Bubble watch

[bierce]

Xavier leading Creighton 42-27 at the half.  If it keeps this kind of lead, it will start appearing on a lot of brackets, and if it follows it up with a win @ Butler, it will likely get back in the field.

[Jordan91]

Just now, bierce said:

Xavier leading Creighton 42-27 at the half.  If it keeps this kind of lead, it will start appearing on a lot of brackets, and if it follows it up with a win @ Butler, it will likely get back in the field.

Interesting. 

[bierce]

Not a bubble game, but Tennessee just pulled off a near miracle victory over Bama.  Started with a four point play the hard way, getting a bucket, missing the ft, getting fouled on the rebound, making both.  Then it tied up Bama near the end of the shot clock, forcing Bama to inbound, and it got a 5 second violation.  Then it hit a 30 footer at the buzzer to win 79-76. 

[bierce]

Xavier 83 Creighton 61.  Expect Xavier to appear on a lot of brackets Monday.

[HenryJames]

Tyrone Hill and Derek Strong are a tough matchup.

[bierce]

I've already buried SMU, but now you can dig up the casket, seal it in lead, and drop it to the bottom of the ocean. 

Stanford wins by 5 after Raynaud scored on a putback slam with 8.7 seconds left.  I thought it was strange for SMU to let Stanford run the shot clock out with a 3 point lead and 37 seconds left in the game. 

[bierce]

Indiana won on the road by 16. 

Vandy beat Missouri by 4 in OT.

Boise State in a one point game midway through the second half. 

[bierce]

Wake Forest beat ND 74-71

Boise State won 66-61 against a team that triggered an investigation about gambling.

We're going to be looking up at about 6-8 teams ahead of us for the last spot in the tournament if we don't have a miraculous second half like we did against A&M. 

[bierce]

We're now out in all reasonable probability.  Our only chance might be winning four straight, which would mean winning at Mississippi State, home against OU, a first round SEC tournament game against Arkansas or Georgia, and a second round SEC tournament game against Tennessee or Missouri.  In other words, an illusory promise.

But I'm still interested in who will and who won't make the tournament, so forgive me if continue this thread, basketball junkie that I am.

WVU was clobbered by BYU last night in a late game.  It has now lost 7 of its last 8 games against tournament teams, and it has lost them by an average of 13+ points.  Still in the field thanks to 5 q1 wins, some of which were really, really good, but now at serious risk.  A loss at Utah Tuesday will put it in serious jeopardy. 

San Diego State beat Wyoming 72-69, staying firmly in the field even if only a 10 seed. 

UC San Diego won by a bazillion.  At this point, I am definitely of a mind the committee should select UC San Diego, VCU, and maybe Drake, even if they lose in their conference tournaments.  That could change if they suffer a bad loss in the interim before the conference tournament, but the worst of the P5 contenders aren't showing much reason to include them, with the exception of Indiana, which has gone 4-2 since Woodson announced he would step down, with wins @ Michigan State and home over Purdue and the two losses were close losses to projected 4 and 6 seeds.  

[bierce]

Drake had its third near miss yesterday, needing OT to win at home over a Missouri State team that finished 2-18 in conference.  Because P5 bubble teams are playing so middlin' of late, I am tempted to give Drake an at large bid, but after yesterday's escape, being in a one point game in the final minute against Evansville, and needing OT to beat No Iowa in its last 3 games, I can't really say for certain that I would or that the committee should.  But it went undefeated in non-conference action, beat Vandy on a neutral floor, and beat K State in Kansas City, so why not?

Only game of interest to bubble watchers tonight is Wake Forest @ Duke.  WF is desperate after going 1-3 over a four game stretch that included home losses to FSU and VIrginia and a road loss to NC State.  Only win in there was the 11 point win over SMU in Dallas.  WF did win its last game 74-71 over Notre Dame, but that only made it look worse. 

[bierce]

Wake down 81-47.  NIT bound absent winning conference tournament.  Wake was arguable screwed by the committee twice, but I don't think missing the tournament 5 straight years was what Wake had in mind when it hired Forbes. 

Texas, Georgia, Indiana, UNC, Boise State, and WVU on the road tomorrow.  Arky @ Vandy and Nebraska @ tOSU are the double bubble games.  

[Jordan91]

On 3/2/2025 at 10:43 AM, bierce said:

We're now out in all reasonable probability.  Our only chance might be winning four straight, which would mean winning at Mississippi State, home against OU, a first round SEC tournament game against Arkansas or Georgia, and a second round SEC tournament game against Tennessee or Missouri.  In other words, an illusory promise.

