The Complexity of a Portal Decision

[DrRush]

I'm a mentor to a young man who experienced the portal madness from a basketball player perspective two years ago. He's now playing professionally and felt great about his decision, but it's hard to describe how complicated this week is for these players. 

I've seen so many posts (and Tweets) that say something along the lines of, "We're Texas! Why wouldn't people just line up to play here?" OR "We're Texas! Why would anyone leave here given all they offer?" But that's not what they're thinking. I'm sure football is a little different, but I'd bet most of what my guy experienced translates. This guy was living at our home during the "visit season" and we set up a "war room" to go over every option. Here's what they go through: 

• Coaches are calling and texting constantly. I'm talking every every few minutes, the phone rings. 100's of texts. 
• Once they have a sense that the player has interest, graphics and videos start coming in. They'll send film cuts showing plays where the player would fit seamlessly into their game plan. 
• On a less technical side, some coaches would use technology to put the player in that team's jersey, on the court, in headlines, etc. Most of that was cheesy, but I'm sure it appealed to some kids who cared about uniforms. 
• The lead recruiters always ask the same question: "Besides your agent, who's helping you make this decision?" And once they get a name, that person begins receiving texts constantly and the coaches want to set up phone calls with them right away. Remember: these guys are 18-22 years old and tend to not be executive communicators. The coaches want to know what the hot buttons are. One SEC Coach called my cell phone and talked to me for an hour. Another Big East assistant coach texted me every hour on the hour until my guy said no. It's bonkers. 
• Their first priority is to get you on a Facetime or Zoom call. If it's a stud, it'll be at least the head coach. Their second priority is to fly you in ASAP. 
• Once you go in the portal, from an existing relationships standpoint, it gets lonely in a hurry. The current coaches who had been allies a day earlier go silent. They're not being mean; they're just moving on, and they're in a firestorm too. These athletes are trying to get transcripts in order and thinking about class starting in two weeks. It's unbelievable pressure for a kid. 

Obviously, money talks, but it's not all about money. They're all asking TWO questions, and some are asking THREE questions that are not directly money related. 

1. Will I start, and can I be a key part in the game-time strategy? Some coaches would come out and promise guarantee a starting role, which caused me to lose respect for them. I was far more impressed with coaches who said something like, "We'll give you every opportunity to be a star here, and if you work your butt off, we have plans for you that go far beyond just getting on the floor." Another part of this equation is asking how many players already on the roster are overlapping your skillset and position/role. (This is going to be a major issue with our wide receiver prospects, in my opinion, because there's a BUNCH of young WR's on the roster if they stay, plus Wingo and Mosely. Other schools are going to use this negatively against us. It's going to take a guy with supreme confidence who signs and says, "Let's do this.")  This is the primary priority for most of the guys LEAVING Texas, I'd guess. They don't have a path to the field. I have tremendous respect for Sark and his staff, because it appears that there have been no empty promises. They've been brutally honest about their chances at Texas, and over time, other players will hear about that reputation. That will bode well. Some of guys will gladly go to a lower-tier program in order to prove themselves and maybe jump back in the portal after a productive year.
2. Will this school give me the best chance to get to the League? That often means they're in one of the elite conferences with maximum exposure (although smaller market coaches will try to sell the idea that you can come be the best player in their history and that scouts can find you anywhere). MOST guys are going to see this as a tightrope to walk with the first question: They're asking, "Where can I go where I can PLAY but also be on a great team and in a great league that proves I can play with the BEST?" Incidentally, top-tier guys are more than willing to take a "pay cut" if it means this path is stronger. This is where the ultimate payday comes. My friend turned down hundreds of thousands of dollars to go to the right coach and the right fit, and he's glad he did. 
3. Can we win a championship? This question is for the elite players only. It mattered for my guy for sure, but it was also the THIRD priority by FAR. Lots of guys will choose to go one step from a championship contender to have a greater chance to play. Lots of guys will choose to go one step from a championship contender to have a greater chance to play. Again: the "bell cows" will have the luxury to choose this and know they're going to play. Most players will have to gamble their playing time to be on one of the top ten teams. 

