OTF Premium Burning Question Revisited: Did Sark and Arch get on the same page?

[Jeff Howe]

It’s time to revisit On Texas Football's “One Burning Question,” where we ask a question about the Texas Longhorns heading into a game.

Entering Saturday’s 27-24 loss to Florida, the burning question was:

Can Steve Sarkisian and Arch Manning get on the same page?

They didn’t. It was bad enough that Sarkisian must at least entertain a quarterback change.

Sarkisian is ultimately to blame for the Texas (4-2, 1-2 SEC) offense woefully underperforming.

He assembled a roster he believed could execute his offense at a championship level. After Saturday’s loss to the Gators, the Longhorns rank among the worst offenses in the country in total offense (93rd), yards per play (tied for 104th), rushing offense (102nd), 10-yard plays from scrimmage (tied for 81st) and 20-yard plays from scrimmage (tied for 126th).

Nevertheless, things came to a head in Sarkisian’s 19th consecutive game with Manning as his starting quarterback. Another week of blown opportunities, missed assignments, poor decision-making and Manning’s catastrophic mistakes overshadowing his positive plays might force Sarkisian to make a move that seemed unfathomable a few weeks ago.

Sarkisian had hot routes to help Manning handle blitzes. He simplified his quarterback’s reads. There were run-pass options where Manning could've used his legs to jumpstart the offense.

Manning, however, didn’t execute enough of those things to keep the offense from another feast-or-famine outing. Whether Manning isn’t confident enough to pull the trigger, can’t process what’s unfolding in front of him or is locked onto a predetermined read at all times, Sarkisian can no longer field an offense in which the starting quarterback needs training wheels.

Manning’s inability to get rid of the football on time cost the offense time and again against Florida, most notably on Myles Graham’s strip-sack that ended Texas’ comeback bid. Manning appeared to have Emmett Mosley V open on an out route, but he held the ball too long and succumbed to pressure, for the fifth and final time (the Longhorns have allowed 17 sacks in three games and are tied for 117th in FBS by allowing 2.83 sacks per game), resulting in a game-clinching turnover.

On second-and-3 from the Gators’ 16-yard line in the second quarter, Manning appeared to miss a pull read on a run-pass option. Had he pulled the ball instead of handing it off to Hollywood Smothers for a 4-yard loss, Manning could’ve either run for the first down or flipped the ball to Nick Townsend, who was open after leaking into the flat and had a chance to score.

Instead of taking a two-touchdown lead, Texas settled for a field goal.

Manning doesn’t appear capable of getting the offense out of a bad play (multiple rushing attempts into an outnumbered box and waves of unblocked defenders coming free on blitzes) or changing protection with a pre-snap check at the line of scrimmage. He’s incapable of making those decisions or doesn’t have Sarkisian’s trust to do so, either of which would be a serious indictment of Manning’s development (or lack thereof).

There’s no question now that Manning has regressed. Attributes that were his strengths (pocket awareness chief among them) have become weaknesses that are holding the offense back.

Whether Manning’s confidence has eroded to the point that he can’t regain or rebuild it is a legitimate concern.

Is he broken?

Can he fix what’s ailing him?

If he does, will it happen before the house of cards collapses?

The Sarkisian-Manning era was on a championship trajectory after last month’s comeback win over Ohio State.

Five weeks later, Sarkisian might be closer to pulling the plug and starting anew than he is to riding it out, waiting for Manning to get back on track.

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[Jeff Howe]

I didn't know where else to put this, so I'll mention it here: In my opinion, the offensive line's performance was the worst of the season.

Too many missed assignments, poor communication and too many instances of guys losing one-on-one battles decisively in high-leverage situations. It's more than just guys getting beat. Sometimes, when I'm watching the All-22 copy, I can't tell who missed an assignment because the whole group looks out of sorts.

[Jeff Howe]

To the point of the article, after rewatching the game and breaking things down as best as I could, that might be the worst I've seen Arch look. Sark isn't off the hook by any stretch (and neither is the offensive line), but it was indefensible.

Calling for a quarterback change is usually a last resort for me and I'm closer to that point than I should be.

[MBHORNSFAN]

Give Lacy a shot this week. 

[Jeff Howe]

This is the RPO I mentioned.

If it's a predetermined give, it's a terrible call. If it's a true read, it's a terrible decision:

 

[Clifton]

Good write up Jeff. 
 

I feel for you guys for basically having to write “why does this offense suck?” in various ways since the Ohio State win. 
 

I said it right after the OU loss that it feels like the patience has broken in even the most rationale fans. 
 

I hope that there’s this miraculous turnaround, but this feels closer to a discussion of the end of the season being a coach search than a playoff push. 
 

What a bummer. 

