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As an old school SWC fan (who did all I could to stay in school) my gut tells me that unless you're a 1st or 2nd round pick, you should stay in school. So I bounced the risk/rewards off of Grok: For a college football player projected as a **Round 3 or 4 pick**, the decision to declare early for the NFL Draft involves a balanced but risky **risk-reward calculation**. The financial upside is meaningful compared to staying in school, but the career longevity and success rates in those mid-rounds are modest, and returning to college can significantly boost draft stock (and thus earnings) while providing other benefits in the NIL era. ### Rewards of Declaring Early (Going Pro) - **Immediate Money**: Rookie contracts are slotted and fully guaranteed for most practical purposes in early rounds. - A typical Round 3 pick in recent drafts (e.g., mid-round) signs a 4-year deal worth ~$5-6 million total, with ~$1-2 million guaranteed (mostly signing bonus). - Round 4: ~$4-5 million total, with ~$800k-$1.2 million guaranteed. - You get paid right away (signing bonus upfront), start your NFL clock, and have a shot at proving yourself for a second contract. - **Professional Opportunity**: If you're projected Day 2 (Rounds 3-4), you're likely talented enough to get drafted and compete for a roster spot. Many mid-round picks become contributors or starters (e.g., ~30-40% chance of becoming a solid starter in Round 3, dropping to ~15-20% in Round 4 based on historical data). - **Avoid Risk of Decline**: One bad senior season, injury in college, or stock drop could push you to Round 5-7 (much lower pay) or undrafted. ### Risks of Declaring Early - **Short Career Potential**: Average NFL career for mid-round picks is ~4-6 years, but many don't last beyond their rookie deal. - Round 3 picks average ~50-60 games played historically; Round 4 closer to 40-50. - Only ~40-50% of Day 2/3 picks play out their full rookie contract as regulars; many are cut early. - If you flame out, you've forfeited college eligibility—no return option. - **Limited Upside Compared to Rising**: Mid-round money is good but not life-changing like Rounds 1-2. If you stay and dominate, you could jump to Day 1/early Day 2 (e.g., $10-30M+ contracts). - **Opportunity Cost**: In the NIL era, top players earn $500k-$2M+ per year in college via endorsements/collectives. Staying often means similar (or better) short-term cash without the NFL grind/injury risk. ### Benefits of Staying in College - **Boost Draft Stock**: Many players projected mid-rounds return and become top-100 or even first-round picks (common examples: improved film, leadership, stats lead to higher grades). - NFL Advisory Committee often recommends staying for projected Round 3+ grades to improve positioning. - **NIL Earnings + Development**: Make serious money now (often comparable to mid-round rookie salaries for stars), finish degree, refine skills, and reduce injury risk in pro-style offenses. - **Fewer Early Declarations Overall**: Post-NIL, underclassmen entries have dropped ~50%—most who declare now are projected Rounds 1-3, meaning mid-round projections increasingly stay. - **Fallback**: Degree + NIL resume provides security if NFL doesn't pan out long-term. ### Overall Assessment - **If Projected Firmly Round 3**: Lean toward going pro—the money is solid (~$5M+ deal), and waiting risks falling lower. - **If Borderline Round 3/4 or Lower**: Strongly consider staying—history shows big jumps possible, and NIL makes college lucrative. - The NFL is high-risk regardless: Even drafted players have ~3-6 year average careers, with mid-rounders often needing to fight for spots. Advice from scouts/GMs: Get feedback from the NFL College Advisory Committee. If they say "Round 3 or better," go. If "return to school," the data backs staying for most mid-tier projections. It's rarely a slam-dunk either way—personal development, injury history, and finances (NIL offers) tip the scale.

My list: - Rod has the best aphorisms and energy. - CJ has the best mixed metaphors and hair. - Jeff has the most versatility (he literally can talk every sports from football, basketball, baseball, etc) - Coach Shipley has the lowest filter. - Gerry (don’t tell him I said this) is the funniest. - Blake is the most even keel.