A few other very real factors that come into play : How far will I be from my support system/ family/ home? Do I like the coach? Did I grow up hating this school, and will I feel like a traitor? Is this the school I loved growing up and I wish I would have done it to begin with? Do I have high school friends (from all-star games, etc) or teammates who I know on the team who I know I can gel with? Do I like the town? 

So now: imagine you're asking all of these questions, you're 20 years old, you have family and friends and alumni in your ear with all of their advice, and most of these well-meaning people don't know what they're talking about. Even worse, some have ulterior motives. 

It's complicated. The good news is Texas has some GREAT wins in the portal these past few years, and that was when they seemed to be far more interested in in-house development. I have no doubt Sark and CO will do just as well with this new, more aggressive portal strategy. Hook Em! 

 

[Stevekap]

Great info

[Rocky P]

18 minutes ago, DrRush said:

I'm a mentor to a young man who experienced the portal madness from a basketball player perspective two years ago. He's now playing professionally and felt great about his decision, but it's hard to describe how complicated this week is for these players. 

I've seen so many posts (and Tweets) that say something along the lines of, "We're Texas! Why wouldn't people just line up to play here?" OR "We're Texas! Why would anyone leave here given all they offer?" But that's not what they're thinking. I'm sure football is a little different, but I'd bet most of what my guy experienced translates. This guy was living at our home during the "visit season" and we set up a "war room" to go over every option. Here's what they go through: 

• Coaches are calling and texting constantly. I'm talking every every few minutes, the phone rings. 100's of texts. 
• Once they have a sense that the player has interest, graphics and videos start coming in. They'll send film cuts showing plays where the player would fit seamlessly into their game plan. 
• On a less technical side, some coaches would use technology to put the player in that team's jersey, on the court, in headlines, etc. Most of that was cheesy, but I'm sure it appealed to some kids who cared about uniforms. 
• The lead recruiters always ask the same question: "Besides your agent, who's helping you make this decision?" And once they get a name, that person begins receiving texts constantly and the coaches want to set up phone calls with them right away. Remember: these guys are 18-22 years old and tend to not be executive communicators. The coaches want to know what the hot buttons are. One SEC Coach called my cell phone and talked to me for an hour. Another Big East assistant coach texted me every hour on the hour until my guy said no. It's bonkers. 
• Their first priority is to get you on a Facetime or Zoom call. If it's a stud, it'll be at least the head coach. Their second priority is to fly you in ASAP. 
• Once you go in the portal, from an existing relationships standpoint, it gets lonely in a hurry. The current coaches who had been allies a day earlier go silent. They're not being mean; they're just moving on, and they're in a firestorm too. These athletes are trying to get transcripts in order and thinking about class starting in two weeks. It's unbelievable pressure for a kid. 

Obviously, money talks, but it's not all about money. They're all asking TWO questions, and some are asking THREE questions that are not directly money related. 

