By the Numbers: Texas and the Transfer Portal

[PaytonOTF]

 

Hey this is Payton, one of the interns again, I wanted to take a deeper look into the roster makeup by recruiting class and transfers and was able to find some intriguing data. Here are two new By the Numbers graphics on roster makeup from the past few years, and how Texas’ transfer number compares nationally.

The first breaks down who has taken Texas's snaps by signing class from 2023 to 2026, and shows transfers jumping from 16% last season to 41% this season. The second puts that 41% next to the AP top 12 and every SEC team, where Texas lands 15th of 23.

I started by charting how many plays each Texas recruiting class gets as freshmen, sophomores, juniors and seniors. The 2025 class's numbers stood out, so I looked at where those snaps were going. The answer was transfers, who now take more snaps than the two biggest signing classes combined.

That raised the next question: is 41% a lot? So I ran the same numbers for the AP top 12 and every SEC team. UCLA, Arkansas and Ole Miss are above 70%, while Georgia and Notre Dame are around 12%. Four of the AP top five are at 29% or lower.

Do you think this is rise of transfer numbers at Texas is a bad thing? Should they continue to be above that magic 29% number?

Edited 11 hours ago by PaytonOTF

[Bobby Burton]

Good stuff, Payton.

Texas remains a relatively homegrown team comparatively. 12th in the SEC in transfer snaps. 

[Atxdubstep]

Very interesting! Great graphic as well. I think they have done a good job of keeping balance in the transfer portal. I wonder what are the numbers of 4 and 5 stars that have transferred out compared to the rest of the NCAA. 

[CJ Vogel]

Interesting stuff on the transfers.

Nice post Payton!

[Battrayal]

This is good stuff! What stands out to me is how important the '23 class was last year to the team. We lost a lot of great talent to the league that year (love seeing Manny ball out for my bears every week. Initially thought he needed to come back and be a 1st rounder but turns out he was more than ready)

 

I think the 30-40% each year is a good sweet spot. Depending on where your holes are, development timelines, how our recruiting classes go, etc.

[BurntOrangeHorn]

Interesting!  Could the portal player's snaps per game be indexed to the percentage of portal  top level players on their respective team rank??

🤘🏻🤘🏼🤘🤘🏽🤘🏾🤘🏿

 

Edited 10 hours ago by BurntOrangeHorn

[CHorn427]

It seems UCLA is this year’s Indiana- I don’t think they’ll win the title though 

[HonkEm]

WTG Payton

[Hank South]

Great work Payton! 

[Etlonghorn]

Interesting information.  Instant analysis points to the fact that we do a pretty good job of developing the talent we recruit out of HS.  It’s also interesting that more transfer production doesn’t necessarily translate to success.  At first glance, it looks like the lower the % of transfers playing, the higher the average performance / ranking for the schools. 

Edited 7 hours ago by Etlonghorn