OTF Premium SEC Hoops Game Thread: Texas vs. No. 7 Florida

2 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

Miller is a damn good coach. An elite coach IMO. 4 E8's and 8 Sweet 16's speak for itself. 

All depends on if Texas comes through in NIL. Agents love to use Texas to maximize dollars.

If not, will be tough to maximize. 

Just being real. Otherwise, you have to catch lightening in a bottle on some lesser NIL guys. Just the way it works. 

And I agree. It pisses me off that we have a top ten coach that is expected to get great players at flea market prices. 

The boys fought hard and kept it close for a long time. 

3 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

Miller is a damn good coach. An elite coach IMO. 4 E8's and 8 Sweet 16's speak for itself. 

All depends on if Texas comes through in NIL. Agents love to use Texas to maximize dollars.

If not, will be tough to maximize. 

Just being real. Otherwise, you have to catch lightening in a bottle on some lesser NIL guys. Just the way it works. 

As I’ve said before, this is why year 1 is important. Not from the perspective of “hey, we need to make a Sweet 16,” but “hey, can we see what this could be.” 
 

I can’t imagine Todd Golden got a massive NIL commitment when he got to Florida. Florida also spends a sh*t ton on football and a great amount on baseball. It’s really not hard seeing Texas get to that point. Miller just has to show it, which I think he has.

8 minutes ago, JMarquette said:

A&M looks like their legs are shot and they’re not that good, as we speak, Arky is getting run by A&M. I think you’re crazy to think that those aren’t winnable games, especially considering Swain has been a top 5 player in the SEC. 
 

To the Vegas point, Vegas even disagreed with you and had Florida as 6-point favorites tonight. Not everyone thought this was going to be a double digit game.  

A&M will be ready and waiting. Texas can certainly win that game, but I am not counting on it. 

1 minute ago, Jordan91 said:

A&M will be ready and waiting. Texas can certainly win that game, but I am not counting on it. 

I’m sure they will, but a 10-15% chance is absurd lol.

10 minutes ago, Bevohorns said:

I dont think anyone thought they would win but reading your post why has your tone changed so much ? You were so high on miller which ill be real I wasnt but now I am. You seem very doubtful now that this program will become something and you didnt sound like that last offseason when we hired him ? maybe I am reading into it too much but u dont seem as positive. I also dont get the doubt on NIL you yourself have said that agents are calling texas and we have a top 10 recruiting class coming in. I think miller could have this team be a top 16 team each year and the signs are there and hes started bringing talent so your tone seems shifted. I could also care less if we make tournament this first year as long as he makes it next year which I think he will. Terry left this roster is very bad shape

Second game he has done this. Pointless to say anything. Just going to watch the team. 

16 minutes ago, JMarquette said:

As I’ve said before, this is why year 1 is important. Not from the perspective of “hey, we need to make a Sweet 16,” but “hey, can we see what this could be.” 
 

I can’t imagine Todd Golden got a massive NIL commitment when he got to Florida. Florida also spends a sh*t ton on football and a great amount on baseball. It’s really not hard seeing Texas get to that point. Miller just has to show it, which I think he has.

Get what your saying and it's correct, but Golden is going to be a Hall of Fame level coach if he stays in college long enough. He's special IMO. 

He also went 16-17 year one, and lost in Round of 64 year two. He legitimately built a program (part of it was learning on job quickly and lack of NIL compared to blue bloods and major programs) ... Hough was a 3-star, Reuben C. was a lowly recruited guy to Wash State and portaled, Alex Condon was an undervalued 3-star from Aussi, Klavchar was a 3-star from Slovakia, etc... not a McDonald's AA on the team last year. Guys developed over time. 

There just isn't patience like that for program building anyone, sadly. It's super inflated instant gratification, no matter if a team/program is a top 5 NIL team or top 35-40 NIL team. 

If Sean Miller takes three years to build a sustainable program, Texas fans will have given up and want him fired. Just reality. 

9 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

Get what your saying and it's correct, but Golden is going to be a Hall of Fame level coach if he stays in college long enough. He's special IMO. 

He also went 16-17 year one, and lost in Round of 64 year two. He legitimately built a program (part of it was learning on job quickly and lack of NIL compared to blue bloods and major programs) ... Hough was a 3-star, Reuben C. was a lowly recruited guy to Wash State and portaled, Alex Condon was an undervalued 3-star from Aussi, Klavchar was a 3-star from Slovakia, etc... not a McDonald's AA on the team last year. Guys developed over time. 

