bierce

I should have stayed up for the end of the ISU-Arizona game. Arizona got its signature win, but it needed Love to hit a halfcourt three to force OT. Love hit a couple more 3s in OT, and UA won 86-75. There were only 40 seconds of game time in the second half when it wasn't a one possession game or tied. Only 11 seconds if you consider 4 point plays, which I don't because they are so rare. Seven point plays anyone? Class A technical on defending team, followed by a three, and a second technical while the shot is in the air? Make it an 8 point play because the second technical was called because the coach or defender went ballistic after being called for fouling the shooter. I can't wait to see one of those. So Arizona makes me eat my words about . . . nah. It was a good win, and that win might justify it being considered a top 20 team, but it wasn't before the game based on its record. Lots of interesting games today SEC Kentucky (16 NET, 22 Pom) @ Tennessee (4) Kentucky has won 3 of the last 4 games in Knoxville, and it was the underdog every time, but new coach and new players for Kentucky. Pomeroy penalized Kentucky earlier in the year for its 20 point loss to tOSU in NYC. Kentucky relies heavily on 3 point shooting, which is a distinctly un-Calipari characteristic. Squid's teams rarely shot a lot of threes, and they were even less rarely very good at it before last year. Tennessee allows a lot of threes to be taken, but 3pt% defense is tops in the country and 2nd in conference play. Only Vandy shot better than .303 against it. OU (47) @ A&M (13) Agroids received a nice schedule, getting LSU, OU, and Texas as the 3 teams it plays twice. It got 3 of the big 4 (Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama) at home. OU is coming off a win @ Arky. A&M is coming off--HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. It's still funny. This could be an interesting game if OU can hit threes. I know that is an obvious generalization that could apply to any game, but it could be a key to this game since OU has shot 3s well in conference play, and A&M allows teams to shoot 3s in conference more often than any other team, and it has been bad at 3pt% defense (13th in the conference). But mainly I think Curly, I mean Buzz and the Reed crowd won't let as much mayhem against them go uncalled. I guess Reed doesn't have a "Home of the Sixth Man" banner. Pity. Maybe I could sell T-shirts. South Carolina (90) @ Georgia (34) Here is where we might see the squeeze on our schedule. It will be hard for South Carolina to improve to 75 or better and Georgia to 30 or better to give us a pair of q1 games against those teams without one of them sweeping the other, so might as well pick your favorite to win them both. I don't think USCe is as bad as its 0-7 record says. It has played 3 games against protected seeds, 2 games against tourney cert Mississippi State, and a game against each of Vandy and OU. Four of the games were one possession or OT losses. It is one of the best overall rebounding teams in the conference, and it gets to the line more often than the opponents. On the other hand, USCe is very sloppy with the ball and has few chances left for a real statement win. Remaining games against protected seeds are on the road against Florida and Tennessee, so good luck with that. It has Mississippi and A&M in Columbia, Kentucky in Lexington, and Missouri in the other Columbia, but Missouri losing that game would hurt its chances of staying in the top 30. Such a twisted maze. Back later with other games around the country

tOSU won bigly. UCLA held off a USC rally and won 82-76 for its fourth straight win after 4 straight losses. Aday Mara was huge with 12 points, 11 rebounds, and 5 blocks. Funny how UCLA has come alive after getting a 7'3" guy with some touch, great rim protection, and hellacious rebounding effort a lot more time on the floor. I don't know why he played so little during UCLA's bad run, but he can be a game changer.

No appreciation for whole roasted pig served from a grocery cart on a mass transit carrier. What is this country coming to?

Penn State gave Michigan a game, but it went scoreless over the last 2:08 and lost 76-72 on a Michigan 9-0 to end the game. Ohio State is pulling away from Iowa in the second half. 45-32 with 13:00 left. And now it's becoming a rout. 50-32 with 12:25 left. Iowa is about to meet the fork. It isn't favored in the next 5 games, including 3 home games (Purdue, Wisconsin, Oregon). NIT is stamped all over this team.

I know. Genius.

I thought season 2 had some sillier elements, like the thing that prompted the OP here, and it passed a lot (if not most) of the villainy to one-dimensional cardboard cut-out furrinurs, but it was entertaining. I can't believe we now have to wait until late April for the last season of "You."

