Bubble watch

[bierce]

I think it's time to start the bubble watch.  Our season can still go either way, but let's start looking at the competition for the last 12 spots in the tournament.

The matrix currently has tOSU as the last 9, and losing a close game to Michigan probably didn't hurt it much.

Tens are WVU, Nebraska, OU, and Vandy, but OU and Vandy would be 11 seeds if only the brackets updated since Saturday are counted.

Elevens are Texas, SDSU, BYU, Arkansas, Georgia (only 5 since the autobids will spill over into one of the 11 seeds), but Georgia would be replaced by WF if only the brackets updated since Saturday are counted.

In the 24 brackets updated since Saturday, SMU, UNC, and Xavier get single mentions.  Georgia in on 11, while WF is on 13, so that is a close call right now in the Matrix.  Arkansas is on 17.  OU and Vandy are on 23.  We, and everyone else in the matrix, is on all 24.  We have more 10s or better than 11s in those 24 brackets.  We even have an 8.  

As the week goes on, I'll start to break down each contender.  Right now I'll only say that I see Xavier as the team with the best chance to climb back in.  It is on a hot streak and hosts Creighton for another chance at a q1 win.  It is only 1-8 in q1 right now, but 2 losses were in OT and 2 others were in single possession games.  If it gets to 20 wins in the regular season and doesn't embarrass itself in the Big East tournament, then I think it might get a bid.  On the one hand, the committee caught a lot of flak about snubbing the Big East last year.  On the other hand, Sean Miller isn't the NCAA's favorite guy. 

 

[bierce]

I'll start with OU, which started the season 13-0 with neutral site wins over Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan, climbed into the top ten, and then the conference season started.  OU is the best example of a team with really high highs and really low lows.

Net 52.  16-9.  4-7 in q1 (added the road win over Arky).  Recent 3-9 run culminated in a q3 home loss to LSU.  Now has 5 q1 games left and a 6th game that could be either q1 or q2 depending on whether Mississippi State stays in the top 30 (it's 29th this morning).  OU is 1-7 in its last 8 q1 games, winless in its last 7 games against Pomeroy top 35, and that all it has left on the schedule.  Given the size of the last three losses against top 20 teams (28, 18, 24), I don't see OU turning this thing around.

OU doesn't even have the benefit of a strong OOC SOS, thanks to playing 6 teams Pomeroy 300+ and Northwestern State.  That's always a bad idea. 

Edited Monday at 04:51 PM by bierce

[TexasMDcoach]

What does your gut tell you on Texas chances to win 3 of the next 5 and get in with an 8-10 conference record?

 

@South Carolina

@Arkansas

vsGeorgia

@22Mississippi St

vsOklahoma

[bierce]

Vandy is the anti-OU.  It has been very steady, playing at a better level than expected at the start of the year, and then losing the games it was supposed to lose and winning the games it was supposed to win.  The home victory over Tennessee is about the only exception to that, but Tennessee is the most erratic top 6 team in the country.  Kentucky didn't have Carr, so that wasn't that much of an upset, if an upset at all given home court advantages.

Vandy is 17-8 overall, 2-7 q1, 4-1 q2.  Texas is on the cusp of becoming a q1 opponent for someone's home game, so Vandy could get a 3rd q1 win that way, but the rest of the schedule is rough--5 q1 games and a home game against Arky.  It is 1-5 in conference road games and has 3 of those left, two against ranked teams, and a season ender against bubble team Georgia.  Vandy doesn't have any bad losses, but it doesn't have any statement OOC wins either.  Best team it played OOC was Drake, and it lost by 11 on a neutral floor.  Vandy probably needs to finish 3-3 down the stretch to feel at all comfortable about its chances. 

[bierce]

12 minutes ago, TexasMDcoach said:

What does your gut tell you on Texas chances to win 3 of the next 5 and get in with an 8-10 conference record?

 

@South Carolina

@Arkansas

vsGeorgia

@22Mississippi St

vsOklahoma

Chances are good if we get Kaluma back, but chances are chances.

Edited Monday at 05:19 PM by bierce

[bierce]

WVU is a lot like OU.  Strong start and having the season go bad over the last 6 weeks, but WVU does have the season ending injury to DeVries to thank for that.

Net 44.  15-10, 5-7 q1, 2-3 q2.  Beat Gonzaga and Arizona but lost to Louisville in the Bahamas tournament that played out nearly upside down.  Lost by 24 @ Pitt in November.  Beat KU in Lawrence to start the conference season.  5-8 since with the home win over ISU being the only good win, and just 2-6 since winning that game.  OK, it won @ Cincy.  Big whoop.  Meanwhile, it has lost to tourney outsiders TCU and Arizona State, the ASU loss coming in Morgantown.  It has 8 fewer points than possessions in conference play, so you can see what a struggle it is for WVU to score since DeVries was lost.  Four wins against the field looks good, very good when you consider they are all against top 20 teams.  Four losses to teams that won't make the field looks very bad. 

