Men's basketball games of note--week of 1/27-31

[bierce]

ASU won 70-68 by expanding rotation to 8 players by getting freshman Trevor Best, he of 3 minutes all year, on the floor to commit a turnover and a foul. 

But a win is win. 

Seriously, ASU did get a lot of time and production from Ali tonight, so it went 7 deep. 

Staying alive.

[bierce]

Pitt beat UNC by 8.  UNC is now 1-8 in q1 games. 

[bierce]

Baylor-BYU going to OT.  Possessions/shooting % didn't show a significant disparity in regulation.

[bierce]

Agroids outrebounded dirt burglars 47-18.  It didn't matter that OU shot 45+% from three. 

You just can't reasonably expect to win basketball games in which you give your opponent a dozen more shots at the basket and 5 more possessions that end in free throws.

[bierce]

SEC network announcers sick about how long it takes to finish the games.

Time to junk the review system. 

Or time to buy more beer.

One or the other.

But I bet most arenas shut down beer sales with x number of minutes left in the game, so it's only the one.

 

[Jack Lala]

7 hours ago, bierce said:

SEC network announcers sick about how long it takes to finish the games.

Time to junk the review system. 

Or time to buy more beer.

One or the other.

But I bet most arenas shut down beer sales with x number of minutes left in the game, so it's only the one.

 

I timed a game about a week ago. The last 4 minutes took almost 30 minutes because of all the stupid reviews. 

[tylerlindsey2111]

@Jordan91 @bierce fake UT has had their warts come to the light lately.

[BobInHouston]

10 hours ago, bierce said:

SEC network Isick about how long it takes to finish the games.

Time to junk the review system. 

Or time to buy more beer.

One or the other.

But I bet most arenas shut down beer sales with x number of minutes left in the game, so it's only the one.

 

I've noticed that these games regularly last 2:15-2:20. As a conference, it just lasts longer.

[BobInHouston]

25 minutes ago, tylerlindsey2111 said:

@Jordan91 @bierce fake UT has had their warts come to the light lately.

If you're defense-oriented, you might have recruited good shooters, but you tire them out on the defensive end. Beard has the same issue.

But this was a tough turnaround for Tennessee, playing Auburn and then coming home to Kentucky.

Texas wins tonight, they're tied with Tennessee (and Ole Miss, for that matter).

[tylerlindsey2111]

@BobInHouston Look at Tennessee's roster construct last year, and look at it this year. What is the difference? 

[BobInHouston]

11 minutes ago, tylerlindsey2111 said:

@BobInHouston Look at Tennessee's roster construct last year, and look at it this year. What is the difference? 

You'll have to help me out a little.

[tylerlindsey2111]

@BobInHouston I agree, they have okay shooters and I agree with your premise. My overall point is they have a construct issue this year that is predominantly due to the fact they lost a 23+ ppg lottery guy that they could not replace. So it creates a trickle down effect for the other guys, and with more and more tape to scout of them, their issues and blemishes in their own skill sets have become apparent.

While similar, Beard just cannot get that level of player to Ole Miss as of now. Which is why most games they win are rock fights.

[BobInHouston]

9 minutes ago, tylerlindsey2111 said:

@BobInHouston I agree, they have okay shooters and I agree with your premise. My overall point is they have a construct issue this year that is predominantly due to the fact they lost a 23+ ppg lottery guy that they could not replace. So it creates a trickle down effect for the other guys, and with more and more tape to scout of them, their issues and blemishes in their own skill sets have become apparent.

While similar, Beard just cannot get that level of player to Ole Miss as of now. Which is why most games they win are rock fights.

Yeah, I was going to go with, lost a NPOY-level guy. Lanier is good but not quite to Knecht's quality. But the roster is still solid.

Last night, they couldn't hit their threes, and in the second half they actively looked for threes over twos. Cost them the game IMO. Were they a step slow on defense? Probably. The game they played Saturday probably will be the most physical, defense-oriented game this year (unless they repeat it in the SEC tournament).

Edit: I just looked this up. They took 45 threes. In the handshake line, Mark Pope said, "Too many threes, Rick."

Edited Wednesday at 03:17 PM by BobInHouston

[BobInHouston]

Texas breaks through in the Bracket Matrix to a 10 seed.

[bierce]

Lots of games today, but only one could really move the needle for Texas, and that is our game in Oxford.  If we win, then we shoot way up the seed list.  A loss won't hurt us much unless it is of a truly catastrophic variety.