1. Will I start, and can I be a key part in the game-time strategy? Some coaches would come out and promise guarantee a starting role, which caused me to lose respect for them. I was far more impressed with coaches who said something like, "We'll give you every opportunity to be a star here, and if you work your butt off, we have plans for you that go far beyond just getting on the floor." Another part of this equation is asking how many players already on the roster are overlapping your skillset and position/role. (This is going to be a major issue with our wide receiver prospects, in my opinion, because there's a BUNCH of young WR's on the roster if they stay, plus Wingo and Mosely. Other schools are going to use this negatively against us. It's going to take a guy with supreme confidence who signs and says, "Let's do this.")  This is the primary priority for most of the guys LEAVING Texas, I'd guess. They don't have a path to the field. I have tremendous respect for Sark and his staff, because it appears that there have been no empty promises. They've been brutally honest about their chances at Texas, and over time, other players will hear about that reputation. That will bode well. Some of guys will gladly go to a lower-tier program in order to prove themselves and maybe jump back in the portal after a productive year.
2. Will this school give me the best chance to get to the League? That often means they're in one of the elite conferences with maximum exposure (although smaller market coaches will try to sell the idea that you can come be the best player in their history and that scouts can find you anywhere). MOST guys are going to see this as a tightrope to walk with the first question: They're asking, "Where can I go where I can PLAY but also be on a great team and in a great league that proves I can play with the BEST?" Incidentally, top-tier guys are more than willing to take a "pay cut" if it means this path is stronger. This is where the ultimate payday comes. My friend turned down hundreds of thousands of dollars to go to the right coach and the right fit, and he's glad he did. 
3. Can we win a championship? This question is for the elite players only. It mattered for my guy for sure, but it was also the THIRD priority by FAR. Lots of guys will choose to go one step from a championship contender to have a greater chance to play. Lots of guys will choose to go one step from a championship contender to have a greater chance to play. Again: the "bell cows" will have the luxury to choose this and know they're going to play. Most players will have to gamble their playing time to be on one of the top ten teams. 

A few other very real factors that come into play : How far will I be from my support system/ family/ home? Do I like the coach? Did I grow up hating this school, and will I feel like a traitor? Is this the school I loved growing up and I wish I would have done it to begin with? Do I have high school friends (from all-star games, etc) or teammates who I know on the team who I know I can gel with? Do I like the town? 

So now: imagine you're asking all of these questions, you're 20 years old, you have family and friends and alumni in your ear with all of their advice, and most of these well-meaning people don't know what they're talking about. Even worse, some have ulterior motives. 

It's complicated. The good news is Texas has some GREAT wins in the portal these past few years, and that was when they seemed to be far more interested in in-house development. I have no doubt Sark and CO will do just as well with this new, more aggressive portal strategy. Hook Em! 

 

Great stuff!!  Hopefully a great receiver will see having other great receivers will help them.  Cam Coleman has already had to be the best receiver and knows how hard it is when the others aren't on the same level.

[DrRush]

Great point about Coleman! He’s been there, done that with being the best player on the team but being surrounded by mediocrity. He’ll be ready for some good competition. Also, I’m betting Coleman will be willing to take less pay (if it’s in the ballpark) to be on an elite team with the right QB.

[Itsamystery]

2 hours ago, DrRush said:

Great point about Coleman! He’s been there, done that with being the best player on the team but being surrounded by mediocrity. He’ll be ready for some good competition. Also, I’m betting Coleman will be willing to take less pay (if it’s in the ballpark) to be on an elite team with the right QB.

I am curious, did the almuni network or opportunities as an alum ever come into the conversation? I look at Texas and think there are long term benefits for a athlete who stays loyal to the school.

[DrRush]

20 minutes ago, Itsamystery said:

I am curious, did the almuni network or opportunities as an alum ever come into the conversation? I look at Texas and think there are long term benefits for a athlete who stays loyal to the school.

Fair question! It's certainly something I brought up, but not a top priority for him at that season of his life. Honestly, I'm willing to bet most of these guys who are at the level we're recruiting aren't thinking about alumni bases. He had a few texts from alumni of various teams who were now professional basketball players, and that was of interest.

[ArizonaLonghorn]

Great post, thanks for the insights.

Couple of questions, if you can generalize without indicating who the player was.

How much NIL/Revenue Share did he end up with?  How was that split?  Did the school get involved with the NIL part or just hook him up with the NIL dudes?

What level of player was he?   I assume he was a starter.  Did he make  All-Conference?  All-America?  Honorable Mention anything?  Just trying to get a feel for what value coaches put on performance.

"now playing professionally" - NBA or elsewhere?

If you don't feel comfortable answering these Q's I understand.

Thanks

Edited 3 hours ago by ArizonaLonghorn

[DrRush]

1 minute ago, ArizonaLonghorn said:

Great post, thanks for the insights.