Pomeroy favors us in 6 remaining games but rounds the total w-l to 5-6. The differences are rounding and Pomeroy not favoring at Arky. But neither of these projections are taking injuries into account. I will be floored if we get to 10-8 with Kaluma missing several more games.

And if you start with a $1 dollar bet, lose 10 in a row, then win the 11th, you are betting $1024 on that 11th bet, and when you win, you realize a net return of $1.

FWIW, the bracketezookers agree with me about Arizona. It is in the middle of the 6 line, well behind Michigan State and behind Wisconsin and Louisville (and Memphjs, a team that is being seriously underrated by NET and Pomeroy). For the life of me, I can't figure out why Memphis at San Francisco in the Chase Center in San Francisco is a neutral site game while Penn State against Indiana is one arena in Philly is a home game for Penn State and Penn State against Drexel in another arena in Philly that is not Drexel's home arena and at which Drexel plays no other games this year is a road game for Penn State. Huh.

I'm not convinced we are in even if we finish 8-10 without there being something more of real value on the resume. Before we beat both Missouri and A&M, I was very much in the doubtful camp because an 8-10 record could have made almost entirely with wins against teams left out of the tournament (Arky and OU each x2, South Carolina, LSU) and home wins that aren't q1 (Georgia--it might be, but then again it probably won't come mid-March). But now we have at least one signature win. If we get another (say against Kentucky or Alabama in Austin) or against either team from the state of Mississippi or against Vandy, then we should be good even at 8-10. But if we beat LSU and South Carolina on the road and Georgia, OU, and Arkansas at our place, we finish with 8 wins in conference and could have only 2 q1 wins if LSU and Missouri both slide a little in NET rankings. Anyone feel utterly confident about us making the tournament with a 2-12 record in q1 games? We were 5-9 in q1 games last year, and I think most of us acknowledged that we were over-seeded to create a Barnes-Terry match in the second round. If we don't get another signature win, then we probably should worry about getting at least one win in the conference tournament. At 8-10 we'd be playing in the first round in against the pool of teams finishing in spots 9-16, meaning we would be playing the likes of South Carolina or LSU in the first round. That would not be a good game to lose 2 or 3 days before the committee makes it selections, particularly by a team with so few statement wins. But I've said before, and I'll say again, we are likely to win at least one game we are projected to lose and to lose at least one game we are projected to win. But let's not forget that our chances to beat anybody will be affected by Kaluma's (and Weaver's) availability.

Iowa State (6) @ Arizona (15) These teams obviously aren't on the bubble, so you might ask why I have included this game in my discussion. Well, it is the only game with two ranked teams tonight, but my main reason is far more sinister. (Hey, I gotta be me.) Just what the hell has Arizona done to deserve such a high ranking? 3-6 in q1 and 2-0 in q2. We are 3-5 and 2-1 (with the q2 loss being to defending champ UConn), and we are 32nd. Obviously we are seeing the pathetic state of our OOC schedule working against us there. Keep an eye on that. But more to the point, why is Arizona ranked above Michigan State, Wisconsin (8-2 and 9-4 in q1-q2) and ten spots above Louisville (5-5, 2-0)? Arizona has 0 wins over top 25 teams. It beat Baylor in Tucson. It lost in the Bahamas to bubble OU and WVU. It didn't score over the last 5 minutes in Lubbock and lost by 16. It can't be because Tommy Lloyd's teams have played above seed. Arizona has been seeded 1, 2, and 2 over the last three years and lost in S16 by 12 to a 5 seed (OK, Houston was ridiculously mis-seeded that year), in the first round to a 15 seed, and in the S16 to a 6 seed that led the game the entire last 15 minutes. Louisville is obviously punished for losing blowouts at home to Tennessee and Mississippi, but still . . .