WVU has only 2 q1 games left on its schedule, and both are going to be very tough (@ Tech, and @ BYU and BYU is currently fighting for a spot in the field).   This could go either way for WVU.  It is likely to finish between 9th and 11th in the conference, meaning it will have a first round conference tournament game against Colorado, OSU, or ASU.  A loss there could scuttle the 'Eers.  Upcoming home games against Cincy and TCU and road game @ Utah will have a big effect on conference tournament seeding. 

[jkates]

Thanks for this info and analysis, @bierce.

[bierce]

The other team currently on the 10 line in the matrix is Nebraska, and it should be safe.  It gets a 9 seed from about 1/3 of the bracketizonks who updated since Saturday, and winning on the road at Northwestern only strengthens its position.  Weak Net at 46 due to three losses by staggering amounts (37, 36, and 28), but NU is 6-7 in q1 games and 3-1 in q2.  It has one q3 loss at home to Rutgers, but with a schedule that intense that can happen.  All Nebraska probably has to do is avoid a skid of losing 5 straight games like it suffered in January when it lost 6 straight.  A home win over Michigan or a road win over tOSU at this point would just guarantee a better seed. 

Edited Monday at 06:38 PM by bierce

[bierce]

SDSU is right behind Texas in the matrix.

NET 50, but 4-4 in q1, 3-1 in q12, 2-1 in q3.  Lost to UNLV at home for that q3 loss.  Beat Houston on a neutral floor for a huge statement win.  Recently finished season sweep over Boise State to make the MWC a likely three bid league while nearly burying the Broncos for tournament purposes despite BSU having a better net ranking.  (I know I'd prefer a team that beat Houston on a neutral floor over a team that beat Clemson and St. Mary's in its own state, not to mention BSU having the q4 loss to BC.  BSU has a chance with home games against UNM, Utah State, and Colorado State left, but it needs to get it together.)

SDSU hosts UNM next week in what will be a must watch game for me (see my comments about Pitino on the coaching changes thread).   It also goes to Utah State this weekend for its last q1 game this year and a chance to get back into second place in the conference.

[bierce]

BYU NET 36, 17-8, 3-6 q1, 4-2 q2.  No bad losses.   BYU profiles a lot like Texas, just without any guys missing games.  No one who plays double digit minutes has missed any game except against OOC dreck.  Won 6 of its last 8.  But . . . what's the signature win?  Over NET 28 Baylor at home in OT?  @ DeVries-less WVU?  @ NET 75 and in a 6 game losing streak UCF is the 3rd q1 win.  BYU could easily be down to one q1 win by the time the committee makes its selections.  But it has 4 q1 games left on the schedule, but @ ISU and @ Arizona will be murder.  Home against KU and @ ASU look more winnable, especially since KU lost its last three road games (Baylor, KSU, and Utah).  

Edited Monday at 07:18 PM by bierce

[bierce]

Arkansas NET 42, 15-10, 3-8 q1, 2-1 q2.  Whether Arky makes it depends more on which Arky shows up over the next 3 weeks than where it is now.  Is it the team that beat Kentucky and Texas on the road and rallied to fight Bama to within 4 points in Fayetteville?  Or is it the team that lost 6 of 7 to start the conference season including @ LSU and home to OU?  It has chances to get more q1 wins.  @ Auburn would be a huge win.  Home against Missouri is more likely.  Home against Texas and against Mississippi State could be q1 wins depending how we and they finish the year.  But 4-10 in q1-q2 isn't a good look.  Neither is 2-8 against the certain entrants into the field, but 2-0 against the bubble definitely helps.  

[bierce]

The last team currently on the 11 line is Georgia.  It's easier for me to handle Georgia than WF after Arky because I don't have to switch more than one Kenpom page.

Georgia NET 39, 16-10, 2-10 q1, 3-0 q2.  That's a problem.  It hasn't won a conference road game yet and has 3 of its 5 remaining games on the road.  That's another problem.  It is 2-8 over its last 10 games, with home games over So Car and LSU being the only wins.  That's another problem.  Tyrin Lawrence missed the last two games after suffering a non-contact leg injury against MSU.  That's another problem, but it does have the week off, so maybe Lawrence can get healed.  Next two games are @ Auburn and home against Florida.  Florida beat it by 30 in Gainesville, but it played Broome-less Auburn to the last second while losing in Athens. 

Trending wrong, hurt, bad quad showing.  I doubt it will remain in the field.  In fact, I think it is already replaced by WF. 