There just isn't patience like that for program building anyone, sadly. It's super inflated instant gratification, no matter if a team/program is a top 5 NIL team or top 35-40 NIL team. 

If Sean Miller takes three years to build a sustainable program, Texas fans will have given up and want him fired. Just reality. 

In theory, I don’t disagree. But I also watched this same program keep Shaka Smart for 5 years when he did nothing to deserve to stay that long. RT got 2 years when everyone knew nothing was being “built.” While I think you’re right that Texas, as a fanbase, is way too impatient, I think basketball is a sport where a trigger won’t get pulled prematurely. Now, the problem will be NIL support (if donors think program is stalling), but I also think CDC is good at circling the wagons and making sure coaches get what they need (why he’s one of the best). 

 

Miller has already shown he can find gems (Swain), also shown he can sign and develop high-star recruits (Gordon, Ayton, etc.) People have also seen what this team can be, hell, we saw it for 35 minutes tonight. While I agree there is an instant gratification, I think most people (donors included) see that there is *something* there. The only thing that will threaten Miller, IMO, is if A&M takes another step next year (which I don’t think happens). 

 

Edited 20 hours ago by JMarquette

Just now, JMarquette said:

In theory, I don’t disagree. But I also watched this same program keep Shaka Smart for 5 years when he did nothing to deserve to stay that long. RT got 2 years when everyone knew nothing was being “built.” While I think you’re right that Texas, as a fanbase, is way too impatient, I think basketball is a sport where a trigger won’t get pulled prematurely. Now, the problem will be NIL support, but I also think CDC is good at circling the wagons and making sure coaches get what they need (why he’s one of the best). 

 

Miller has already shown he can find gems (Swain), also shown he can sign and develop high-star recruits (Gordon, Ayton, etc.) People have also seen what this team can be, hell, we saw it for 35 minutes tonight. While I agree there is an instant gratification, I think most people (donors included) see that there is *something* there. The only thing that will threaten Miller, IMO, is if A&M takes another step next year (which I don’t think happens). 

 

I'm not saying Texas will move on from Miller. Texas literally can't hire a better coach IMO. Miller was brought in to legitimately build a program ... not just chase as many seniors as possible (as some others have done in year one's). 

The fan base, however, will be totally out by year three if it's a NIT and Round of 64 first two years. 

I said in another thread the other day ... the NIL era Texas wouldn't have signed KD (would have been AJ Dybansta NIL level), Aldridge (nearly same as KD), Tristan Thompson (nearly same as KD), Avery Bradley, Corey Joseph, etc... Texas isn't in that NIL playground. Texas only got Austin Goosby because he's a UT family and took half to turn down BYU and Duke. That wouldn't have happened with any other the guys mentioned above. 

Unless things change on an NIL front for Texas basketball, they have to play in a different sandbox in terms of building a roster the correct way. 

He's going to have to likely catch lightening in a bottle a few times in the tier 2-3 NIL world of college hoops. The problem with the job at Texas is there is an expectation of signing the top high school prospect, or a couple in the state on annual basis. Those are expensive, and will take away from portal NIL funds on some level. A Texas A&M doesn't have that expectation on the HS level, so they can approach things differently. Imagine if Texas had decided to not go on Austin Goosby and save more for portal NIL ... reaction would have been pretty negative. Texas is expected to be right there for Marcus Spears Jr. ... the pressure will build to sign him, and it won't be cheap. That could well hurt Texas total roster build for that year, as things currently stand. 

It's why I'm so frustrated with these threads ... the expectations are truly out of whack in year one, and maybe over time. Why do people think Sean Miller didn't bring Swain and Ryan Conwell with him? Only had the juice for one of them. L'ville NIL'ed Conwell for 2.4 mill plus a signing bonus. Texas doesn't have near that level of NIL to work with to invest up to 6-7 mill in top three players, and still be able to retain or truly build a program. 

1 hour ago, Jordan91 said:

Whatever man. I had the tournament as the bar to start the season. This is the second game you have done this. Not much to respond to.  Pope is a massive liability on defense. Coach Miller is talking about him specifically when he talks about defense. I guess pointing that out is wrong. I have said Mark is hot and cold and he is. Not sure how that means he sucks. Are we not allowed to be critical of players?

Not saying you ... but many people in these threads say Texas can't shoot, or doesn't have shooters from three ... and that tells me people aren't realistic or don't truly watch/follow college hoops ...

Texas is 35.4% from three ... 

