CHorn427

As we all know, the national media is essentially divided into Arch-hypers and Arch-detractors. I keep hearing many national analysts on the detractor side essentially refer to Arch Manning like he is comparable to a standard first year starter in college football. "Texas has a first year starter at QB, you know how that can go", etc. Before diving into any stats, hearing that just caused some cognitive dissonance for me because right off the bat so many caveats come to mind when thinking of comparing Arch Manning to a first year starter. But I wanted to do an actual comparison with research and statistics, so that's what this post is for. For the sake of this, let's completely ignore that Arch is a Manning. Just an anonymous college QB. What are the objective characteristics of this QB that can be compared to current and former QBs across the country? 1. Former 5* recruit 2. Had to sit behind another former 5* recruit that already had a year of starting experience 3. Doesn't transfer to another program 4. Racks up quality game time experience in 2 years in backup capacity 5. Isn't the week one or season-majority starter until Year 3 or later So, to begin my comparison, I considered criteria #1, #3 and #5 and looked for former 5* recruits that eventually started at the program they signed with out of HS, but not until year 3 or later. I used 247 recruit rankings and went back to the 2010 class (earliest available on 247). Surprisingly, other than Arch, there have only been 3 other former 5* QBs that fit these criteria: Max Browne (USC), Davis Mills (Stanford) and Ty Simpson (Bama). Next, I was curious about how these players compared to Arch for criteria #2 and #4. #2. Who started ahead of Browne, Mills and Simpson? How much experience relative experience did they have? Browne: Cody Kessler, former 4* recruit with zero years of starting experience prior to Browne's first year on campus(2013) Mills: KJ Costello, former 4* recruit with zero years of starting experience prior to Mills' first year on campus (2017) Simpson: Jalen Milroe, former 4* recruit with zero years of starting experience prior to Simpson's first year on campus (2022) #4. How do the stats prior to being the week one or season-majority starter stack up? I'll add up all stats from the other 3. The Field: 0 Starts, 40/71, 56% completion, 524 yds passing, 0 passing TDs, 0 INTs, 148 yds rushing, 3 rushing TDs Arch: 2 Starts, 63/95, 66% completion, 969 yds passing, 9 passing TDs, 2 INTs, 115 yds rushing, 4 rushing TDs Conclusion: Arch Manning is unique to say the least

Did they measure him with his cleats and helmet on or did he have a growth spurt? Nick Saban in 5’6’’

Which of those years did we have a returning All American or Fr All American at all 3 levels of the defense?

1. Kyler Murray, 2. Mayfield, 3. Cam Newton, 4. Colin Klein, 5. Every OU receiver from 2010 to 2022, 6. Shedeur Sanders

Steve Edmund was a bright spot in a dark time

Dodged a few by the sounds of it

Can’t comment on that- have one myself! 😂

If anybody is curious who the guy on the right making the shooting gesture is- that’s UGA’s Safeties coach. His recruiting pitch to the Best in Texas must have included promises to be his personal passenger seat gunman at the next level. Kirby’s got that Urban Meyer culture going in Athens.

Not sure he’s “the best in Texas”, but definitely glad he’s leaving Texas. He’ll be right at home in Athens, GA. Kirby should try soliciting bail bondsmen to contribute to UGA NIL. Would be a good investment for the bondsmen. #TransactionsOverCorrections

The difference between other programs and Texas, though, is that Texas is objectively/measurable better in quite a few ways. One of them, for instance: Austin is the largest American city with a flagship state university and no “big 3” pro sports teams. That is objectively important in the NIL age. Also, we are the only team that has been to both of the last two final fours. Also, the team with the most combined draft picks in the last two drafts. On the point about Dawg Nation trashing Atkinson: just another reason to be appreciative of the class of OTF.

Geoff Ketchum could have the freshest Longhorn news a day before everyone else and I would still listen to Bobby and the Boys give me a verbatim recap a day later, but in a far less obnoxious video. Purely hypothetical statement because OTF always has the latest and greatest, but applicable nonetheless. 🤘

Btw, any written response is too much effort to put forth towards those sour grape hypocrites. Just send em somethin like this and a🤘

Oh, you mean “Texas haters from Georgia” “Georgia hater” is me. I hate those MFers

Exhibit A: https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/shemar-stewart-contract-standoff-with-cincinnati-bengals-could-lead-to-nfl-draft-re-entry/amp_articleshow/122531793.cms Aggie draft picks should be blackballed from the first round if Elko accepts Stewart back on to the team. IMO, would be idiotic to sacrifice relationships with the NFL and front offices to take one player like this back on to your team. Tell your guy to grow up and be a big boy.

I’d be willing to bet Auburn overperforms and Bama underperforms these expectations. Jalen Milroe was an absolute cheat code with the QB run, especially in the RZ. IMO, Bama’s QB this year will need to be a Top 10 QB in the country with his arm to make up what they’re losing with Milroe gone. I don’t personally see that happening. They will also likely take more sacks this year.

One of those L’s Sark took vs DeBoer has a big asterisk imo with Bijan and RoJo both sitting out. Also, Sark arguably outcoached DeBoer in the Sugar Bowl. No reason Texas should have been remotely close to winning that game. Young backs fumbling and Quinn’s lack of clutch cost us that one.

In a surprise to no one. Finebaum is the world’s #1 SEC homer.

That’s what I thought. I guess Deion just doesn’t read the news or know that the House settlement is essentially establishing a salary cap

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/45703663/deion-sanders-says-college-football-needs-salary-cap It seems he's saying there should be a positional cap and suggests that is how it is in the NFL? I'm not a big NFL guy so I may be off here, but I don't think there is a positional salary cap in the NFL, right? Just one total salary cap per team and positional value is determined (and frequently reset) by the market?

There was a period in the 80s and early 90s where the Aggies dominated us (with healthy help from extracurricular recruiting activity from what I’ve understood). I think that period has made it more of a rivalry and given the Aggies at least something they can hang their hat on. Without that period, it is even more one sided than the overall record indicates. A common line from the Aggies is “Since 1979, the series is 17-17” or something like that.

I think a part of it is that Tech and teams like them taking this approach are gambling that they can trap the recruits for a year, win immediately and then the recruits might be content missing the “verbally agreed upon” stuff once they’re part of a “winner”. it’s shady and desperate, but shadiness and desperation are virtues in places like Lubbock and LA

Fair. But in a bad situation a player can be mediocre and not make it close to the top of the problems list on a team so full of problems. I definitely haven’t watched tape of his play as a Cowboy or looked into any individual stats. I just typically think of centers as the leader of the OL and look particularly at run YPG as an indicator of interior OL success. We’ll see how much they improve this year. I know last year they also struggled with one dimensionality

Has he, though? I'll need the Cowboys to rush for more than 100.3 YPG this year to support that claim.

That is the last time the Big12 had an offensive linemen drafted in the first round from a program other than OU, Texas or TAMU. Outside of those teams, Big12 has had 5 OL drafted in the first round this millennium. We all know the OL draft woes Texas has had- yet Texas has still had more first round OL this Millenium than any current or former Big12 program other than OU or TAMU (3: Kelvin Banks, Leonard Davis, Mike Williams). It's quite clear the NFL doesn't think highly Big12 offensive lines.

Spurning Texas for Texas Tech is literally spurning a HC with pro experience and connections for a HC who’s spent the majority of his career in HS. Short sighted is an extreme euphemism. But it’s honestly a great filter. Guys with a HS/Texas Tech mindset are probably not who we want in our locker room.