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Mount Bevo (Rushmore) Texas Defensive Ends / Edge
Oldest Horn replied to Purplehorn3's topic in On Texas Football Forum
Simms was primarily a DT at Texas. -
My mom would say, "He just wrote a check that his ass can't cash".
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Four Days Until Kickoff: Who Was The Best No. 4?
TexEx15 replied to Blake Munroe's topic in On Texas Football Forum
DeShon Elliott was robbed of the Thorpe in what I believe is one of the biggest snubs that is never talked about. All because Texas was terrible that year. -
Notre Dame right now, yes. ND CB Leonard Moore - top 10 pick in 2027 ND CB DJ McKinney - top 3 round pick in 2027 likely ND N/CB Christian Gray - NFL mid-round pick in 2027 ND S Tae Johnson - NFL top 2 round pick in 2027 ND S Adon Shuler - NFL top 3 round pick in 2027 Those guys have experience. See where Littleton is after mid-way part of the season. He could very well join them, but he still has to go do it in year two.
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SP+ Sim: tapping the breaks
HookEmLonghorns replied to HookedOnTF's topic in On Texas Football Forum
Great analysis, thanks. I know a lot of people disagree with me but I’d much rather have our schedule than Notre Dame’s. I want to watch as many great games as possible this season. I don’t want to watch 9+ predetermined blowouts, followed by a relatively untested team going into the first game of the cfp with the potential to immediately go home. Of course I want the natty, but that’s not promised to anyone. And if I had to choose, I’d rather have 3-4 (hopefully 5) months of meaningful games week-after-week than a few scattered weeks of decent opponents and a slightly higher likelihood of winning it all. The up-and-down journey through the season is a huge part of what makes the game so damn captivating and fun to watch. I love how this season is setting up. Can’t wait for it to start! -
Marcel Reed stoking the flames
Realist Horn replied to Hank South's topic in On Texas Football Forum
bull caca! If he didn't like Texas, why the heck was he giving our defense the ball last year like he was handing out candy! -
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Mount Bevo (Rushmore) Texas Defensive Ends / Edge
GoHorns1 replied to Purplehorn3's topic in On Texas Football Forum
Add Bill Atessis. Kenneth Simms -
Crazy business to be focused on your last game of the season in week zero. Watch em struggle vs ASU
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OTF Premium Texas basketball 2026-27 season thread
Gerry Hamilton replied to Gerry Hamilton's topic in On Texas Football Forum
CBS Gary Parrish's updated top 25 and 1 Texas still at No. 5 overall https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/college-basketball-rankings-top-25-1-missouri-mark-mitchell-kentucky/ I'm a little different ... My current SEC rankings: 1. Florida 2. Texas 3. Arkansas 4. Tennessee - lost PF Jalen Washington to a "stay" currently 5. Missouri - moves up to 4 IF Mark Mitchell ends up being eligible 6. Vanderbilt 7. Alabama 8. Kentucky 9. Georgia 10. Ole Miss 11. Texas A&M - Watching Jordan Pope's eligibility here 12. Auburn 13. Oklahoma - multiple guys are involved in "stay"'s / injuctions 14. Mississippi State 15. South Carolina 16. LSU - no way to know what the roster will look like today -
Marcel Reed stoking the flames
Lock n Horns replied to Hank South's topic in On Texas Football Forum
That’s because fortunately, Texas’ success is currently defined by whether they beat A&M or not -
Marcel Reed stoking the flames
Ronnie Barnhardt replied to Hank South's topic in On Texas Football Forum
I know they get asked directly about Texas, but, interestingly, they continue to give these bulletin board answers that you don't see with Texas players, or really at any big-time, professionally run programs. I wonder if this is somewhat of an indictment on Elko as a leader or how he chooses to run his program -
Marcel Reed stoking the flames
Tuco Ramirez replied to Hank South's topic in On Texas Football Forum
Didn’t Weigman say something similar a couple of years ago before he got injured, lost his job, and we beat aggy in collie station? - Today
