The problem with the all in on Arch mindset

[DanielOnorato]

3 minutes ago, tenneseehorn08 said:

We're all lifetime longhorns. No one is saying we don't want to win after Arch. But until the NCAA takes away eligibility rules and tom Brady can go back to Michigan to try to win a natty as a graduate student, there will always be cycles to some degree at programs. Most important player in sports is QB, so if you can re-align resources to these two years to maximize, you do it. Take for example the transfers Texas brought in this year. It is not a coincidence that Emmet Mosley, Watson, Endries, and Spence all have two years of eligibility or time before the NFL is a possibility. If you need to move some of your 2027 resources to 2026 to ensure you get the right guys in the portal next year (or to keep Colin Simmons), you do it. No question. 

And then you do the same thing with KJ Lacey and Dia Bell's prime years (or Trey Owens, if he mans up and wins the job). 

If Texas gets 50 year old Brady in the portal I'm betting the farm on Texas 😂

[CHorn427]

18 minutes ago, Born Burnt Orange said:

Georgia didn’t suffer in recruiting the years they didn’t win the championship. Neither did Ohio state, Oregon, Michigan, Alabama or even freaking Saggies. Between the NIL and the SEC we will be good. 

A new coach has about 2-3 years to start having solid seasons (10+ wins) and about 5 years to start winning titles (conference or national).

Georgia won the SEC in Kirby’s second year and made the national title game. That gave Kirby some leeway for a few years before crossing the finish line.

Ohio State has been on a trajectory of one national title every ten years since 2002. Their fans and program want more frequent championships, but one every 10 years is a better rate than 90%+ of programs. On top of that, they’re perennially in the mix for conference titles and have finished national runner up several other times. That is enough to sustain recruiting.

Oregon has been consistently in the mix for conference titles since Chip Kelly and has made the national title game- that plus daddy warbucks is enough to sustain recruiting.

Michigan’s recruiting wasn’t ever stellar- they just recruited good enough, developed and retained so that they had good enough talent and exceptional experience, plus they didn’t have to play a very tough schedule (except for tOSU). Plus Connor Stallions. 

Alabama won a national title in Saban’s 3rd year and 3 in his first 6 years. A fairly incomparable situation, wouldn’t you say?

The Aggies are actually exactly the modern program/recruiting nightmare that can happen when the recruiting blank checks run out before you capitalize on quality recruiting classes with conference or national titles. 
 

IMO, we need to at least make the title game with Arch. Preferably this year. 

[FAFO]

3 hours ago, Born Burnt Orange said:

Don’t get me wrong. I am excited for our boys and Arch to take the field.  I also think we will have another successful year that could be so good that we take it all.  Maybe we fall short again.  
   My problem is I have seen the idea from some of the mods and many members of OTF that we have to go all in because Arch is our QB.  I am not a fan of that mindset because I expect Texas to be a major player even after Arch leaves for the NFL.  We have QBs lined up waiting for their chance who could be even better than Arch.  This is not our last opportunity to win a title.  Sark has built a F’ing monster and we will be a force for many years to come.  You don’t believe that then go eat a corn dog with mayo.  Believe, don’t doubt. 

i haven’t seen a single article that states we’re doomed after Arch… i have seen some that says we need to capitalize & go all in with arch.  as in take advantage of having a name to the pedigree of a “manning” 

 

their not saying any other QB coming can’t be as good as him. but their names aren’t gonna hold as much weight as the one “manning” does.     that’s what their saying… 

[Tim Longoria]

4 hours ago, Born Burnt Orange said:

Don’t get me wrong. I am excited for our boys and Arch to take the field.  I also think we will have another successful year that could be so good that we take it all.  Maybe we fall short again.  
   My problem is I have seen the idea from some of the mods and many members of OTF that we have to go all in because Arch is our QB.  I am not a fan of that mindset because I expect Texas to be a major player even after Arch leaves for the NFL.  We have QBs lined up waiting for their chance who could be even better than Arch.  This is not our last opportunity to win a title.  Sark has built a F’ing monster and we will be a force for many years to come.  You don’t believe that then go eat a corn dog with mayo.  Believe, don’t doubt. 

Probably beating a dead horse here, but I don't know where the phrase "all in" = these next two years is all we got. It was said in reference to Arch having 2 years left, and trying to maximize those 2 years. If Sark/Texas was planning on phoning it in after he's gone, I dont think they would be recruiting the players/prospects that they have been. 

[AusMOJO]

The biggest indicator of if we're going to win or not, won't have anything to do with Arch (ironically). It will have to do with how well this OL run blocks and if we can run the ball at will on teams. 

