SEC men's bb and other games of note weekend of 2/15-2/16

[bierce]

I took a break from this for a while, because I do get down when we lose.

We are currently an 11 seed in the Matrix.  I'm not convinced we'll earn a tournament bid, especially if Kaluma misses any length of time, but it's not like the teams currently on the wrong side of the bubble and chasing a bid have a lot to brag about. 

The first four out in the matrix are Wake Forest, SMU, Indiana, and UNC.

Wake is 1-6 in q1 but 4-0 in q2.  It beat Michigan in nearby Greensboro in what the NCAA net called a neutral floor.  Wouldn't matter.  Q1 game regardless.  Since then it has done nearly nothing before eking out a 77-76 win at home over UNC.  It is 4-0 in Q2 games, so it has that going for it.  NET 65.

SMU is 0-4 in Q1 games, but it is 5-1 in q2 games and has a NET 37.  SMU has zero wins over the field.  It did beat Pitt by 20 in its last game, but before that its best win was a neutral site win over LSU.  SMU hosts Wake today in what could be an elimination game. 

UNC is NET 50 with a 1-10 record in q1 games, 5-0 in q2.  It has nothing worthwhile left on schedule until a season ending road game against Duke.  It has lost 5 of its last 7, the wins being an ot home win over conference doormat BC and a one point home win over Pitt.  UNC beat UCLA in NYC, and it beat SMU by 15 in Chapel Hill for its two best wins.  Several of the losses were very close losses to top 20 teams.  The recent 20 point loss to Clemson wasn't one of them. 

Indiana is NET 57 with a 3-11 record in q1 games, 3-0 in q2.  It is just 2-8 over the last 10 games, but the wins were terrific (@ tOSU, @ Michigan State).  None of the losses are particularly bad, except for the margins (threee by 20+).  It couldn't come back against UCLA in Bloomington last night despite UCLA missing two straight front ends and giving IU the benefit of a pair of ft and the ball after a UCLA guard threw an elbow while being fouled in the press.  It gets 8 days off and will host Purdue on the 23rd.

So we're still in a good position to make the tournament if we get healthy and play better.  I don't think we have ever looked worse than we did against Alabama in our last game.  We had some horrible halves, like first the halves against Auburn, A&M, and Kentucky, and second half against Florida, but our last game was a catastrophe from the opening tip.  

I don't think making the tournament will save Terry's job.  I've said for months that he needed to make the tournament, win a game there, and show other indications of the program's health, and I don't think we're getting there.

But I want us to make the tournament and wins games.  Sue me.   

[CoachBobbyFinstock]

I am stunned we are still in position to somehow get a tourney bid after 3 straight losses. I don’t see us winning tonight. Texas will have to circle the wagons.

[Jordan91]

I would love to see them in the tournament. Alabama game was really disturbing to me. The second half was filled with dropped heads every time Alabama scored. Many times I saw players not run back after missed shots, essentially giving up. I think their confidence is gone. It felt like the realization their season is over. Injuries to key players have hurt as well. Really hope I am wrong. 

[bierce]

31 minutes ago, CoachBobbyFinstock said:

I am stunned we are still in position to somehow get a tourney bid after 3 straight losses. I don’t see us winning tonight. Texas will have to circle the wagons.

Bubble is weak.  We have 3 q1 wins.  I do think we will lose out if there is a close call between us and another team with a stronger OOC schedule.

There are several other SEC teams on the 10 or 11 line in the matrix-- OU, Vandy, Georgia, Arky.  All these teams can still play their way back out.

Arky goes to A&M.  Vandy goes to Tennessee.  Georgia hosts Missouri.  OU hosts LSU. 

In what could be a bid deciding game in the Big 12, red-hot Kansas State goes to BYU today.  KSU has come out of nowhere by winning 6 straight, including wins over ISU, KU, and Arizona, and it is now appearing on many first four out or next four out lists, and it even has a vote to get in from one bracketoid.  BYU is currently the last team in tournament according to the matrix, but it has played the second easiest schedule in the conference so far. 

