DirectorsCupUpdates

By Monday morning things could become very clear. Sports will either be concluding or at least partially complete, giving us an idea of the floor for Texas’ score. It’ll also be clear how Stanford and Texas track may look. Our floor could be above Stanfords ceiling at that point.

Women's Golf finishes stroke play tied for 3rd and ends up the 4 seed in match play. They face #27 ranked EMU tomorrow in the quaterfinals. They have secured 72.75 points which was their projection. A win in match play tomorrow adds another 10 points! Also, congrats to Farah O'Keefe on the individual championship. No points towards the Directors' Cup for individual championships though.

Women's Golf is in a good position after 2/4 stroke play rounds. They are in 8th. The top 15 advance after the 3rd round and the top 8 advance to match play after the 4th round. They are just a few strokes away from 4th place, but also just a few places away from 13th place.

26 points on the line in this Super Regional for Softball. Would hurt but not a fatal blow to Texas. Baseball, has earned 25 points only with a predicted finish of 78. So, they still have 53 points they need to earn by winning games. Both teams could fall short of the prediction and Texas still has room to work with. Ideally, if they do drop points it isn't a large amount but we can survive in the Directors' Cup even if they do.

Seeding came out for rowing today and Texas is seeded to win... now, this is just seeding so things will have to play out on the water but it ultimately comes down to Texas vs Stanford in the 1v8 with Texas finishing 2nd in the race to Tenn with Stanford 3rd, tying with Stanford in points, and winning the championship based on the tiebreaker. Interestingly, Tennessee is seeded way low in the 1v4 and 2v8 races (5th and 8th). So even as the top seed in the 1v8 race which is worth the most points, they still fall short of Texas and Stanford by 12 points. Can they make up those 12 points in those earlier races during the meet? There are 22 teams at the meet and there are 3 races that go through a series of heats leading up to the finals. 1v4 (1st varsity 4) - this is a 4 person boat. 1st place scores 22 points, down by 1 point for each place after that, with last place scoring 1 point 2v8 (2nd varsity 8 ) - this is the 2nd best 8 person boat. 1st place scores 44 points (double), down by 2 pts for each place after that, with last place scoring 2 points. 1v8 (1st varsity 8 ) - this is the best 8 person boat. 1 place scores 66 points (triple), down by 3 points for each place after that, last place scores 3 points. Ties are broken based on which team has a better finish in the 1v8 race. Points - total - 1v4 - 2v8 - 1v8 Texas 126 - 21 - 42- 63 Stanford 126 - 22. - 44. - 60 Tenn. 114 - 18 - 30 - 66 Others of note Virginia 108, Princeton 106, Yale 104

Well, my worst freaking nightmare came to be. The SEC golf tournaments are scored based on match play for the top 8 teams and stroke play for 9-16. I had been told by someone in an SEC athletic department in the past that it was stroke play but they must have been wrong. Unfortunately, there is no detailed scoring info available but I have finally been in contact with the USA today writer who puts out the scores. Florida comes out on top by 0.25 points.

The 2nd place finish is very helpful. It was the expectation as the 2 seed. Nothing lost and nothing gained which is great for Texas with a nearly 100 point edge.

90 points right now, which was the projection as the 2seed. Another 10 points would be gravy!

They came very close (I believe it was last year) to making it to the tourney in baseball - I believe they were in the conference tourney semis. we could breathe a sigh of relief when they get eliminated next week. it’s not only +25, but would also give them a good chance to win a game or two in a regional and add 37.5 or 50 points.

Thanks for sharing that flotrack ranking. The USTFCCCA rankings gives teams points even if they are outside the top 8 in an event. This May inflate teams that have a decent amount of runners in the 10-20 range but few in the top 8. The flotrack rankings aren’t as kind to Texas. But still a difference in directors cup points of about 24 points. If things go well, Texas could have a comfortable edge going into track and 24 (or even 50+) points won’t hurt us.

As long as everyone stays relatively close to their projection, we’ve got some wiggle room. Would be great to not use all that leeway though - just win the whole thing by 100 points.

UCLA and Florida are basically out of it at this point. UNC is more of a threat for 3rd place than Florida at this point. Stanford will most likely score within 25 points in either direction of their current ranking - 1225-1275. Texas has a much broader range, anywhere from 1215 to 1375. A lot of dominoes would have to fall in Stanford's favor for things to get interesting, but we of course must wait for the on the field action to play out.

Teams ranked 8, 12, 13, 14, 15, 23 and 28 failed to advance. Texas has their sites on a top 5 finish so these teams don't exactly make that much easier - but it does slightly decrease the overall competition to advance to match play.

That 1V8 race at the NCAAs is going to be very exciting to watch. 3 boats going at it, all with a chance to win a natty most likely!

After knocking off #1 (at the time) Stanford H2H, Texas will face off with #3 Tennessee at the SEC championship this weekend. If they beat Tennessee, they will be an obvious favorite going in the NCAAs. Caveat being, the head to head results during the "regular season" don't always hold up when NCAAs come around. Also, Texas lost to Stanfords 4 person and 2nd string (2v8) eight person boats. They did win the 1st string (1V8) boat which is the most valuable. All that to say, it is possible Texas drops points to Stanford and other teams as well during NCAAs. That NCAA regatta will be interesting to track for sure.

Glad I could help. And yes, there will always be small amounts of variability among those of us that track this thing. I am glad to have a handful of others out there doing some tracking as it helps create a consensus. Don't hesitate to reach out if you have a question about scoring in a particular sport. There have been some oddities over the years that I have had to figure out (sorting out all the ties in golf after regionals is my least favorite part).

You said 20 sport cut off. It’s 19 sports. That’s probably why our score prediction is different.

https://x.com/Direct_Cupdates/status/2049456363336589434 UCLA, Florida have chances to add significant points in Tennis this weekend if they can advance. Stanford could too but the gain would be limited as they have sports already expected to score around 60 points. Texas needs to see both Tennis teams advance, either not advancing would lead to a significant score drop. 1 seed Stanford, 2 seed Texas, 3 seed UCLA in beach volleyball this weekend as well. Any change better or worse this weekend would adjust predicted score as well.

I am in New Orleans, not far from Gulf Shores. Not in the cards this year but maybe I'll plan to take a beach trip with my family during this week in future years!

Texas got the 2 seed, would meet 3 seed ucla in the semis. I think this is best for Texas as they are 3-2 on the year and have won the last 3 against ucla. Stanford gets the 1 seed, Texas is 0-3 vs Stanford this year.

It does, the NCAA tournament. Not the MPSF conference tournament they just won though. They should get a really good seed for the ncaa tournament, top 3, and have a great chance for a top 4 or better finish.

Nope. Not at all. I think it makes sense, so many more data points in a regular season. Also, if you used the conference tourney, you’d have so many ties just by the nature of the bracket format. Regular season does a better job of stratifying teams.

For the All Sports Trophy, sports with a true regular season - like baseball and softball - it is the regular season finish that counts. sports without a conference regular season - like track and field - it’s the sec championship finish that counts.