Arizona 35.4%

BYU 35.3%

Michigan State 35.2%

Tennessee 34.9%

DUKE 34.8%

Kentucky 34.8%

St. John's 34.2%

Gonzaga 33.9%

UNC 33.7%

Miami 33.7%

Houston 33.6%

Georgia 32.9%

Three-point shooting isn't actually a weakness. I think for some reason there is an expectation that the best teams fire 38-40% from three. There isn't a top team that is at 40% this season. A couple in the 39%'s, but most are under 38% and closer to mid-36%'s to 33.5%

11 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

I'm not saying Texas will move on from Miller. Texas literally can't hire a better coach IMO. Miller was brought in to legitimately build a program ... not just chase as many seniors as possible (as some others have done in year one's). 

The fan base, however, will be totally out by year three if it's a NIT and Round of 64 first two years. 

I said in another thread the other day ... the NIL era Texas wouldn't have signed KD (would have been AJ Dybansta NIL level), Aldridge (nearly same as KD), Tristan Thompson (nearly same as KD), Avery Bradley, Corey Joseph, etc... Texas isn't in that NIL playground. Texas only got Austin Goosby because he's a UT family and took half to turn down BYU and Duke. That wouldn't have happened with any other the guys mentioned above. 

Unless things change on an NIL front for Texas basketball, they have to play in a different sandbox in terms of building a roster the correct way. 

He's going to have to likely catch lightening in a bottle a few times in the tier 2-3 NIL world of college hoops. The problem with the job at Texas is there is an expectation of signing the top high school prospect, or a couple in the state on annual basis. Those are expensive, and will take away from portal NIL funds on some level. A Texas A&M doesn't have that expectation on the HS level, so they can approach things differently. Imagine if Texas had decided to not go on Austin Goosby and save more for portal NIL ... reaction would have been pretty negative. Texas is expected to be right there for Marcus Spears Jr. ... the pressure will build to sign him, and it won't be cheap. That could well hurt Texas total roster build for that year, as things currently stand. 

It's why I'm so frustrated with these threads ... the expectations are truly out of whack in year one, and maybe over time. Why do people think Sean Miller didn't bring Swain and Ryan Conwell with him? Only had the juice for one of them. L'ville NIL'ed Conwell for 2.4 mill plus a signing bonus. Texas doesn't have near that level of NIL to work with to invest up to 6-7 mill in top three players, and still be able to retain or truly build a program. 

No, I’m with you. I have always said tournament team this year would be nice, but it doesn’t kill me if they aren’t - I just want a reason to be invested on that first Thursday and Friday. I also don’t think it’s any secret that basketball is third-wheel at Texas (by a large margin), but I would push back on the big recruiting wins, not necessarily because we win them today, but where the program was in the 2000’s, we were a top 10 program during that run. Boosters would have given money to Barnes to make things go forward because Barnes showed that he could do it. There were tangible results. As you know, JT Toppin wanted to be a Longhorn, but money in Lubbock is just as green (and double) the money in Austin. Part of me wonders if we had Beard, whether the boosters would have coughed up what we needed (I think so). 

 

At the end of the day, you are correct that we operate mid-table in the SEC on NIL funds (not near enough to win anything meaningful, unless you get creative). 

38 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

Not saying you ... but many people in these threads say Texas can't shoot, or doesn't have shooters from three ... and that tells me people aren't realistic or don't truly watch/follow college hoops ...

Texas is 35.4% from three ... 

Arizona 35.4%

BYU 35.3%

Michigan State 35.2%

Tennessee 34.9%

DUKE 34.8%

Kentucky 34.8%

St. John's 34.2%

Gonzaga 33.9%

UNC 33.7%

Miami 33.7%

Houston 33.6%

Georgia 32.9%

Three-point shooting isn't actually a weakness. I think for some reason there is an expectation that the best teams fire 38-40% from three. There isn't a top team that is at 40% this season. A couple in the 39%'s, but most are under 38% and closer to mid-36%'s to 33.5%

I saw a stat the other day about how efficient Texas is at scoring despite the fact they don’t shoot that well from three point land. They are in a group of four, three of those could win the national championship. Coach Miller is a master at getting players in the right place to score. Swain is not the best perimeter shooter. Most of the time he looks hesitant to even shoot it. Despite that, they still can’t stop him. Every time I hear Coach Miller talk I like him more and more. Texas has their coach. They didn’t have to spend millions of dollars to get him. Texas has the coach. And I think that is where the few of us that love watching men’s basketball get frustrated. Give the man a chance to build a team. Stop making him go all over the world to find players that will take less money and help Texas win. There are only so many brother or sons of former Longhorn football or basketball players talented enough to be on the team. Man I am just asking for them to spend more on ONE GUY! I heard the starting price for a point guard in this year’s portal is three million. I don’t care if a kid gets that amount. I care that some school gives it to him. These kids want NBA rookie first round money when they are second round draft picks. Every body that can’t play in the NBA is trying to come back and get paid. Texas should not have Kentucky, North Carolina or Duke NIL. If you give this man just enough, I truly believe he can get this program rolling. I just hate that they don’t do that. 

