Gerry,
As others have pointed out already, your analysis is spot on. I have an additional thought for you to consider. I think Sark has done a very poor job helping Arch in 2 facets.
First it seems clear to me Arch is being told to refrain from running if at all possible. When left to his own instincts Arch killed Michigan in our bowl game - when things broke down he ran without hesitation.
Second, Sark is a big advocate of a sophisticated passing tree, which requires a lot of quick reads and decisions by the QB. Arch is not making many easy quick throws, he’s over thinking every play. I don’t believe you can play at an entirely conscious thought process - the games is too fast.
Anyway, I appreciate. Your honestly, and I too am hoping and praying for Arch - he’s a great person.