[bierce]

We'll start with the teams on the outside looking in with WF since I think it might be on the inside looking out right now.

Wake Forest NET 58, 17-9, 2-6 q1, 5-0 q2, one q3 loss (home to Florida State).  Huge win in November over Michigan in Greensboro, which is a neutral site game for NET purposes, even if it was played only 25 miles from WF campus.  Not much else on the resume, but it has swept the other ACC pretenders Pitt, UNC, and SMU, but it won single possession games at home against UNC and Pitt.

I've said before that I think WF profiles a lot like Virginia last year.  Virginia got the nod over Pitt despite a much worse NET ranking mainly because it finished third in the conference.  Well, WF is only tied for 4th in the loss column and unlikely to move up.  It could move down if SMU can beat Clemson in Dallas, but SMU is 0-3 against top 50 teams in the conference, losing the games by a combined 77 points, and two of them at home. 

And now you should be getting a pretty good idea of how weak the bubble is. 

I do think Xavier has a chance to climb back in, and KSU could if it goes on a 5 game winning streak to end the year, so I will chug along. 

[CJ Vogel]

Really good read and intel. Thanks @bierce

[bierce]

I think I've made my view clear about SMU for weeks, but in a nutshell--I don't buy it.

SMU NET 40, 19-6, but 0-4 q1, 5-2 q2.  There's nothing on the resume except the NET ranking that says tournament team.  It did recently beat Pitt at home by 20, but Pitt is 1-7 in its last 8 games against top 100 teams.  Just that one win over a team in the top 80.  Huge losses to Duke and Louisville at home.  15 point loss to UNC in Chapel Hill.   OOC loss by 11 to well out of tourney contention Butler.

Just . . . no.   Ok, if it wins out, beating Clemson along the way, then maybe.

 

Edited Monday at 08:30 PM by bierce

[bierce]

Xavier NET 54, 16-10, 1-8 q1, 6-2 q2, no bad losses.  I think Xavier has a chance because it is hot, has a favorable remaining schedule, could get to 20 wins, and has a home game against Creighton and a road game against Butler.  Both of those are q2 games right now, but they are really good q2 games.  Two of the q1 losses are OT losses @ St. John's and @ UConn.  Another is a one possession loss at home to Marquette.  OOC SOS middling.  

Two years ago, Xavier finished pretty strongly under Miller.  Last year, not so much.  Actually not at all. 

[bierce]

UNC is the last team to have received at least one vote in the matrix after Saturday's games.

UNC NET 47, 15-11, 1-10 (ouch) q1, 5-0 q2, q3 loss at home to Stanford. 

UNC will get credit for being UNC and having the 6th best OOC SOS.  Some of its losses are about as good as losses can get (by 3 @ Kansas, OT against Michigan State on a neutral floor, by 6 to Florida on a neutral-ish floor).  It could finish strong, having 4 of its 6 remaining games at home, but the only q1 game in there is hosting Duke, and it hasn't beaten anyone better than Notre Dame on the road, and Virginia is a pretty hot team right now.

That is it for anyone with a vote in the matrix from anyone who updated since Saturday's games.  I think KSU, Pitt, and Nova deserve a little mention, so I'll get to them later in the week.  If KSU loses at Utah tonight, maybe I'll skip it.   I'll also take a look at some conferences that may or may not have teams that deserve an at large bid but would cause a squeeze on the field if they lose in conference tournaments.  VCU, I'm talking to you. 

[bierce]

Only game that could affect the bubble tonight is KSU @ Utah.  KSU is done with a loss.  It can get back in the mix with a win followed by a few more wins, but it was within single digits for less than a minute in the second half against BYU on Saturday.  

[bierce]

The other conferences that could cause trouble if the favorite loses the conference tournament.

A-10

A decade ago, the A-10 was trying to position itself as a higher than just mid-major conference in basketball.  In 2014 it had 8 teams finish in the Pomeroy top 100, put 6 teams into the tournament, and Archie Miller took 11 seed Dayton to the Elite Eight, even though the rest of the conference managed just one win.   Miller and Shaka Smart were coaches P6 schools were drooling over, and Dan Hurley had recently taken over at Rhode Island.

But that was then.  2021 was the last season in which the A-10 had two teams worthy of consideration for an at large bid, but it has usually managed to get a second team anyway, because the best team manages to lose the conference tournament.

This year we're looking at VCU as the only legit candidate for an at large bid.  It is actually in second place in the standings behind George Mason right now, but it will host GMU on Saturday.   It is 1-1 in q1 games, with no q1 left until conference tournament.  It is 5-3 in q2 with at most two q2 games before the conference tournament.

Why are there no other legit candidates for at-large bids from the A-10?  Answer--Dayton suffered bad conference losses and the rest sucked in OOC games.

