bierce

I think two might be enough if other things break favorably. The second win would have to be over A&M, which would give us 4 wins against the top 20 teams, 7 q1 wins, and 7 wins against the field (assuming OU also sneaks in). A third game would be against Auburn. But with a 50% chance of beating Vandy, we're looking at less than a 20% chance of winning two games in the SEC tournament. It could happen, but I'm not banking on it.

And NC State jumped them all since it missed the ACC tournament altogether. Keatts gone.

I disagree about the final four run being a fluke. It would have been a fluke if NC State had faced nothing but double digit seeds after the first round, but it beat 2 seed Marquette and then 4 seed Duke for the second time in 17 days. Add the win over UNC in the ACC tournament and the 13 point win over Tech, that was a run of great play, not luck.

I would have hoped by now that everyone would have gotten past suggesting Beard, Wright, Self, Donovan, and a few others who obviously are not coming to Austin.

I'm expecting a flurry of movement next weekend. With conference tournament action about to begin, it is time to look at which (other) schools might be making announcements soon. Virginia won the tiebreaker among the teams finished tied for 9-12 in the ACC, received a first round bye, and will play Georgia Tech in the second round of the ACC tournament Wednesday, noon ET. I suspect they will announce a new coach there very quickly if Virginia loses that game. Ryan Odom of VCU is supposedly the leading candidate now. Villanova has conference doormat Seton Hall on Wednesday, but it then has to play UConn Thursday. Nova is likely to miss the tournament for the third straight year under Kyle Neptune, and in the first two years, it was bounced from the NIT in the first round. Neptune is toast. It isn't just the three years without a tournament appearance, it is also the way Nova lost a bunch of games this year with late game collapses, despite being a team with 5 senior starters.

And that is it for the Terry tenure. We have to win at least two games in the conference tournament to even have a chance at the NCAA tournament, and it isn't happening. Worst season since Shaka's second year here.

UNC lost 82-69, so the day got a little better.

Really bad day so far for teams on the outside looking in. Arky, Georgia, Indiana, and Xavier all won. WVU is winning bigly. The only good thing that happened was Drake pulling the game out in the second half against Belmont, so it made it to the MVC finals. If it wins tomorrow, there is one less chance of a dance crasher.

If only the losing coach would go all Denethor on us.

OK, if we are only looking at the 3 who could have finished in 12th instead of the 4 who finished tied for 9-12, then I guess I would pick Vandy because it is by far the worst defensively.

Mississippi State

Lucky us. A "neutral" site game against Vandy in Nashville.

Georgia and Arky won today, creating a 4 way tie for seeds 9-12. Pretty sure we'll get Vandy, because it went 0-3 against Arky, MSU, Georgia.

Because college basketball coverage is his professional life, and he has staff researching for him, but for me this is so much mental masturbation.

I think that would require both OU and Texas to get to at least 19 wins, for there to be no upset winners of conference tournaments crashing the dance, and for some other teams on the bubble to falter. Each one of those has a good to decent chance of happening. All of them happening together? Eh, not a particularly strong bet.

That was the AAC tourney in reference to Memphis, and I don't think any other team would warrant an at large bid from that conference.

UC San Diego, maybe Drake because Indiana State was skipped last year. I just can't bring myself to put VCU in there, but maybe the win over Colorado State looks better now. Hard to believe Memphis would be left out if it loses the ACC tourney, and no one else works for me. And the WCC has two certs in Gonzaga and St. Mary's, but Santa Clara or San Francisco might surprise in the conference tourney. Gonzaga played well in beating both USF and Santa Clara on the road by 20 this week, but it is criminally overrated at 8 in NET and Pomeroy.

Boise State's 5 game winning streak which included home wins over UNM and Utah State and got BSU on the right side of the bubble just came to a screeching halt with a 83-73 home loss to Colorado State. Colorado State gets its first q1 win of the season and clinches the 2nd seed in the MWC tournament. Boise State falls to 4th or 5th depending on what SDSU does against Nevada tomorrow. And most importantly, Boise State will lose most of the support it had to be included in the tournament. 2-5 q1, 4-2 q2, and has 2 q3 losses. One of the q2 losses would be q3 if the NET people credited the loss to Washington State as a home loss instead of neutral. Game was played in Boise, just in a different arena. Anyway, the upshot is that Boise State just went from last in to somewhere in the first or next four out with this loss, depending on how the rest of the bubble fares this weekend.

Dayton just beat VCU 79-76. VCU is 2-1 in q1 games, but both are as weak as q1 wins get--road wins over NET 70 Dayton and NET 71 St. Joe's. Both Dayton and St. Joe's will move into the 60s with wins today. VCU is also now just 3-4 in q2 games. Most importantly, VCU has zero wins against the field. It lost at UNM, and it has a hideous q4 loss to Seton Hall on a neutral floor. It did beat Colorado State on a neutral floor, but CSU is on the outside right now. So, the question is whether VCU would still get a bid if it loses in the A 10 tournament. Had it won today, I would say it will get in regardless. Now I think it needs the autobid. There's just nothing of real value on the resume. A reverse split with Dayton, so each team got a q1 win? That's your big selling point?

Those guys are just throwing out every name, writing an article about each one, and none of it includes any insight on who the IU administration is really pursuing.

I was being kind to myself. I first enrolled in 1977, but I went back for two more degrees, the last after a few years' hiatus from academia, and I graduated the last time in 1990, so I called it 40 years ago.

Loucks told the Kings he is taking the FSU job, so two NBA assistants have gotten P5 HC jobs in two days.

I park on E 30th, south side of St. David's if I can't find a spot west of Medical Arts Parkway, grab a meal at Red River Cafe or Snarf's, and walk on down, reliving a lot of memories of days and nights spent on that side of campus 40 or so years ago.

54 brackets were updated yesterday. Near unanimity for all but one spot. Well, OU was left on 44 brackets, but 81.5% is clearly better than the rest fighting for the last spot, so we'll grant it the second to last spot for now. Xavier 19 (hosts Providence Saturday) (Xavier with 82% of winning according to Pomeroy) Boise State 15 (hosts Colorado State tonight) (66%) Texas 13 (hosts OU Saturday) (66%) Nebraska 12 (hosts Iowa Sunday) (73%) UNC 11 (visits Duke Saturday) (16%) Obviously UNC has the chance for the greatest gain, but it is a really small chance. Of course, if any of those teams move up, then someone is likely to move down. Indiana is currently missing from 4 updated brackets. Arky, tOSU, and SDSU are each missing from one. tOSU goes to Indiana Saturday.

I think it more of an attitude thing with Wade. He seems to delight in flouting authority. I don't think that will fly with the university administration. But I'm not a fly on the wall in CDC's office.