Couple of questions, if you can generalize without indicating who the player was.

How much NIL/Revenue Share did he end up with?  How was that split?  Did the school get involved with the NIL part or just hook him up with the NIL dudes?

What level of player was he?   I assume he was a starter.  Did he make  All-Conference?  All-America?  Honorable Mention anything?  Just trying to get a feel for what value coaches put on performance.

If you don't feel comfortable answering these Q's I understand.

Thanks

Thanks, ArizonaLonghorn. I don't think it would be fair to him to name him on the chat, but I'm glad to share that. Remember: this was two years ago, and the economics have changed significantly since then. My friend was all conference in the Mountain West (with very strong basketball teams) and went to an SEC school (where he did well, but didn't make an all conference team). He had probably 50 programs reach out. The top financial offer was $600,000 guaranteed - from an SEC school he did not choose. He went to a school that guaranteed him around $100K plus a great lineup of endorsement opportunities in a college town, which proved to be helpful. He couldn't stand the coach at the $600K school, and it was strange that they did so little besides wave money to actually get him. Again: my guy knew he wanted to make his living playing basketball, and wanted to be in position to do well. I think he'd so the same thing if he had to do it over. 

[ArizonaLonghorn]

Thanks!  Very illuminating.

[TrouperG]

I loved the Article DrRush.  I have degrees from UT in Economics and Mathematics and am obsessed with choice architecture and how environment influences decision making in the consumer and finance spaces.  I did try to make a similar argument about the bottom line dollar figure not being the end-all be-all in another chat and was basically called naive.  I also think we are seeing some wild-west aspects that have all fans calling foul on all other programs but it's good to see clear, concise information about a real life scenario.  But fans are going to fan and there is a lot of all-or-nothing thinking sweeping through the longhorn faithful right now.  Cheers to the moderating influence.

[DrRush]

48 minutes ago, TrouperG said:

I loved the Article DrRush.  I have degrees from UT in Economics and Mathematics and am obsessed with choice architecture and how environment influences decision making in the consumer and finance spaces.  I did try to make a similar argument about the bottom line dollar figure not being the end-all be-all in another chat and was basically called naive.  I also think we are seeing some wild-west aspects that have all fans calling foul on all other programs but it's good to see clear, concise information about a real life scenario.  But fans are going to fan and there is a lot of all-or-nothing thinking sweeping through the longhorn faithful right now.  Cheers to the moderating influence.

Thank you, TrouperG. I have a PhD in Leadership Studies, so decision making is a hot topic for me as well. It's one of the reasons this young man was at my home and not at his family's home: they're great people, but were a bit too emotionally invested to be the primary sounding board. I was honored that they let me help. Sounds like some UT players need to look you up! 

[TrouperG]

I was a NonComm in the Air Force so leadership training is near and dear to my heart.  Your doing a higher powers work sir.

[tmataya]

5 hours ago, DrRush said:

I'm a mentor to a young man who experienced the portal madness from a basketball player perspective two years ago. He's now playing professionally and felt great about his decision, but it's hard to describe how complicated this week is for these players. 

I've seen so many posts (and Tweets) that say something along the lines of, "We're Texas! Why wouldn't people just line up to play here?" OR "We're Texas! Why would anyone leave here given all they offer?" But that's not what they're thinking. I'm sure football is a little different, but I'd bet most of what my guy experienced translates. This guy was living at our home during the "visit season" and we set up a "war room" to go over every option. Here's what they go through: 