[Paul L]

2 hours ago, JMarquette said:

Nobody is saying it’s our last chance, but when you have a guy is marked as a generational talent, you do everything you can to ensure he succeeds. Nobody is saying we can’t win outside the “2 year window” but this is about maximizing Arch’s + the talent around him’s time.

I want to maximize every f’ing window.  This window in my eyes should be not treated any differently than a window 5-10 years down the street.  

[Paul L]

2 hours ago, JMarquette said:

There was like a 12 year time period where there was no window lol - I would know, that’s when I was there. 

I am well aware.  I was punished with 11 years in Altus, Oklahoma during that time.   It was only august of 2024 that I moved back to Texas.  I put up with a lot of sh!t. 😂 

[A-10HORN]

Dia Bell may have something to say about all this.  

 

[Paul Jespersen]

I think we all need the season to start so we can stop mincing and splicing words and hit some people. Esp Aggies and Sooners. And Buckeyes. And Bulldogs....

🤘

[AusMOJO]

2 hours ago, Paul Jespersen said:

I think we all need the season to start so we can stop mincing and splicing words and hit some people. Esp Aggies and Sooners. And Buckeyes. And Bulldogs....

🤘

I don't why but when I was listing off those teams at the end, I felt the urge to suddenly follow the yellow brick road. 

[LonghornFan4Ever]

On 8/17/2025 at 4:34 PM, Red Five said:

 

We may not be as good after Arch leaves. Who knows. We're not guaranteed anything, as we are all painfully aware. Gotta take advantage while we can, strike while the iron's hot, etc.

Are you happy we did during the VY era? We'd still be looking for our first NC in 55 years.

Completely spot on.

[bevocbs]

I think the OP's point is that the way most people talk about ALL IN is like the professional model of sacrificing the future to win today. It is a little different in the college game, but people want to throw a pile of money at every prospect who may possibly have the talent to help us next year, regardless of what it to the culture of the team.

 

But Sark didn't build this program to be like Tech. He didn't build it by throwing piles of cash at mercenary players with no regard for how they fit in the locker room or how their deal will impact the morale of the team. And taking that approach this year because we "can't waste Manning's and Simmon's last year" threatens to destroy the entire model/culture he has built.

 

I am all for Sark doing everything he can to fill holes through the portal, but I also agree with the OP that it should not be at the expense of the PROGRAM and TEAM in 2027 and beyond.

[CHorn427]

On 8/17/2025 at 2:27 PM, Paul L said:

Don’t get me wrong. I am excited for our boys and Arch to take the field.  I also think we will have another successful year that could be so good that we take it all.  Maybe we fall short again.  
   My problem is I have seen the idea from some of the mods and many members of OTF that we have to go all in because Arch is our QB.  I am not a fan of that mindset because I expect Texas to be a major player even after Arch leaves for the NFL.  We have QBs lined up waiting for their chance who could be even better than Arch.  This is not our last opportunity to win a title.  Sark has built a F’ing monster and we will be a force for many years to come.  You don’t believe that then go eat a corn dog with mayo.  Believe, don’t doubt. 

I don’t personally think that any of the QBs we have lined up have a higher ceiling than Arch Manning. They just don’t have his physical tools. Arch also has the mental makeup and has improved in that regard over the course of the season.

I think the odds of Lacey or Bell being better are low. Not to mention, the odds of Lacey or Bell winning a championship in their first year as a starter are even lower. So if we don’t win a championship in 2026, I hope the ever-patient Longhorn Nation is willing to wait til 2028 at the earliest

[tsip92]

All-in every year!  With the new world order (NIL and the portal) you have the potential to hit the jackpot in any given year.  Roster cycles are not what they once were.  Be aggressive and play to win. 

[Tres Comas]

On 8/17/2025 at 4:03 PM, lemonandaturd said:

It took Kirby Smart five years to win it all at Georgia.  Sark is in his fifth year here with coaching continuity, arguably the best defense in college football, and a Heisman trophy candidate at QB.  I'm all in.  

6th

[chennups]

I keep asking: Were we not "all in" before? 

 

It must not have been cheap to recruit arch, simmons, ewers and to retain worthy, bijan/roschon and get ad mitchell in the portal.  What is different now just because Arch is QB1?  We could have won the natty wtih quinn if our running game was more consistent against better teams and if our defense could have stopped Penix and the big plays from OSU.  I think most people would pick him over Will Howard.

 

The standard is the standard.  we should be all in every year. if not, what are we doing?

[Oldest Horn]

Are we really getting all worked up over a slogan?