All depends on Swain's decision - portal numbers (that goes into need, and NIL available). Matas won't be cheap - tier 1/blue bloods are reaching out to his agent (he's considered very elite at center by college coaches). Two players, if they both ended up coming back, would take up around 45-50% of possible/expected NIL. Goosby wasn't cheap. So what Texas can do with 3-4 needs will tell the story IMO. If Swain goes pro, more NIL money to build out the 2026-27 roster, but that's a tough player to replace for a tier 2/tier 3 NIL program.
Miller will build the program (which is what he should do). But a lot ultimately will come down to where NIL goes in the top tier of CBK, and how far off from the top the 2nd/3rd tiers sit in the NIL world.
Texas has the coach. If Texas can't compete in the correct sandbox, then the build is on a different timeline, and they will have to catch lightening in a bottle on 2-3 guys to ultimately maximize.
Miller was brought to Texas to legitimately build a sustainable program. He's really good, so it will happen. But seriously unrealistic fan base expectations in the college sports world rarely support that anymore.
Something else that is of note: NIL wise I've talked to two college coaching buddies, and the demands of NIL levels required in major conferences are going to push for more 8 guys using up 75-80% of NIL in a lot of cases. Have a couple of minor role players at 15'ish %, and couple of developmental players. That means team health is going to take on more importance, and can crush some seasons. Roster depth not expected to be as prevalent with rev share affording every school the ability to compete/win out for really good role players.