• Coaches are calling and texting constantly. I'm talking every every few minutes, the phone rings. 100's of texts. 
• Once they have a sense that the player has interest, graphics and videos start coming in. They'll send film cuts showing plays where the player would fit seamlessly into their game plan. 
• On a less technical side, some coaches would use technology to put the player in that team's jersey, on the court, in headlines, etc. Most of that was cheesy, but I'm sure it appealed to some kids who cared about uniforms. 
• The lead recruiters always ask the same question: "Besides your agent, who's helping you make this decision?" And once they get a name, that person begins receiving texts constantly and the coaches want to set up phone calls with them right away. Remember: these guys are 18-22 years old and tend to not be executive communicators. The coaches want to know what the hot buttons are. One SEC Coach called my cell phone and talked to me for an hour. Another Big East assistant coach texted me every hour on the hour until my guy said no. It's bonkers. 
• Their first priority is to get you on a Facetime or Zoom call. If it's a stud, it'll be at least the head coach. Their second priority is to fly you in ASAP. 
• Once you go in the portal, from an existing relationships standpoint, it gets lonely in a hurry. The current coaches who had been allies a day earlier go silent. They're not being mean; they're just moving on, and they're in a firestorm too. These athletes are trying to get transcripts in order and thinking about class starting in two weeks. It's unbelievable pressure for a kid. 

Obviously, money talks, but it's not all about money. They're all asking TWO questions, and some are asking THREE questions that are not directly money related. 

1. Will I start, and can I be a key part in the game-time strategy? Some coaches would come out and promise guarantee a starting role, which caused me to lose respect for them. I was far more impressed with coaches who said something like, "We'll give you every opportunity to be a star here, and if you work your butt off, we have plans for you that go far beyond just getting on the floor." Another part of this equation is asking how many players already on the roster are overlapping your skillset and position/role. (This is going to be a major issue with our wide receiver prospects, in my opinion, because there's a BUNCH of young WR's on the roster if they stay, plus Wingo and Mosely. Other schools are going to use this negatively against us. It's going to take a guy with supreme confidence who signs and says, "Let's do this.")  This is the primary priority for most of the guys LEAVING Texas, I'd guess. They don't have a path to the field. I have tremendous respect for Sark and his staff, because it appears that there have been no empty promises. They've been brutally honest about their chances at Texas, and over time, other players will hear about that reputation. That will bode well. Some of guys will gladly go to a lower-tier program in order to prove themselves and maybe jump back in the portal after a productive year.
2. Will this school give me the best chance to get to the League? That often means they're in one of the elite conferences with maximum exposure (although smaller market coaches will try to sell the idea that you can come be the best player in their history and that scouts can find you anywhere). MOST guys are going to see this as a tightrope to walk with the first question: They're asking, "Where can I go where I can PLAY but also be on a great team and in a great league that proves I can play with the BEST?" Incidentally, top-tier guys are more than willing to take a "pay cut" if it means this path is stronger. This is where the ultimate payday comes. My friend turned down hundreds of thousands of dollars to go to the right coach and the right fit, and he's glad he did. 
3. Can we win a championship? This question is for the elite players only. It mattered for my guy for sure, but it was also the THIRD priority by FAR. Lots of guys will choose to go one step from a championship contender to have a greater chance to play. Lots of guys will choose to go one step from a championship contender to have a greater chance to play. Again: the "bell cows" will have the luxury to choose this and know they're going to play. Most players will have to gamble their playing time to be on one of the top ten teams. 

A few other very real factors that come into play : How far will I be from my support system/ family/ home? Do I like the coach? Did I grow up hating this school, and will I feel like a traitor? Is this the school I loved growing up and I wish I would have done it to begin with? Do I have high school friends (from all-star games, etc) or teammates who I know on the team who I know I can gel with? Do I like the town? 

So now: imagine you're asking all of these questions, you're 20 years old, you have family and friends and alumni in your ear with all of their advice, and most of these well-meaning people don't know what they're talking about. Even worse, some have ulterior motives. 

It's complicated. The good news is Texas has some GREAT wins in the portal these past few years, and that was when they seemed to be far more interested in in-house development. I have no doubt Sark and CO will do just as well with this new, more aggressive portal strategy. Hook Em! 

 

Thanks for this perspective!

[TexasMDcoach]

Most insightful post in a while. Thx and post more please.