At the college level her height alone adds something to them

So the real MVP - and I think everyone from Gerry to Rod, Jeff, CJ, Blake, Coach Shipley, etc. - would agree is Matt, our producer. He does so many things behind the scenes and helps every single one of us. And Blake Munroe would be a close second. Blake produces every morning show and Matt produces every other show. Those two are the real MVPs IMO.

https://www.youtube.com/live/bwaVLSm79eA?si=yr4Ed0cStH17_msV

Most disgusting thing put in his mouth: @Gerry Hamilton

When was he on? I'd like to watch it.

Due to her age and inexperience, Tournebize played sparingly for Bourges this season in both the LBW and EuroLeague. Her stats were almost identical in both competitions: 7.6 minutes, 2.9 points, 1.7 rebounds in the LBW and 7.3 minutes, 2.4 points and 1.9 rebounds in EuroLeague.

Best surprise guest: Sergio Kindle He was hilarious, knowledgeable, and had great insights into Muschamp. He’s also one of the few people alive who has an understated opinion of Colin Simmons. My jaw was on the ground when Bobby asked his opinion of Simmons and Serge was like “eh, he’s pretty good. But he can be better.” Awesome guest. Hope they bring him back again.

Here are some ideas for awards and winners for an annual otf awards this year. Who wons your awards? Most improved - @CJ Vogel Started on otf as a surprise addition by bobby and has blown up this hear to becoming an elite insider! This year he has stepped his game up to a whole new level and it has been amazing to witness Newcomer of the year - @mgm32 Marcus Myers Bobby git him on the show as a regular during the season and has brought the fire! Holds it down both in the shows and in the chat, engaging with everyone! Best regular guest - Tony Hills Preacher Tony has brought his pulpit to OTF with Trench Church every wednesday! He has used his pulpit as an effective weapon to ignite OTF with the same intensity he played with. MVP - @Bobby Burton Can it be anyone else? The man has pushed OTF to be the best in the business and does it with pride and ethics. He lets everyone be themselves but requires they do it with integrity. He works tirelessly and built the team that got over 250k subscribers in 2 years.

I saw this the other day and was shocked they could do that but it's apparently common. Theres no rule you cant come in mid season and since shes allowed to enroll in January at the university she can play. They just got way better

Sean Miller needs to get on it and find us a stud point guard that can shoot the tock pronto!

Our sports need to bend the rules like these other college are to their advantage

I don’t think Simon will transfer. Being a Louisiana guy I think playing for Jaluke will be good incentive to stay.

Agree you can’t keep recruiting top players in the country and have them ride the pine, or they aren’t top players plenty of true freshman stars across the country

...and she is instantly joining the team! We have 3 available scholarships on our time right now, perhaps Coach Vic should be scouring the pro leagues in Europe too. There is plenty of talent over there.

1. Baugh 2. Portal 3. Terry 4. Cooper 5. Jett Simon and Clarke transfer. We have a complete rehaul of the room

I believe Rod Babers who says nickel is the hardest position to play in the secondary.

Interesting player is speed is correct.

That Ship has sailed I would say. The kid and his family love them some Michigan style dysfunction it appears… I do find it interesting that a Hawaiian kid is dead set on going to an entirely different climate and freezing his butt off.

Are we sure that guy won't stay at Utah with Whittingham's hand-picked successor?

All of those stats AND makes his own press release tweet of his transfer. Some of those hits though.. looks like Muschamp and a whiteboard

I dont think Baugh will pull QB money. He will likely get $1.5-2mil; nonetheless, you cant have both and that is the issue. Wisner is a good change of pace RB but his production over 3 yrs does not show featured running back status. Undoubtedly, he wants to be the featured back next year to redeem himself for the draft and that is not going to happen at Texas now.

In 2024 he was 3rd in the SEC in rushing with 1k yards avgeraging 4.7 ypc. His numbers were down this year partly due to injury and the oline. I’m not arguing whether or not he is worth 1 mil as I don’t know what the going rate is for a rb with his production. I trust the coaches decision and I wish him the best. I do think 2 starter level backs are needed from the portal for next season to get through a tough schedule. I also think it’s going to be difficult to get 2 of that caliber.