Whether Arch Manning is out of concussion protocol in time to start at quarterback for No. 20 Texas against No. 9 Vanderbilt at Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday (11 a.m., ABC) or Matthew Caldwell makes his Forty Acres starting debut, don’t expect Steve Sarkisian’s offense to change much, if at all.
“We haven’t changed anything that we’ve done,” Sarkisian said on a Zoom call with reporters after Thursday’s practice. “Our system has been our system.”
It’s true that Sarkisian’s attack has looked largely the same, no matter which of the five quarterbacks he’s called upon to start in his tenure (Manning, Hudson Card, Casey Thompson, Quinn Ewers and Maalik Murphy) have run the show. Nevertheless, none of those quarterbacks operated the offense the same.
Manning, who practiced on Thursday but remains in concussion protocol, Sarkisian said, is making progress toward getting back on the field. If he can’t go, however, Sarkisian remains steadfast in his belief that Caldwell’s coaches and teammates “have the utmost confidence and respect” in the Troy transfer to get the job done.
Regarding how the offense will function with Caldwell at the controls, it’s to Sarkisian’s benefit to play coy and avoid revealing his hand to Clark Lea and the Commodores. Everybody outside the Moncrief Complex has a limited viewing sample of what Caldwell can do, Sarkisian said, “but he gives us a ton of confidence in the way that he practices every day, the way that he works.”
Between Caldwell’s 2023 season at FCS Gardner-Webb and what he did in five starts with the Trojans in 2024, there are two areas in which he could help Texas (6-2, 3-1 SEC) move the football through the air.
Five of Caldwell’s seven touchdown passes in 2023 came on pass attempts behind the line of scrimmage. Caldwell earned a 74.3 season-long grade from Pro Football Focus on those throws, going 43-for-47 for 250 yards, which is better than Manning’s 2025 grade on pass attempts behind the line of scrimmage of 70.2 (52-for-54 for 371 yards and no touchdowns).
Caldwell had more success on intermediate throws (pass attempts 10-19 yards down the field) at Troy last season, recording a PFF grade of 85.7 (28-for-46 for 433 yards and seven touchdowns against three interceptions). Caldwell’s overtime touchdown pass to Emmett Mosley V in last week’s win over Mississippi State was an intermediate-range throw, a part of the field in which he’s 3-for-4 for 44 yards (a PFF grade of 86.8) and where Manning hasn’t been at his best this season (27-for-54 for 431 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions).
Caldwell’s ability to execute screens and quick throws behind the line of scrimmage, along with the intermediate throws that Sarkisian’s play-calls can scheme open, can stabilize an offense that otherwise couldn’t lean on Manning extending the play with his legs, be a factor in the running game or hit chunk-yardage plays on deep balls (on 60 career pass attempts thrown 20 or more yards down the field, Caldwell has completed just 19, throwing two touchdowns against seven interceptions). The Longhorns shouldn’t be expected to run either quarterback much; Manning wouldn’t be asked to run more than necessary for obvious reasons and in addition to Caldwell fumbling seven times (48 official rushing attempts, including sacks) in 2024, his elevation to QB1 would put KJ Lacey one play away from the first meaningful action of his true freshman season.
The closest thing Texas has had to a recognizable identity on offense is when it relies on Manning’s athleticism to extend plays. Manning's legs have taken pressure off the offensive line and created explosive plays down the field.
Even if Caldwell can’t do those things, Sarkisian is confident in the offense putting a winning brand of football on the field with the well-traveled veteran at the wheel.
“The game plan is the game plan,” Sarkisian said. “I think all of his teammates have a ton of confidence in Matt if it’s his time to go.”
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