[bierce]

The interesting thing about UCLA's win last night was that it was UCLA's first win this year outside of the Pacific or Mountain time zones.  It lost to UNC in NYC and lost conference road games to Nebraska, Maryland, Rutgers, and Illinois.  It won conference road games against Oregon, USC, and Washington, and a nonconference game against Arizona in Phoenix. 

[Jordan91]

Good Arky A&M going. 

[bierce]

Pitt won a had-to-to-stay-alive home game over a bad Miami team, but it didn't look good in doing so and won't win any points for it.  Currently has one vote in the matrix.

A&M decided to run away from its A&M-ness and dressed in grey unis with a single T on the front to go with the SEC logo.   The back has a small logo between the shoulders of an A slightly higher and overlaying a T.   Maybe an M is in there somewhere, but I couldn't see it.  It has been a game of runs.  Arky started 8-0 but fell behind 17-12.  A&M has led most of the way since, but Arky tied it at 50 before A&M went on another run.  69-61 Agroids final. 

Vandy blew out to a 13 point lead in the first half @ Tennessee.  52-50 Vandy now with 11:18 left.  

 

[BobInHouston]

5 hours ago, bierce said:

So we're still in a good position to make the tournament if we get healthy and play better.  I don't think we have ever looked worse than we did against Alabama in our last game.  We had some horrible halves, like first the halves against Auburn, A&M, and Kentucky, and second half against Florida, but our last game was a catastrophe from the opening tip.  

I don't think making the tournament will save Terry's job.  I've said for months that he needed to make the tournament, win a game there, and show other indications of the program's health, and I don't think we're getting there.

But I want us to make the tournament and wins games.  Sue me.   

The schedule lightens up after tonight. All the games can be won, but also lost.

[CJ Vogel]

Auburn and Alabama is this weekend’s real 3-point contest lol

[BobInHouston]

4 hours ago, bierce said:

Bubble is weak.  We have 3 q1 wins.  I do think we will lose out if there is a close call between us and another team with a stronger OOC schedule.

There are several other SEC teams on the 10 or 11 line in the matrix-- OU, Vandy, Georgia, Arky.  All these teams can still play their way back out.

I noticed there are only a handful teams on the Other at large list. I think that's due to the P5 playing extra conference games, keeping non-P5 teams from getting a resume-polishing win.

I believe Lunardi still has 14 SEC teams in -- for that to happen, 12/13/14 would need to win multiple games in the SECT, knocking out higher seeds that are already in.

[bierce]

WVU couldn't pull it out against Baylor.  WVU is on a steep decline despite the recent road win over Cincy.  Still has road games against Tech and BYU.

Speaking of Cincy, it is down 33-30 @ ISU with 3:39 left first half and ISU trying to complete the and one.

 

[BobInHouston]

4 minutes ago, bierce said:

WVU couldn't pull it out against Baylor.  WVU is on a steep decline despite the recent road win over Cincy.  Still has road games against Tech and BYU.

Speaking of Cincy, it is down 33-30 @ ISU with 3:39 left first half and ISU trying to complete the and one.

Seems like ISU has been in a funk for a while, mid-season slump maybe.

[bierce]

BTW, NCAA released its first top 16 for the tournament.  Duke is the only non-SEC team in the top 6. 

[Jordan91]

5 minutes ago, BobInHouston said:

Seems like ISU has been in a funk for a while, mid-season slump maybe.

They lost three in a row but they won their last game. 

[Jordan91]

11 minutes ago, bierce said:

WVU couldn't pull it out against Baylor.  WVU is on a steep decline despite the recent road win over Cincy.  Still has road games against Tech and BYU.

Speaking of Cincy, it is down 33-30 @ ISU with 3:39 left first half and ISU trying to complete the and one.

 

Baylor is not Baylor this year. 

[BobInHouston]

4 minutes ago, bierce said:

BTW, NCAA released its first top 16 for the tournament.  Duke is the only non-SEC team in the top 6. 