[Nate C]

Bad offensive line play hurts my soul more than anything. A good offensive line fixes a lot of issues but this one is just terrible. Arch is obviously struggling badly but this line has done nothing to help him. I’m not sure what all Sark can do at this point. QB can’t hit the short ones. Lineman can’t block for the long ones. No one communicates at the LOS. head scratcher 

[ImDirtydan01]

I hate to say this, but was Manning ever THAT good? I’m not saying he was ever that bad. But I watched a clip from a high school game of his where he was being chased down and seemingly trying to scan the field, but of course that was at the 3A or 4A level in Louisiana, so he could easily outrun the defense. But I don’t want to just say he was always overrated to begin with, because we saw glimpses of how good he can be in 2024, and at the end of last year, he was pretty good. That’s why I’m at a crossroads of whether the criticisms of him were right to a degree all along or if this is Sark’s doing. Obviously, it is to some degree because we’ve seen two five-star quarterbacks year over year become a shell of what they were to begin with. 

I don’t want to fully cut ties with Sark yet, but I’m just about there as it is. I want the best for Arch, even if it’s not at Texas. But is it possible we’re seeing the same thing that Weigman went through? He looked horrible at A&M, and now he actually looks good with a competent OC that tailored the offense to his specific skillset instead of trying to make him something he’s not. Yes, it’s in the Big 12, but with the way Arch is playing, he would be getting clobbered in that conference as well. 

I feel like the answer is somewhat in-between. Arch has issues of his own and the way Sark has coached him. But I’d hate to think he’d go somewhere else and look like a good game manager to a very, very good quarterback. Because if he goes somewhere else and balls out, I’d really hate to still be stuck with Sark. That would be the biggest red flag on Sark’s development for quarterbacks at Texas, if there already isn’t one, of course. 
 

Thoughts and opinions on this question will be greatly appreciated @Gerry Hamilton. @Jeff Howe

Edited 1 hour ago by ImDirtydan01
Correction

[Jeff Howe]

Just now, Clifton said:

Good write up Jeff. 
 

I feel for you guys for basically having to write “why does this offense suck?” in various ways since the Ohio State win. 
 

I said it right after the OU loss that it feels like the patience has broken in even the most rationale fans. 
 

I hope that there’s this miraculous turnaround, but this feels closer to a discussion of the end of the season being a coach search than a playoff push. 
 

What a bummer. 

It's getting worse every week.

There's no excuse for the offense to be this bad, much less regress every week.

[Jeff Howe]

3 minutes ago, Nate C said:

Bad offensive line play hurts my soul more than anything. A good offensive line fixes a lot of issues but this one is just terrible. Arch is obviously struggling badly but this line has done nothing to help him. I’m not sure what all Sark can do at this point. QB can’t hit the short ones. Lineman can’t block for the long ones. No one communicates at the LOS. head scratcher 

The worst part is, from what I see, it's more mental than physical. When they get vertical and get fitted up on defenders, they can move people. But it's so disjointed that it rarely happens without someone blowing an assignment. 

[HornsUpThumbsDown]

15 minutes ago, Jeff Howe said:

I didn't know where else to put this, so I'll mention it here: In my opinion, the offensive line's performance was the worst of the season.

Too many missed assignments, poor communication and too many instances of guys losing one-on-one battles decisively in high-leverage situations. It's more than just guys getting beat. Sometimes, when I'm watching the All-22 copy, I can't tell who missed an assignment because the whole group looks out of sorts.

Hard to believe…. But then again it’s not I go back three years, maybe 4 where I posted Texas has continual, guard, center, guard issues 

[Nate C]

Just now, Jeff Howe said:

The worst part is, from what I see, it's more mental than physical. When they get vertical and get fitted up on defenders, they can move people. But it's so disjointed that it rarely happens without someone blowing an assignment. 

Mental for sure, but might push back on the can move people part. OU and Florida physically dominated us at times when we needed to move on them. Our guys get bull rushed pretty easily. short yardage has been a nightmare for us. We lack the physicality and athleticism that Florida and OU outmatched us with. Watching the tight has been brutal the last two weeks.

[HornsUpThumbsDown]

1 minute ago, HornsUpThumbsDown said:

Hard to believe…. But then again it’s not I go back three years, maybe 4 where I posted Texas has continual, guard, center, guard issues 

And some tackle, including Goosby who should have gone to the NFL. Saw some plays yesterday where he got put on his back 

[Jeff Howe]

5 minutes ago, ImDirtydan01 said:

I hate to say this, but was Manning ever THAT good? I’m not saying he was ever that bad. But I watched a clip from a high school game of his where he was being chased down and seemingly trying to scan the field, but of course that was at the 3A or 4A level in Louisiana, so he could easily outrun the defense. But I don’t want to just say he was always overrated to begin with, because we saw glimpses of how good he can be in 2024, and at the end of last year, he was pretty good. That’s why I’m at a crossroads of whether the criticisms of him were right to a degree all along or if this is Sark’s doing. Obviously, it is to some degree because we’ve seen two five-star quarterbacks year over year become a shell of what they were to begin with. 