Mississippi has been whipped on the boards in the last 3 games, losing all of them.  Beard made only a passing mention after the Missouri game of their rebounding problems.  He was more concerned with "lack of aggression" leading to Mississippi shooting half as many free throws as the opponents.  We've been crappy at rebounding, so maybe we can hope Mississippi will respond to Beard by getting overly aggressive to commit a ton of fouls, and we can bury them with free throws.  And we need Kaluma back or someone to step up in a big way in rebounding.  Shedrick was very good at it in the second half against A&M, but we need whole games.

Mississippi has the best defensive efficiency in conference play, making this the fourth game against the top 4 and sixth game against the top half of the conference and sixth game in conference play against teams in the top 20 nationally.  Missouri, btw, is 9th in conference play. 

Other SEC games include Auburn at LSU.  Auburn is 3-0 on the road in conference, but it won those games by a combined 10 points and the opponents are a combined 7-17 in conference.  To be fair, it didn't have Broome when it went to Athens.  Broome's limited minutes against Tennessee?  Just 33 of them.

Alabama @ Mississippi State

Mississippi State's only home loss was in a game in which Kentucky shot more 3s than 2s and hit 50% of them.  Alabama doesn't have that kind of attack.  But Alabama has a defense.  Not sure Kentucky does. 

 

 

[tylerlindsey2111]

There is positivity also to note in terms of our matchup against an elite defense, such as Ole Miss. You know what the one thing great defense cannot beat is?

[bierce]

A few other games to mention

Houston (2) @ WVU (41)

WVU got off to a great start, winning a pair of OT games in the Bahamas against Gonzaga and Arizona, and it won in Lawrence in the conference opener and beat Iowa State in Morgantown.  That's 4 really impressive wins, but it has struggled in conference other than the wins over KU and ISU, most recently losing @ 102 KSU and at home to 58 ASU.  Throw in a 24 point beatdown @ Pitt in November and Arizona getting payback in the form of a 19 win in Morgantown, and you see why WVU isn't assured a bid by any means.  One bracketazonker has WVU as a 5 seed.  Another has it as an 11 seed.  It has an easy schedule remaining with only 5 more q1 games, and the only impact games after tonight will be @ Baylor and @ Tech.

Tucker DeVries hasn't played since early December, and the WVU offense has tanked.  Jayden Stone has also been out all year, but I don't know how much he could help at this level.

North Texas (45) @ Wichita State (163)

This isn't Gregg Marshall's WSU program.  UNT really can't afford any losses before playing Memphis in the AAC final.  UNT has only 3 q2 games left, all road games against teams 122-133, and it has no games left against teams in the NET top 120, so it gets almost nothing for each win and gets harshly punished for each loss.  It's not exactly fair, but that's the way it is. 

Xavier (54) @ Creighton (39)

Creighton split with Marquette and St. John's and is a game out of first in the BE because it suffered a bad loss 81-57 @ Georgetown.  That was one of three losses that caused it to drop 13-18 spots in Pomeroy each time (by 11 at home vs. Nebraska, by 18 to SDSU on a neutral floor).   Xavier mostly went backward in OOC and is 1-3 against St. John's and Marquette, but one loss was in OT and one was in a one possession game.  It still gets included in a bracket or two, and it has played very well of late, beating UConn, taking St. John's to OT, and winning @ Marquette in its last 3 games. 

Cal (100 something) @ SMU (43)

I'm not buying SMU.  It hasn't beaten anyone better than LSU, is 0-4 in q1 games and might not get a chance to play another q1 game.

St. Mary's (24, why?) @ Santa Clara (59)

St. Mary's is 0-0 in q1 games.  To be fair, it is 2-3 in games that almost but don't quite get to q1.  It is about to play 5 q1 games in a row if USF stays in the top 75.  So we will finally learn what St. Mary's is made of this year.

 

[bierce]

2 minutes ago, tylerlindsey2111 said:

There is positivity also to note in terms of our matchup against an elite defense, such as Ole Miss. You know what the one thing great defense cannot beat is?

Yeah, the over/under.

[tylerlindsey2111]

1 minute ago, bierce said:

Yeah, the over/under.

Close. Great, 1v1 iso shot making!

