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A scenario where the Big12 could miss the CFP


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1. BYU loses one of their final games (say @ ASU)

2. #2 Big12 team upsets BYU in the championship game (maybe Colorado?)

3. Army wins out (including win over ND)

4. Boise State wins out

In this scenario, it’s conceivable that Army and BSU could rank higher in the CFP than the Big12 champs and the Big12 would lose their autobid.

However, it be highly controversial and against media interests to exclude Colorado if they win out and win the Big12 championship. However, if the Big12 champ is someone other than Colorado  (having won out) or one loss BYU, I could see it. 
 

I’m rooting for it! 

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46 minutes ago, Texas fan in Georgia said:

The B12 champion will not lose a spot. Doesn’t matter if they was undefeated or had 3 losses. The winner of each conference is in regardless

 

That isn't what the NCAA website says.  It says the five highest ranked conference champions get auto bids with the 4 highest ranked conference champions seeded 1-4.  It doesn't specify conferences. 

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2024-08-29/how-12-team-college-football-playoff-will-work-teams-schedule-bids

So what if Boise State and Army finish the season ranked above the Big 12 champ or the ACC champ?  Wouldn't those conferences then need to win at-large bid? 

Edited by bierce
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1 hour ago, CHorn427 said:

1. BYU loses one of their final games (say @ ASU)

2. #2 Big12 team upsets BYU in the championship game (maybe Colorado?)

3. Army wins out (including win over ND)

4. Boise State wins out

In this scenario, it’s conceivable that Army and BSU could rank higher in the CFP than the Big12 champs and the Big12 would lose their autobid.

However, it be highly controversial and against media interests to exclude Colorado if they win out and win the Big12 championship. However, if the Big12 champ is someone other than Colorado  (having won out) or one loss BYU, I could see it. 
 

I’m rooting for it! 

Nope, the Big 12, SEC, ACC, B10 and best Group of 5 are warranty a spot CFP. 

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Maybe this is why Brett Yormark dispatches the Kevin Mar ref crew to the most critical Big 12 games down the stretch.  Kevin Mar is an insurance policy against the Big 12 getting left out of CFB Playoffs and the paycheck that goes with it.

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2 hours ago, GoHorns1 said:

Nope, the Big 12, SEC, ACC, B10 and best Group of 5 are warranty a spot CFP. 

Not true.  The only guarantee is that the five highest ranked conference champions will get bids.  One can reasonably expect the Big 12 champ to be ranked higher than the MWC or AAC or Sunbelt champ in most seasons, but there could be a season in which that doesn't happen.

https://www.si.com/college-football/big-ten-sec-take-next-step-toward-control-over-college-football

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4 minutes ago, bierce said:

Not true.  The only guarantee is that the five highest ranked conference champions will get bids.  One can reasonably expect the Big 12 champ to be ranked higher than the MWC or AAC or Sunbelt champ in most seasons, but there could be a season in which that doesn't happen.

https://www.si.com/college-football/big-ten-sec-take-next-step-toward-control-over-college-football

I stand corrected.

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On 11/10/2024 at 6:31 PM, John F. said:

Possible but incredibly unlikely.
 

This post made me think about the Big 12 more than I have since the championship game. God do I not miss caring about Iowa State or whatever. 

Really the only unlikely domino that needs to fall is Army beating ND. BYU could easily lose @ ASU and CU could even easily lose vs Kansas. 
 

IF Army beats ND, they’ll have a better quality win compared to the Big12 champion regardless of what else happens. 

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Y'all are talking about the wrong conference, the ACC is the conference that is in big time trouble. Boise is ranked between Miami and SMU. The Big 12 is clearly ahead of the ACC and has been for the past 10 years in spite of Clemson's 2 championships. Big 12 is closer to getting two teams than not making it at all. 

Very real chance that 12-1 BYU makes it as an at large, especially if SMU wins the ACC. Then add 11-2 champion Colorado.

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