Horn95 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 For reference this is Harvey about the time out from landfall. Buckle up, folks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horn95 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Here’s a good side-by-side view. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bierce Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 6 minutes ago, Horn95 said: Here’s a good side-by-side view. While gulf waters are near the temperature they were in late August, 2017, forecasters still think rapid intensification is unlikely for the next 24 hours due to southerly shear and dry air on the southwest side of Beryl. From 10 am tomorrow until landfall will be the time for intensification, so the faster Beryl gets here, the better. Unfortunately Beryl has slowed its rate of travel since leaving the Yucatan. HMON and HWRF 12z runs have Beryl making landfall at Corpus between 4 and 7 am on July 8, so they (particularly HWRF) are getting it here quicker than they predicted 24 hours ago, but they aren't lowering the intensity from their last 3 runs. They're just bringing it to the coast a little farther south. Gulf is very warm. I won't be surprised if Beryl once again gets stronger than models predict, particularly if landfall occurs later on Monday. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bierce Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 NHC 4 pm CDT advisory has Beryl back on a Port Lavaca track. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bierce Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 18z HMON, HWRF, HAFS-A models are nearly uniform in showing a strong category 1 hurricane landfall around 4 am between Port Aransas and Matagorda Bay. HAFS-B differs only in landfall being a little later. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bierce Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 (edited) 10 pm cdt NHC advisory is in. Storm still moving at 13 mph. Port O'Connor is now projected ground zero in the very early hours of July 8. Category 1. Error at 36 hours is 50-60 miles and +/- one category. The greater warning embedded in the forecast says: In fact, the hurricane regional models HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, and HMON all show only gradual strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, followed by significant intensification just hours before Beryl makes landfall. Based on the guidance and large-scale factors, there is a chance of rapid intensification if Beryl becomes better vertically aligned, and it is possible that it strengthens more between the 24- and 36-h predictions. Edited July 7 by bierce 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zachery Nelson Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Prayers for everyone , anyone near magnolia / Hockley / Tomball need anything give me a shout here or on any of my socials ZfromTheT. may god keep y’all all safe 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neil Leininger Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 I just hope that when it makes landfall it continues to haul ass. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOrangeMD Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Stay Safe Matagorda Bay and Port Lavaca. We are with you, and we are on the ready to come help! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bierce Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 4 am CDT NHC advisory projected a more easterly track than before with the center of landfall on the east side of Matagorda Bay. Next advisory in half an hour. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmk4pres Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 My dad put in the "in-home" generator a couple of months ago and is just itching to use it in Victoria. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bierce Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 10 am NHC advisory shows expected center of landfall between Palacios and Matagorda. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zachery Nelson Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Gonna come right thru where I live if it stays on track now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bierce Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Reporter on Surfside beach describing being in a house built up on 10 foot wood pilings when 90 mph winds hit. "It can get kind of gnarly." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longhornlove Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 12 hours ago, Zachery Nelson said: Prayers for everyone , anyone near magnolia / Hockley / Tomball need anything give me a shout here or on any of my socials ZfromTheT. may god keep y’all all safe I'm in Tomball, not too worried as long as she doesn't intensify much. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harveycmd Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Gerry, you back home before it hits? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bierce Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 12z HMON, HWRF, and both HAFS agree on Matagorda Bay as landfall center. HWRF has later landfall with category 2 winds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zachery Nelson Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 1 hour ago, Longhornlove said: I'm in Tomball, not too worried as long as she doesn't intensify much. We will be in timbergreen staying at my moms while they’re out of town Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerry K Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Beryl hasn’t intensified rapidly like Harvey due to the dry air on the south and east sides of the storm getting pulled into the storm. I am hearing it should increase between this afternoon and landfall some. Possibly even as a low cat 2. Hope all that are affected by this storm are safe and make a fast, full recovery. Hurricanes suck! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bierce Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 (edited) 4pm cdt NHC advisory is much the same. Approaching Matagorda with max winds 85 at 4 am with eye still an hour or two off shore. Edited July 7 by bierce Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FatherofMinky Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Port Lavaca, TX not too bad here yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bierce Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 18z runs of HMON, HWRF, and HAFS-A and -B are largely unchanged from the 12z runs. HWRF still indicating a later and more powerful landfall than the others. All put landfall around Matagorda between 1 am and 4 am. 18z GFS run has brought it into line with the rest on intensity. It had been the outlier for days by predicting far less wind speed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
horns96 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Good luck to all the Gulf Coast and ETX folks 🤘 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bierce Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Last NHC discussion before landfall 000 WTNT42 KNHC 080254 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Radar and satellite trends suggest Beryl is becoming better organized tonight. Deep convection has increased near the center, with new convective elements emerging around the northern and southern portions of the circulation. Tail Doppler Radar data from the NOAA aircraft suggest the radius of maximum wind has contracted a bit, and the vortex has become more vertically aligned. However, the eyewall is open to the west, where there is still some evidence of dry air in the circulation. The intensity was raised to 60 kt based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight-level wind data (66 kt at 700 mb), and the most recent aircraft pass through the northeast quadrant still supports the 60-kt intensity for this advisory. The minimum pressure has continued to slowly fall, with the latest dropsonde data supporting 986 mb. The environmental and oceanic conditions remain quite favorable for intensification while Beryl approaches the Texas coast overnight. The recent structural changes noted above are expected to allow Beryl to re-strengthen into a hurricane overnight, and the potential for significant intensification leading up to landfall is still indicated by some of the regional hurricane guidance, particularly the HWRF and HMON. At this point, time is the greatest limiting factor as the storm is less than 12 h from landfall. While the 12-h forecast point shows a 65-kt hurricane inland over Texas, the peak intensity is expected between now and the 12-h forecast point, and is thus not explicitly shown in this forecast. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected while the system moves farther inland. The long-term motion of Beryl is north-northwestward at about 9 kt, but recent radar and aircraft fixes have shown a motion just east of due north. A northward motion overnight is expected to bring the center of Beryl inland along the middle Texas coast roughly between Matagorda Bay and Freeport early on Monday morning. The short-term NHC track forecast is just slightly east of the previous one. After landfall, Beryl is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough while transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should follow any advice given by local officials and follow evacuation orders. 2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to portions of the Texas coast early Monday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Mesquite Bay to San Luis Pass. 3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected tonight through Monday night across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also expected. 4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 27.6N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 29.2N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0000Z 31.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1200Z 33.7N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0000Z 36.0N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 10/1200Z 38.4N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 11/0000Z 40.4N 84.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Blake Munroe Posted July 8 Moderators Share Posted July 8 Hope all of you in the path are doing well this morning. Thinking of you all. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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