Obviously, not ideal to base your team around on a night in and night out basis, as we have discussed. But in a one game sample size, it provides you a great chance to win a game in which the other team, primarily great defensive teams, also executes and plays well.

[bierce]

22 minutes ago, tylerlindsey2111 said:

Close. Great, 1v1 iso shot making!

Obviously, not ideal to base your team around on a night in and night out basis, as we have discussed. But in a one game sample size, it provides you a great chance to win a game in which the other team, primarily great defensive teams, also executes and plays well.

I was joking, of course.

I would add that Mark Adams's defenses can still make life difficult for iso shooters.  Each defender knows his teammates will react quickly to someone who gets by him, so he can play tighter on perimeter shooters.  Teams may wind up taking a lot of threes, but they don't make many of them. 

But yeah, on nights the bombs are falling, there's not a lot anyone can do to stop them. 

[Neil Leininger]

Feels like a split this week @Ole Miss and @LSU would keep the momentum from last week's 2-0 record at home against two ranked teams.

[tylerlindsey2111]

1 hour ago, bierce said:

I was joking, of course.

I would add that Mark Adams's defenses can still make life difficult for iso shooters.  Each defender knows his teammates will react quickly to someone who gets by him, so he can play tighter on perimeter shooters.  Teams may wind up taking a lot of threes, but they don't make many of them. 

But yeah, on nights the bombs are falling, there's not a lot anyone can do to stop them. 

Adams, and subsequently Beard, started the trend of encouraging rotation early as a part of their defense. Before then, defense generally tried to avoid rotation until they had to because that is how offense gets the dominoes falling. By trying to make the offense put you into a forced rotation, you take the big advantage and neutralize it (hypothetically, of course). Combine that with their big emphasis on no middle, and it got ugly for offenses. What helps Texas, tonight, is the length (Tre, Mark and Kaluma, specifically) and spots their iso guys for the most part are good at. Can make early rotations and doubling very easy to see coming.

Once again, relying on a high percentage of tough shot making is not advantageous for anyone. But it does give some hope for them tonight, with no real strategic adjustments or the other team playing bad necessary.

[bierce]

I guess I should complete the picture of bubble impacting games with Nevada (77) @ Boise State (52).

MWC profiles much like it did last year.  NET rankings are a little worse across the board, but the OOC results are very similar.  San Diego State had the only really big win OOC, and it is again taking some lumps in conference play.  A few other teams have two or more wins OOC against Pomeroy 40-100 types.  Then a team like Colorado State, which did nothing OOC, goes on a run to shoot up the conference standings.  St. Mary's must have gotten tired of losing 2 games per year to MWC teams, so it scheduled only two games against them this year.  Lost both, so that didn't work. 

So here's my question.  What will the committee do this year if 5 or 6 MWC teams finish in the top 50 NET?  Granted, Nevada and Colorado State have a lot of ground to make up to get there, but let's say Colorado State stays hot, finishes with the sweep over Nevada and gets in or near the top 50.  The committee took a lot of heat for putting 6 MWC teams in last year, but the worst of them was the autobid winner, so it was really 5.   Only San Diego State was seeded better than 8th, and it made the S16.  Utah State won its first round game convincingly over TCU in a 8/9 game.  Everyone else lost first round games, but they were all double digit seeds, Nevada had 7 seed Dayton on the ropes before collapsing at the end of the game to lose by 3, and Colorado State won a play-in game by 25 points.  So I tend to think the committee got it right and seeded properly last year, even if St. John's might have had a reason to complain, but anything that makes Pitino mad works for me. 

Getting back to my question, will the committee hold the MWC's collective failure to advance last year against it this year?   Once again the conference strength is just below the worst of the P5, but it doesn't have a huge lead over the next best conference the way it did last year, thanks largely to the WCC getting much stronger by adding Oregon State and Washington State. 

[Jordan91]

9 hours ago, tylerlindsey2111 said:

@Jordan91 @bierce fake UT has had their warts come to the light lately.

Even Barnes best team have struggles with offense. Sometimes it’s like watching paint dry. It’s why I thought Texas had a chance against the this year. A few years back they played Virginia and both scored under fifty. Barnes always wants to be the number one defense in the country. Well you can’t win if the score is 0-0. 

[bierce]

St. Mary's has held Santa Clara to a doughnut through 8:40 in the second half.  48-24 with 11:19 left, so maybe that question is being answered in St. Mary's favor.