9 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

Some do, and some don't all I've said is it's not a guarantee. 

Literally all season. 

So take that somewhere else

This is why I've been saying NCAA Tournament isn't a guarantee in year one 

First year high-major coaches making the NCAA Tournament in the portal era...

2017-18:
2 of 6 (high-major schools)

2018-19:
1 of 6 (high-major schools)

2019-20 (covid year no tournament)

2020-21:
0-1 (high-major schools)

2021-22:
6 of 14 (high-major schools) 

2022-23:
6 of 14 (high-major schools)

2023-24:
2 of 9 (high-major schools)

2024-25:
6 of 14 (high-major schools)
That was a blue blood or near it carousel (Kentucky, Louisville, Arkansas with Cal, etc…)

23 of 64 total. When you take away the blue blood/near blue blood (with blue blood NIL ability) changes on this list … those numbers go down even more, and considerably.

This year as of today looks like … 5 of 11, with 4 in the balance

Better than I thought but some of these guys are just not capable of playing good defense. I think it's more actual inability of skill vs. lack of effort / motivation 

9 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

The fan base, however, will be totally out by year three if it's a NIT and Round of 64 first two years. 

My pushback with this is if you are round of 64 or NIT next year you have not shown any type of improvement that you cant build a program. Recruits will not want to come here if at the minimum we dont make the tournament and with one game. To build a program you have to show improvement to some extent each year to sell toe players to come here. I dont think miller came here knowing he wont have a good enough budget to build a roster next year thats at least good enough to make the tournament and thats what u are making it seem with your comments. 

Edited 10 hours ago by Bevohorns

3 minutes ago, Bevohorns said:

My pushback with this is if you are round of 64 or NIT next year you have not shown any type of improvement that you cant build a program. Recruits will not want to come here if at the minimum we dont make the tournament and with one game. To build a program you have to show improvement to some extent each year to sell toe players to come here. I dont think miller came here knowing he wont have a good enough budget to build a roster next year thats at least good enough to make the tournament and thats what u are making it seem with your comments. 

Todd Golden at UF:
year 1: not in NCAA Tournament
year 2: Round of 64

Florida fan base thought he was a bust after year one.

Danny Hurley at UConn:
year 1: not in NCAA Tournament
year 2: not in NCAA Tournament

UConn fan base wanted him gone after two years.

There are others very similar.

It's the fan bases you are referencing, not the recruits IMO. Fan bases want super duper, hyper speed instant gratification these days. 

Recruits are all about NIL at the high-end level or portal. It's simply a transactional business. They want to go where they can get paid, and hopefully fulfill the dream of playing pro. Being brutally honest, a lot of these guys are cool with making the tournament and if they make a run with a team is icing on the cake. But so many of these guys don't live and die with the NCAA Tournament anymore. 

So the key questions is striking that balance if you aren't a blue blood or have the NIL spend of a blue blood (Louisville and Arkansas two in that type of category). You want to build a program the right way, which still takes time. But the fan bases these days have absolutely zero patience for that. And from an NIL perspective, where do you sit in line. You may have to build it in a slow advancement way (or try to) - but fan bases will move away from a coach before he builds the program in that scenario. 

11 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

Why is anyone surprised? 

Texas was never beating Florida. It was going to be a double digit game. They are a damn good team with a number of returnees of an NC team. Best big men in the country (BTW, none highly recruited in the states) with experience that will all play pro ball on some level, key guard off the bench on the NC team and Golden is a GREAT offensive coach. 

Texas will likely lose at Texas A&M (10-15% chance to win) and will definitely lose at Arkansas. 

Texas literally has four straight games against NCAA Tournament teams, with three on the road. Texas is favored in NONE of them. If anyone think Texas should win... Vegas is pretty good at what they do! 

This has been setting up for the OU game at home being the must win. 

And it's always been ... will the Mississippi State game come back to haunt.

But in the mean time while everyone awaits the OU game and SEC Tournament ... Miller sucks, Swain isn't ready to go pro, Matas sucks, Pope sucks, Mark sucks, everyone sucks.

I'll keep saying the same thing as I have since prior to the season ...

