Five key matchups likely to determine Texas' fate against No. 7 Ole Miss

If No. 19 Texas is going to avoid losing a third consecutive game when No. 7 Ole Miss rolls into DKR on Saturday (6:30 p.m., ABC), these five matchups must go the Longhorns' way.

1. Texas’ Third-Down Offense vs. Ole Miss’ Third-Down Defense

With the Longhorns going three-and-out on 46.2 percent of their offensive possessions against Tennessee (six of 12 drives), Oklahoma (seven of 15 drives) and Florida (five of 12 drives), it shouldn't come as a shock that Texas has the worst third-down offense in SEC play. The Longhorns moved the chains at an 8-for-36 clip in their first three conference games, including a 2-for-10 showing in their loss to the Gators last Saturday.

The Rebels, however, have struggled to get off the field on third down. Pete Golding’s defense allowed its first four SEC opponents to go 30-for-61 (49.2 percent conversion rate) on third down, with Florida posting a 6-for-10 effort in its 52-28 rout of Ole Miss at the Swamp on Sept. 26.

Unlike when it failed to take advantage of the Gators’ porous pass defense last week, Texas must take advantage of a perceived weakness and be at its best on third down to keep the Rebels’ potent offense off the field and to regain some much-needed confidence on offense.

2. Texas’ Defensive Line vs. Ole Miss’ Offensive Line

We’ll see how the availability report looks closer to kickoff, but Wednesday’s report included three starting offensive linemen for the Rebels: left tackle Terez Davis (questionable), right guard Patrick Kutas (probable) and center Brycen Sanders (questionable).

Kutas, who was named SEC Co-Offensive Lineman of the Week for his performance in Ole Miss’ 31-3 win over Missouri last Saturday, slid from guard to center in place of Sanders. Even though the Rebels had to move pieces around and didn’t have a 100-percent healthy Kewan Lacy in the backfield, they still rushed for a season-high 257 yards (6.8 yards per attempt) against the Tigers, led by Lacy’s season-high 122 yards on 16 carries.

If Colin Simmons is out, it’ll be up to the interior of the Longhorn defensive line (Ian Geffrard, Alex January, Hero Kanu and Maraad Watson) to set the tone, while an EDGE group that’ll be without Richard Wesley adjusts to life without Simmons.

According to Pro Football Focus, 448 of the 990 rushing yards Ole Miss has gained this season have come on A- and B-gap runs. Another 293 yards have come on D-gap runs, making setting the edge and keeping contain the top priorities for Lance Jackson, Zina Umelozulu and the Texas edge defenders.

Additionally, the Rebels are No. 2 nationally in pass blocking efficiency according to PFF, allowing just 22 total pressures on 235 pass attempts. When opponents pressure Chambliss, it’s hard to get home and get him on the ground, with Chambliss’ 12.2 percent pressure-to-sack rate ranking third among SEC quarterbacks who’ve been pressured on at least 15 dropbacks this season.

While the Ole Miss front might be banged up, it’ll take the best effort of the season from Kenny Baker and LaAllan Clark’s groups to keep the Longhorns in the game. Texas will have to earn its opportunities to rush the passer on Saturday.

3. Texas Wide Receivers vs. Ole Miss Defensive Backs

Whether Arch Manning or KJ Lacey is behind center for the Longhorns, the game plan is likely to call for a lot of screen passes and quick throws to the perimeter. Against a secondary missing nickelback Edwin Joseph (the Florida State transfer suffered an ankle injury in Ole Miss’ 52-17 road win over Vanderbilt on Oct. 10), the Texas wideouts can control the game if they can maximize their opportunities in space.

Based on PFF’s missed tackle data, 47.2 percent (34 of 72) of the Rebels’ missed tackles have come when defending the pass, the second-highest percentage of any defense in the SEC (Kentucky has missed 53.5 percent of its tackles in the passing game).

Even though Jermaine Bishop Jr. only has 10 receptions on the season, no Longhorn has forced more missed tackles on receptions (four) than the true freshman, according to PFF. Forcing Ole Miss players to make plays in space is one of the few things Steve Sarkisian should feel his offense does well enough to make it a significant part of how he attacks Golding's defense.

4. Texas Linebackers vs. Trinidad Chambliss

No SEC quarterback is better in the intermediate passing game than Chambliss. According to Pro Football Focus, which has Chambliss graded at an SEC-leading 91.2 on throws 10-19 yards downfield, he's completing 60.9 percent of his intermediate throws for 647 yards, with six touchdowns against three interceptions.

Intermediate throws are Chambliss’ second-favorite passing depth, according to PFF, with 30.5 percent of his attempts attacking the area 10-19 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Furthermore, 19.5 percent of his attempts have been intermediate throws in the middle of the field, where he’s 25-for-41 on the season, with 464 yards and five touchdowns (two interceptions).

It’s a big week for the Longhorn defense against one of the nation’s top quarterbacks. On top of handling their responsibilities of containing Chambliss’ playmaking ability when things break down, Rasheem Biles, Justin Cryer and any other Texas linebacker on the field need to be especially ready to answer the challenge when Chambliss targets them in coverage.

5. Ryan Niblett vs. Oscar Bird

Bird, who came to Oxford in 2025 by way of Australia, is already Ole Miss’ all-time leader in career punting average (46.5 yards per punt). Bird is averaging 48.6 yards per punt this season; six of his 18 punts have been downed inside the opponent’s 20-yard line (only one touchback) and seven of his punts have traveled 50 or more yards, including a season-best 60-yarder against Florida.

The Longhorns can’t afford to give up field position. Niblett proved last week that he can still make things happen when he makes the first would-be tackler miss, but catching the football cleanly and helping the offense avoid situations where it has to start a possession near its goal line are of the utmost importance against the Rebels.