Noticed that. Without dragging RT into this thread, that's a factor in what the other teams in the SEC have to deal with.

[bierce]

ISU really missed Momcilovic

[bierce]

Missouri is tearing Georgia a new one in the second half, outscoring UGa 44-23 in the half so far with 4:15 to go. 

Edited February 15 by bierce

[Andrew Scott]

I’m sure it’s been brought up before but not closing on JT Toppin who went to TT sure did hurt. Dude has a 40+ game and 32 in last week. 

[bierce]

2 minutes ago, Andrew Scott said:

I’m sure it’s been brought up before but not closing on JT Toppin who went to TT sure did hurt. Dude has a 40+ game and 32 in last week. 

With 27 rebounds, 5 blocks, and 4 steals. 

Hell of a recruiting pick-up by Richard Pitino at New Mexico, but UNM couldn't keep him once P5 NIL came calling. 

[bierce]

Wake 77 SMU 66

And that's why I have never bought SMU as a tournament team.  Still winless against the field, and it just lost by double digits at home to a bubble team. 

[qaertyisthatdude]

Porter Moser is that dude

[bierce]

3 minutes ago, qaertyisthatdude said:

Porter Moser is that dude

Yeah, that could be it for Moser at OU.  Losing at home to LSU will drop it to the bottom of the 11 seeds, and it has 5 straight games against ranked teams coming up.  If OU doesn't turn it around in a hurry, it will miss the tournament for the 4th time in 4 Porter Moser years. 

Cam Carter with 7 points on two possessions in the final 20 seconds to win that for LSU. 

[bierce]

BYU beat KSU 80-65 to end KSU's hot streak.  KSU may need to nearly win out to climb back in contention for a bid.  It is 4-6 in q1 games, but it is only 2-4 in q2 and has a pair of q3 losses (home to LSU by 10 and@ Wichita State by 19).

San Diego State beat Boise State 64-47 last night.  Boise State is now 0-5 against the other top 4 teams in the MWC, but it has home games left against New Mexico, Utah State, and Colorado State, and it has played demonstrably better at home in conference so far, but it probably needs to win at least two of the three big games to keep hopes alive for an at large bid.  MWC looking more and more like a three bid conference (UNM, Utah State, and SDSU).   Boise State had very good OOC wins over Clemson (home) and St. Mary's (neutral), but it did nothing outside the state of Idaho, and it had a horrible loss to BC in the Cayman Islands and a bad loss to Washington State in an arena in Boise that the NCAA decided to call a neutral floor.  Yeah, sure. 

New Mexico hosts Utah State today.  With a win today, UNM would have a 2 game cushion on Utah State and 3+ game cushion on everyone else.  Won't matter much for conference tournament purposes, but getting the likes of Wyoming or San Jose State in your first game is better than having to face someone like Nevada or UNLV.  MWC gives five teams a first round bye to winnow the field to 8, and no one gets a double bye.  Oh, wait.  SJSU is the only team to have beaten UNM in conference so far. 

A couple of Big Ten games of note today:

Nebraska (49) @ Northwestern (59)

Nebraska managed to resurrect itself with wins over Illinois, Oregon, and Ohio State, and it is a 10 seed in the matrix despite the poor NET ranking.  When Nebraska loses, it has done it in impressive fashion (37, 36, 28).  Big games coming up are hosting Michigan on 2/24 and going to tOSU on 3/4.

Michigan (20) @ tOSU (27)

tOSU is a low 9 in the matrix despite the strong NET ranking.  It goes to UCLA next weekend and will host Nebraska in the second to last game of the season. 

 

[bierce]

Someone needs to explain to me how Kansas is still NET 14 after it lost to Utah last night.  Kansas did have a very nice November in beating Duke and Michigan State on neutral floors, and it recently evened the score against ISU, but it is 10-8 over its last 18 games, lost a home game to DeVries-less WVU, and is 1-6 against Pomeroy top 50 since November. 

Edited February 16 by bierce