Danny Hurley at UConn (under .500), Todd Golden at Florida (under .500), Rick Pitino at St. Johns,Nate Oats at Alabama,  Chris Beard at Ole Miss, Brad Underwood at Illinois, Mick Cronin at UCLA all missed the NCAA Tournament year one in the portal era. 

The future years will come down to one of two scenarios ...

1. Texas fully funds the [program from the NIL side to be competitive in the portal.

2. Miller and staff catch lightening in a bottle a couple of times with a HS prospect or couple of not high-end NIL portal guys. 

 

100% agree Gerry - a tournament appearance is house money this year (anything beyond the first four is exceptional). The expectations are absolutely ridiculous for people who have not cared about the team before Beard got here. 0% chance we win in Fayetteville. Have to hope you get an OU win and favorable draw in SEC tournament to take one more.

2 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

Todd Golden at UF:
year 1: not in NCAA Tournament
year 2: Round of 64

Florida fan base thought he was a bust after year one.

Danny Hurley at UConn:
year 1: not in NCAA Tournament
year 2: not in NCAA Tournament

UConn fan base wanted him gone after two years.

There are others very similar.

It's the fan bases you are referencing, not the recruits IMO. Fan bases want super duper, hyper speed instant gratification these days. 

Recruits are all about NIL at the high-end level or portal. It's simply a transactional business. They want to go where they can get paid, and hopefully fulfill the dream of playing pro. Being brutally honest, a lot of these guys are cool with making the tournament and if they make a run with a team is icing on the cake. But so many of these guys don't live and die with the NCAA Tournament anymore. 

So the key questions is striking that balance if you aren't a blue blood or have the NIL spend of a blue blood (Louisville and Arkansas two in that type of category). You want to build a program the right way, which still takes time. But the fan bases these days have absolutely zero patience for that. And from an NIL perspective, where do you sit in line. You may have to build it in a slow advancement way (or try to) - but fan bases will move away from a coach before he builds the program in that scenario. 

Fans have to give a coach time to build and young players time to develop. Today’s under the radar player becomes tomorrow’s best ROI with good coaching and opportunities to develop on and off the court. Buy low and hold strategies for a NIL bull market will produce good yields. It will require quality talent evaluation, discipline, and patience. 

14 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

I'm not saying Texas will move on from Miller. Texas literally can't hire a better coach IMO. Miller was brought in to legitimately build a program ... not just chase as many seniors as possible (as some others have done in year one's). 

The fan base, however, will be totally out by year three if it's a NIT and Round of 64 first two years. 

I said in another thread the other day ... the NIL era Texas wouldn't have signed KD (would have been AJ Dybansta NIL level), Aldridge (nearly same as KD), Tristan Thompson (nearly same as KD), Avery Bradley, Corey Joseph, etc... Texas isn't in that NIL playground. Texas only got Austin Goosby because he's a UT family and took half to turn down BYU and Duke. That wouldn't have happened with any other the guys mentioned above. 

Unless things change on an NIL front for Texas basketball, they have to play in a different sandbox in terms of building a roster the correct way. 

He's going to have to likely catch lightening in a bottle a few times in the tier 2-3 NIL world of college hoops. The problem with the job at Texas is there is an expectation of signing the top high school prospect, or a couple in the state on annual basis. Those are expensive, and will take away from portal NIL funds on some level. A Texas A&M doesn't have that expectation on the HS level, so they can approach things differently. Imagine if Texas had decided to not go on Austin Goosby and save more for portal NIL ... reaction would have been pretty negative. Texas is expected to be right there for Marcus Spears Jr. ... the pressure will build to sign him, and it won't be cheap. That could well hurt Texas total roster build for that year, as things currently stand. 

It's why I'm so frustrated with these threads ... the expectations are truly out of whack in year one, and maybe over time. Why do people think Sean Miller didn't bring Swain and Ryan Conwell with him? Only had the juice for one of them. L'ville NIL'ed Conwell for 2.4 mill plus a signing bonus. Texas doesn't have near that level of NIL to work with to invest up to 6-7 mill in top three players, and still be able to retain or truly build a program. 

What fan base is there for Texas men’s basketball? It’s a small group. Why would Texas cave to pressure from very few and sign high school talent? Initially that small group would probably be upset. So what,  it’s not like there will be a massive protest that has any impact. If that small group of fans waits until the season starts then they will see Coach Miller made the right decision. I agree that at the end of year two, with the scenario you mentioned, Texas fans will be very upset. So what? Some are already upset. As long as it doesn’t affect the money coming from men’s basketball CDC will give him the third year. Extremely small fan base with no power at all.