a better handle on this than I do. How many bid-stealers are out there? Or, phrased better, how many conference leaders below the P5 look like locks no matter what?

 

UC San Diego, maybe Drake because Indiana State was skipped last year.  I just can't bring myself to put VCU in there, but maybe the win over Colorado State looks better now.

Hard to believe Memphis would be left out if it loses the ACC tourney, and no one else works for me.

And the WCC has two certs in Gonzaga and St. Mary's, but Santa Clara or San Francisco might surprise in the conference tourney.  Gonzaga played well in beating both USF and Santa Clara on the road by 20 this week, but it is criminally overrated at 8 in NET and Pomeroy.