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Marcel Reed stoking the flames
Steamboat Willie replied to Hank South's topic in On Texas Football Forum
For a game in late November, I like his focus!!! -
I’ll just leave this here for the Agros to decipher 78-37-5 ikykwk
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The Standard is the Standard and I'm as excited for the season as anyone, but, the math on "national title or bust" is just a reminder to enjoy the season and players regardless of reaching the mountaintop. Bill Connely's SP+ model has a preseason bias but it's a useful barometer with a million simulations to paint the picture. Step 1: You have to get in. SP+ gives Texas a 27.5% shot at making the CFP field. Read that the other way: roughly a 72% chance we're watching the bracket from home. And the bar to entry is lower than people think — in ESPN's sim run, a 9-3 Alabama makes the field. The goal isn't 12-0. The goal is 9-3 with the right losses, and even that's a bet we're losing three times out of four. Step 2: You have to win three or four straight against the best teams Bill points out that best case, if a dominant CFP team is a 70% favorite in every playoff game, (Reality: 50/50 - 60/40 but run with it), chances to - Win 3 in a row: 0.70³ = 34% - Win 4 in a row: 0.70⁴ = 24% Multiply against a 27.5% chance of making it and you're at 6-9%. That's the *optimistic* version. What SP+ is actually saying about Texas: Title odds are 3.6%, ninth nationally. Divide that by our 27.5% chance of making the field and you get about a 13% chance of winning it all conditional on being in. For that to be true, our per-game playoff spread is a field goal favorite on a neutral field, four times in a row. As an aside, Vegas gives Texas a pretty premium to win a title: | Team | SP+ | Vegas | Kalshi | | Ohio State | 14.2% | ~11.4% | ~10.7% | | Notre Dame | 10.4% | ~9.9% | ~10.7% | | Oregon | 11.1% | ~8.7% | ~9.0% | | Georgia | 7.4% | ~8.7% | ~8.1% | | Texas| 3.6% | ~8.2% | ~9.8% | | Indiana | 7.1% | ~7.4% | ~7.3% | | Miami | 4.4% | ~5.7% | ~6.4% | | Texas Tech | 4.6% | ~3.5% | ~3.0% | | LSU | 4.1% | ~3.2% | ~4.7% | | Texas A&M | 2.9% | ~2.9% | ~3.0% | Look at that table before you decide Bill's sim hates us. Seven of the ten agree within a point or two. SP+ is actually higher than the market on Ohio State, Oregon and Texas Tech.. The market pays Texas 2.5x what the sim does, the widest gap on the board. The confidence in this fanbase is showing up as a line — and then we turn around and cite the line as proof the confidence is justified. That's a circle, not an argument. But! The most damning number in that table isn't ours, it's Ohio State's. SP+'s best team in the country has a 14.2% chance to win it all. And we will know how we measure up in 3 weeks. Back to step 1, making the CFP in a 9 game SEC schedule SP+ Sim Conference title odds: Georgia 21.0%, Texas 12.5%, LSU 12.0%, Texas A&M 9.5%. Those four combine for 55%, meaning 45% of the time somebody else wins it. Winning the league and the seeding that comes with it is the most valuable thing we can do, and we're the second choice at one-in-eight. Summary: what an honest good season looks like even if it is disapointing: Make the field (that alone puts us in the top ~27% of our own outcome distribution) and win a playoff game. Unsatisfying given '23 and '24 for sure, but calling that a failure means calling ~97% of possible 2026 seasons a failure. So, it's All Gas on enthusiasm but tap the breaks on championship or bust. Hook 'Em!
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What do y'all think? On offense: Trevor Goosby, Cam Coleman, Ryan Wingo, Melvin Siani, and Brandon Baker. On defense: Colin Simmons, Jelani McDonald, Rasheem Biles, and Hero Kanu I believe having at least 2-3 players on your offensive and defensive teams that could start on any college football team in America says you have a stacked roster! Just having fun. I'd love to hear what the MODS think! I know......no Arch! @CJ Vogel @Bobby Burton @Gerry Hamilton @Rod Babers @Hank South @Jeff Howe
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Marcel Reed stoking the flames
Gerry Hamilton replied to Hank South's topic in On Texas Football Forum
Same!