George Mason's best win was a road win over Pomeroy 146 James Madison, and it lost to Pomeroy 200 Central Michigan at home and @ 150 East Carolina.

St. Joe's is the other top 100 team, and it beat Tech in Brooklyn and Nova, but it lost at home to Central Connecticut, Princeton, and Charleston, 3 q3 losses that are on the verge of becoming q4. 

Even VCU while it did beat 71 Colorado State on a neutral floor, it lost @ 38 New Mexico and on neutral floors to 204 Seton Hall and 74 Nevada. 

Dayton had great wins over Marquette and UConn, but it lost to UNC, ISU, and Cincy and managed no true road wins OOC.   It then managed to lose in conference @ 184 UMass, @ 110 George Washington, @ 99 St. Bonaventure, and at home to both VCU and George Mason.  

So I don't see any A-10 teams earning an at large bid unless VCU and Dayton beat all other comers and split the season finale and a conference tournament showdown.  George Mason won't survive losing to VCU in the regular season and losing in the conference tournament.  If George Mason beats VCU, then it is highly unlikely it could play both Dayton and VCU in the conference tournament and wind up 3-1 against them.  I don't think 2-1 against them will earn it a tournament bid when it has nothing else of note on its resume. 

In sum, if VCU wins out the regular season but loses in the A-10 tournament, then the A-10 is likely to have two entrants.  Otherwise it is likely to be a one bid conference.

 

[CoachBobbyFinstock]

6 hours ago, TexasMDcoach said:

What does your gut tell you on Texas chances to win 3 of the next 5 and get in with an 8-10 conference record?

 

@South Carolina

@Arkansas

vsGeorgia

@22Mississippi St

vsOklahoma

I would think Texas has a better than 50/50 shot of going 3-2. South Carolina is last in the SEC. Georgia is one of the worst teams and we get them at home. We beat OU on the road so that means we will likely be favored to beat them in Austin.

I do not expect to beat Miss St or Ark. That would be found money. Beating Miss St would be big.

[bierce]

I wouldn't sleep on South Carolina.  It lost to Auburn and Florida in one possession games.  It lost to Mississippi State in OT.  It lost to Mississippi in a come from ahead in the last minute fashion.  It lost by 4 to A&M.  Alabama was the only team to dispatch it easily in Columbia. 

[bierce]

WCC has Gonzaga and St. Mary's, the two usual suspects, and nothing else worthy of an at large bid at present.   San Fran is NET 60 but only a 1-5 q1 record, the win being a 65-64 home win over St. Mary's.  It has a game to play against Gonzaga and visits Oregon State, so there is some room for hope, but it has to win both of those or win one and beat either St. Mary's or Gonzaga in the WCC tournament to have much of a chance.  Santa Clara is NET 55 and has a 2-4 q1 record including a great win @ Gonzaga, but it has 5 OOC losses, none to teams in the field, and it has 3 q3 losses, including home against NDSU.   Once again St. Mary's has a better NET ranking than its record would support, and the committee has passed it over in the past despite a high NET ranking.  Maybe the home win over Gonzaga, neutral win over Nebraska, ass-kicking of USC on a neutral floor, and sweep over Santa Clara will be enough to protect it this year. 

Upshot--two teams.  A third only someone other than Gonzaga or St. Mary's wins the WCC tournament.

[BobInHouston]

3 hours ago, CoachBobbyFinstock said:

I would think Texas has a better than 50/50 shot of going 3-2. South Carolina is last in the SEC. Georgia is one of the worst teams and we get them at home. We beat OU on the road so that means we will likely be favored to beat them in Austin.

I do not expect to beat Miss St or Ark. That would be found money. Beating Miss St would be big.

Kenpom's expected wins for Texas currently adds to 2.62, so it seems like you are right. Torvik is at 2.75.

Edited Tuesday at 03:09 AM by BobInHouston

[Gerry Hamilton]

20 hours ago, TexasMDcoach said:

What does your gut tell you on Texas chances to win 3 of the next 5 and get in with an 8-10 conference record?

 

@South Carolina

@Arkansas

vsGeorgia

@22Mississippi St

vsOklahoma

Solid. The one game Texas can't lose is at South Carolina ... would be a bad bubble loss.

Essentially it's this for Texas:

Win at South Carolina Saturday

Win the two homes games. 

8-10 and in as a No. 10 seed. 

[Gerry Hamilton]

13 hours ago, bierce said:

I wouldn't sleep on South Carolina.  It lost to Auburn and Florida in one possession games.  It lost to Mississippi State in OT.  It lost to Mississippi in a come from ahead in the last minute fashion.  It lost by 4 to A&M.  Alabama was the only team to dispatch it easily in Columbia. 

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