I don’t want to fully cut ties with Sark yet, but I’m just about there as it is. I want the best for Arch, even if it’s not at Texas. But is it possible we’re seeing the same thing that Weigman went through? He looked horrible at A&M, and now he actually looks good with a competent OC that tailored the offense to his specific skillset instead of trying to make him something he’s not. Yes, it’s in the Big 12, but with the way Arch is playing, he would be getting clobbered in that conference as well. 

I feel like the answer is somewhat in-between. Arch has issues of his own and the way Sark has coached him. But I’d hate to think he’d go somewhere else and look like a good game manager to a very, very good quarterback. Because if he goes somewhere else and balls out, I’d really hate to still be stuck with Sark. That would be the biggest red flag on Sark’s development for quarterbacks at Texas, if there already isn’t one, of course. 
 

Thoughts and opinions on this question will be greatly appreciated @Gerry Hamilton. @Jeff Howe

You laid out the situation pretty well. I don't think Sark has done right by Arch, but Arch hasn't done himself any favors lately.

Arch has something. I think he was more of a raw athlete and a good football player trying to figure out how to be a quarterback, as opposed to a finished product, than anyone (myself included) expected. Patience was going to be required with Arch, but he's getting worse. This is close to Garrett Gilbert in 2010. The train is so far down the tracks that you can't get it back.

Arch hasn't improved from last season and he's regressed. Sark is responsible for things getting to this point because he's the head coach and in charge of the offense, but he can only do so much to help Arch. The whole situation feels closer to being irreparably broken than it does to getting fixed.

[Jeff Howe]

5 minutes ago, Nate C said:

Mental for sure, but might push back on the can move people part. OU and Florida physically dominated us at times when we needed to move on them. Our guys get bull rushed pretty easily. short yardage has been a nightmare for us. We lack the physicality and athleticism that Florida and OU outmatched us with. Watching the tight has been brutal the last two weeks.

Some of that is scheme and you're not going to win all of your battles. I think Sark needs to stick with things this group can execute, even if it means less variety in blocking schemes.

I think the lost battles are magnified because they're happening in critical situations.

[Jbro52]

I remember in fall camp Sark said he would like to see Arch make more checks and Arch pretty much said he’s gonna run the play that’s called not something your want your qb or a manning saying 

[MBHORNSFAN]

Seems Sark really has no choice but to make a change at this point. 

[Jeff Howe]

4 minutes ago, Jbro52 said:

I remember in fall camp Sark said he would like to see Arch make more checks and Arch pretty much said he’s gonna run the play that’s called not something your want your qb or a manning saying 

It's beyond the name on the back of his jersey. These are rudimentary things a quarterback with his level of experience should be able to diagnose pre-snap. Getting the offense out of bad plays was one of Quinn's best qualities as a quarterback.

[Jeff Howe]

Just now, MBHORNSFAN said:

Seems Sark really has no choice but to make a change at this point. 

Oh, he has a choice. Personally, I don't trust him to make it.

We'll see. I'm not holding my breath.

[MBHORNSFAN]

4 minutes ago, Jeff Howe said:

Oh, he has a choice. Personally, I don't trust him to make it.

We'll see. I'm not holding my breath.

 

Then he should be popped immediately.  And if not he will be soon enough then. 

[akhookem]

Sark has to decide if he’s willing to risk his job riding it out with Manning. If he sticks with Arch and this team and roster goes anywhere between 6-6 and 8-4, I personally say he needs to be gone.

[Jeff Howe]

1 minute ago, MBHORNSFAN said:

 

Then he should be popped immediately.  And if not he will be soon enough then. 

It's a big few weeks for Sark's future, for sure. I've wrapped my head around the fact that these are rational, real conversations.

[MBHORNSFAN]

Just now, Jeff Howe said:

It's a big few weeks for Sark's future, for sure. I've wrapped my head around the fact that these are rational, real conversations.

 

I see CFB a lot like the NFL now. ( wrong or right that is a discussion later)  but with that said coaches are gonna get popped sooner under this new era now.  

[Nate C]

4 minutes ago, Jeff Howe said:

It's a big few weeks for Sark's future, for sure. I've wrapped my head around the fact that these are rational, real conversations.

Pete Carrol Interim HC? lol 👀

[akhookem]

1 minute ago, Jeff Howe said:

It's a big few weeks for Sark's future, for sure. I've wrapped my head around the fact that these are rational, real conversations.

I’m honestly done with Sark. I just don’t think he has it to elevate Texas to being a National Champion. His entire tenure has been building up for this season. 2nd year Arch, big time portal additions, revamped OL, best pass rusher in the country. And you’re 4-2, should be 3-3 if Ohio State makes a field goal. And now in year 6 we’re seeing 2nd half shades of year 1 Sarks inability to score.

He himself has admitted that he “doesn’t know” what the issue is on offense. He used PK as a scapegoat, while sticking with his buddies as OL and Special Teams coach that are much bigger issues than PK was. We all said “if not now, when?” And here we are. If not now, NEVER. Stop wasting seasons on Sark.