3 minutes ago, Bevohorns said:

My pushback with this is if you are round of 64 or NIT next year you have not shown any type of improvement that you cant build a program. Recruits will not want to come here if at the minimum we dont make the tournament and with one game. To build a program you have to show improvement to some extent each year to sell toe players to come here. I dont think miller came here knowing he wont have a good enough budget to build a roster next year thats at least good enough to make the tournament and thats what u are making it seem with your comments. 

Todd Golden at UF:
year 1: not in NCAA Tournament
year 2: Round of 64

Florida fan base thought he was a bust after year one.

Danny Hurley at UConn:
year 1: not in NCAA Tournament
year 2: not in NCAA Tournament

UConn fan base wanted him gone after two years.

There are others very similar.

It's the fan bases you are referencing, not the recruits IMO. Fan bases want super duper, hyper speed instant gratification these days. 

Recruits are all about NIL at the high-end level or portal. It's simply a transactional business. They want to go where they can get paid, and hopefully fulfill the dream of playing pro. Being brutally honest, a lot of these guys are cool with making the tournament and if they make a run with a team is icing on the cake. But so many of these guys don't live and die with the NCAA Tournament anymore. 

So the key questions is striking that balance if you aren't a blue blood or have the NIL spend of a blue blood (Louisville and Arkansas two in that type of category). You want to build a program the right way, which still takes time. But the fan bases these days have absolutely zero patience for that. And from an NIL perspective, where do you sit in line. You may have to build it in a slow advancement way (or try to) - but fan bases will move away from a coach before he builds the program in that scenario. 

11 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

Why is anyone surprised? 

Texas was never beating Florida. It was going to be a double digit game. They are a damn good team with a number of returnees of an NC team. Best big men in the country (BTW, none highly recruited in the states) with experience that will all play pro ball on some level, key guard off the bench on the NC team and Golden is a GREAT offensive coach. 

Texas will likely lose at Texas A&M (10-15% chance to win) and will definitely lose at Arkansas. 

Texas literally has four straight games against NCAA Tournament teams, with three on the road. Texas is favored in NONE of them. If anyone think Texas should win... Vegas is pretty good at what they do! 

This has been setting up for the OU game at home being the must win. 

And it's always been ... will the Mississippi State game come back to haunt.

But in the mean time while everyone awaits the OU game and SEC Tournament ... Miller sucks, Swain isn't ready to go pro, Matas sucks, Pope sucks, Mark sucks, everyone sucks.

I'll keep saying the same thing as I have since prior to the season ...

Danny Hurley at UConn (under .500), Todd Golden at Florida (under .500), Rick Pitino at St. Johns,Nate Oats at Alabama,  Chris Beard at Ole Miss, Brad Underwood at Illinois, Mick Cronin at UCLA all missed the NCAA Tournament year one in the portal era. 

The future years will come down to one of two scenarios ...

1. Texas fully funds the [program from the NIL side to be competitive in the portal.

2. Miller and staff catch lightening in a bottle a couple of times with a HS prospect or couple of not high-end NIL portal guys. 

 

100% agree Gerry - a tournament appearance is house money this year (anything beyond the first four is exceptional). The expectations are absolutely ridiculous for people who have not cared about the team before Beard got here. 0% chance we win in Fayetteville. Have to hope you get an OU win and favorable draw in SEC tournament to take one more.

2 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

Todd Golden at UF:
year 1: not in NCAA Tournament
year 2: Round of 64

Florida fan base thought he was a bust after year one.

Danny Hurley at UConn:
year 1: not in NCAA Tournament
year 2: not in NCAA Tournament

UConn fan base wanted him gone after two years.

There are others very similar.

It's the fan bases you are referencing, not the recruits IMO. Fan bases want super duper, hyper speed instant gratification these days. 

Recruits are all about NIL at the high-end level or portal. It's simply a transactional business. They want to go where they can get paid, and hopefully fulfill the dream of playing pro. Being brutally honest, a lot of these guys are cool with making the tournament and if they make a run with a team is icing on the cake. But so many of these guys don't live and die with the NCAA Tournament anymore. 

So the key questions is striking that balance if you aren't a blue blood or have the NIL spend of a blue blood (Louisville and Arkansas two in that type of category). You want to build a program the right way, which still takes time. But the fan bases these days have absolutely zero patience for that. And from an NIL perspective, where do you sit in line. You may have to build it in a slow advancement way (or try to) - but fan bases will move away from a coach before he builds the program in that scenario. 

Fans have to give a coach time to build and young players time to develop. Today’s under the radar player becomes tomorrow’s best ROI with good coaching and opportunities to develop on and off the court. Buy low and hold strategies for a NIL bull market will produce good yields. It will require quality talent evaluation, discipline, and patience. 

14 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

I'm not saying Texas will move on from Miller. Texas literally can't hire a better coach IMO. Miller was brought in to legitimately build a program ... not just chase as many seniors as possible (as some others have done in year one's). 

The fan base, however, will be totally out by year three if it's a NIT and Round of 64 first two years. 

I said in another thread the other day ... the NIL era Texas wouldn't have signed KD (would have been AJ Dybansta NIL level), Aldridge (nearly same as KD), Tristan Thompson (nearly same as KD), Avery Bradley, Corey Joseph, etc... Texas isn't in that NIL playground. Texas only got Austin Goosby because he's a UT family and took half to turn down BYU and Duke. That wouldn't have happened with any other the guys mentioned above. 

Unless things change on an NIL front for Texas basketball, they have to play in a different sandbox in terms of building a roster the correct way. 

He's going to have to likely catch lightening in a bottle a few times in the tier 2-3 NIL world of college hoops. The problem with the job at Texas is there is an expectation of signing the top high school prospect, or a couple in the state on annual basis. Those are expensive, and will take away from portal NIL funds on some level. A Texas A&M doesn't have that expectation on the HS level, so they can approach things differently. Imagine if Texas had decided to not go on Austin Goosby and save more for portal NIL ... reaction would have been pretty negative. Texas is expected to be right there for Marcus Spears Jr. ... the pressure will build to sign him, and it won't be cheap. That could well hurt Texas total roster build for that year, as things currently stand. 

It's why I'm so frustrated with these threads ... the expectations are truly out of whack in year one, and maybe over time. Why do people think Sean Miller didn't bring Swain and Ryan Conwell with him? Only had the juice for one of them. L'ville NIL'ed Conwell for 2.4 mill plus a signing bonus. Texas doesn't have near that level of NIL to work with to invest up to 6-7 mill in top three players, and still be able to retain or truly build a program. 

What fan base is there for Texas men’s basketball? It’s a small group. Why would Texas cave to pressure from very few and sign high school talent? Initially that small group would probably be upset. So what,  it’s not like there will be a massive protest that has any impact. If that small group of fans waits until the season starts then they will see Coach Miller made the right decision. I agree that at the end of year two, with the scenario you mentioned, Texas fans will be very upset. So what? Some are already upset. As long as it doesn’t affect the money coming from men’s basketball CDC will give him the third year. Extremely small fan base with no power at all.