SEC starts tomorrow, so this morning I will mention only today's games of interest around the country. If I find the time to start describing the mid-week SEC games, then I will, but one thing at a time. Numbers in Parentheses are NCAA net rankings. When Pomeroy greatly disagrees with the ranking, I'll try to mention it. B1G Iowa (62) @ Ohio State (30) We played tOSU on a neutral floor, so it doesn't much matter to us what happens to tOSU so long as it doesn't drop below 50. However, tOSU is just 13-8, and it already has a pair of q2 losses, and it is only 1-3 in conference at home, so it has reason to sweat a little, despite the recent impressive road win over Purdue. I'm not sold on Purdue as a top ten team yet, but that was a great win for tOSU. --tOSU has an easy remaining schedule for a B1G team--just 3 games left against teams in the NET top 30. Iowa is yet another in a long list of B1G pseudo-contenders for a tournament bid, joining Nebraska, Indiana, Northwestern. 6-0 in q2 games, but 0-6 in q1 games. It has played the easiest conference schedule of any B1G team so far, but 9 of its remaining games are q1. Iowa playing on 3 days fewer rest than tOSU, which was last seen winning @ Purdue last Tueday. Penn State (51) @ Michigan (20) Add PSU to the list of B1G conpretenders. It is still getting a lot of mileage out of a conference season opening home win over Purdue, but it doesn't have many chances left for another statement win. It wound up with the easiest schedule in the B1G by drawing Minnesota, Rutgers, and USC as the three teams it plays twice this year. Michigan was last seen losing by 27 @ Purdue. That can happen, and it was a different look for Michigan, which lost all its other games, in OT, by single baskets, or by single points, the most notorious being the time it fouled OU taking a three with 11 seconds to go and lost by a point. UCLA (33) @ USC (67) Add USC . . . yeah, you get it. USC has a bad loss at home to Cal to overcome, has nothing else of note on the nonconference schedule, did get a great win @ Illinois and is 4-4 in the conference, but the losses are by an average of 12 points. USC's other q1 win was a road win against mid-slump Nebraska, so take that with a block of salt. It has 7 q1 games left IF tOSU stays in the top 30. It will have to play quite a bit better than it has so far to save a bid. Cronin is always a good bet for interesting commentary during and after a game. Maybe he'll join Willard in complaining about imbalance of rest, since USC last played on Wednesday while UCLA ended its 3 game road losing streak by winning at UDub on Friday.

I don't only binge watch college basketball.

Winner!

Getting warm here.

Not even one with glass pipes.

Just for a tiny bit of clarification, this has nothing to do with a Hunter Thompson type situation.

Do hotel maids have jugs of sulfuric acid and ethanol on their carts? Yeah, I didn't think so. I'll later post the reveal of why I asked this.

Indiana has Purdue x2, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Michigan State in its next 6 games.

Does firing the coach count? Will be a bit of a tough end to the Woodson era, but they still think they are (or should be) basketball royalty in Bloomington. And they aren't, and they haven't been for quite some time.

If you double your bet every game, then all you need to do is win the last game.

There are some terrific offensive teams in this conference, but Mississippi has scored 80 in conference only once, and that was when it scored 81 in an OT game. Tennessee is averaging only 60 points in conference games. Auburn scored 70 or fewer in half of its conference games. A&M broke 80 only once in 7 games. Vandy broke 80 only once. You don't win with offense. You don't win with defense. You win with both by outscoring the other team. And right now, the stats say it is our defense that has been more of a problem. I know our offense sputters and looks ugly and goes on long stretches struggling to score, but the numbers show we have been worse on defense, and that is with us having played teams that collectively measure a little better on defense than on offense in conference play. Our defensive numbers might look worse than they otherwise might be if not for the serious collapse we showed on that end in Gainesville, but we aren't protecting defensive glass, we aren't forcing turnovers, and we are surrendering a high percentage both inside and outside the arc. We're a good ft shooting team, but we can't count on ft and ft% disparity to carry us to many wins.

There is no way to make an educated guess until we know when Kaluma and Weaver will return to action. And 7-11 won't get us there without a really big win in the conference tournament.

Northwestern tried to come back but came up short 83-74, so all the Big Ten teams needing a win to climb back into contention lost. Indiana made it close, but it was playing at home against an unranked team, so no points for it. I'll post something tomorrow about Monday's games. SEC teams won't start up again until Tuesday.