But I'm still interested in who will and who won't make the tournament, so forgive me if continue this thread, basketball junkie that I am.

WVU was clobbered by BYU last night in a late game.  It has now lost 7 of its last 8 games against tournament teams, and it has lost them by an average of 13+ points.  Still in the field thanks to 5 q1 wins, some of which were really, really good, but now at serious risk.  A loss at Utah Tuesday will put it in serious jeopardy. 

San Diego State beat Wyoming 72-69, staying firmly in the field even if only a 10 seed. 

UC San Diego won by a bazillion.  At this point, I am definitely of a mind the committee should select UC San Diego, VCU, and maybe Drake, even if they lose in their conference tournaments.  That could change if they suffer a bad loss in the interim before the conference tournament, but the worst of the P5 contenders aren't showing much reason to include them, with the exception of Indiana, which has gone 4-2 since Woodson announced he would step down, with wins @ Michigan State and home over Purdue and the two losses were close losses to projected 4 and 6 seeds.  

Continue away. It’s very interesting for hoops junkies. 

[bierce]

27 minutes ago, Jordan91 said:

Continue away. It’s very interesting for hoops junkies. 

There has to be a picture on the internet somewhere of someone mainlining college basketball film and stats.

[bierce]

BTW, South Carolina will be looking to get a third straight home win against a bubble team when it plays Georgia tomorrow.  The Gamecocks were blasted in the other Columbia by Missouri between the wins over Texas and Arky. 

[ArizonaLonghorn]

Just read this in Sports Illustrated.  There are bubble teams who hit their stride late and deserve a spot and there are bubble teams who are waving the white flag and undeserving, according to this author (Pat Forde).

 

Quote

 

When a power-conference team shows they don’t belong in the Big Dance, believe them. Virginia was that team last year, being blown out repeatedly in the final month, and yet the selection committee gave them a bid. The Cavaliers rewarded that blind faith with one final blowout loss, to Colorado State by 25 in the First Four.

This year, the group signaling that it wants no part of this thing is the Texas Longhorns. They’re 16–13, 5–11 in the SEC, and have lost six of their last seven. That includes embarrassing blowouts against the last-place South Carolina Gamecocks and at home to the bubble-dwelling Georgia Bulldogs.

 

He ain't wrong.

[Clint Baros]

I was looking at Joe Lunardi's bracketology from earlier today and we are one of the first four out. I have seen people say "we aren't making it, stop thinking we can" But realistically we can. What would we need? would winning out regular season be enough? would we need a tourney win? I get we have little to no chance to go far if we make it at all but I need to hear the march madness music for a texas game this year.

[Jordan91]

9 hours ago, ArizonaLonghorn said:

Just read this in Sports Illustrated.  There are bubble teams who hit their stride late and deserve a spot and there are bubble teams who are waving the white flag and undeserving, according to this author (Pat Forde).

 

He ain't wrong.

He’s not.

[John Moore]

Bubble Watch 2025: Conference locks for men's March Madness

Spoiler

 

[bierce]

11 hours ago, Clint Baros said:

I was looking at Joe Lunardi's bracketology from earlier today and we are one of the first four out. I have seen people say "we aren't making it, stop thinking we can" But realistically we can. What would we need? would winning out regular season be enough? would we need a tourney win? I get we have little to no chance to go far if we make it at all but I need to hear the march madness music for a texas game this year.

We need at least 3 straight wins and probably 4.   That will be winning @ Mississippi State, beating a bubble team in Austin, beating a bubble team in Nashville, and probably needing to also beat either Tennessee or Missouri in the second round in Nashville.

It's possible, but do you see us doing that with how the team is playing?  I sure don't.

BTW, Lunardi has always been higher on Texas than the matrix as a whole, and he is not the most accurate bracketwit.  He's merely the most visible.

Edited Tuesday at 05:46 PM by bierce

[BobInHouston]

16 minutes ago, bierce said:

We need at least 3 straight wins and probably 4.   That will be winning @ Mississippi State, beating a bubble team in Austin, beating a bubble team in Nashville, and probably needing to also beat either Tennessee or Missouri in the second round in Nashville.

It's possible, but do you see us doing that with how the team is playing?  I sure don't.

BTW, Lunardi has always been higher on Texas than the matrix as a whole, and he is not the most accurate bracketwit.  He's merely the most visible.

Joe usually has the right participants, just not in the right spots. But where he might be wrong is on a team such as Texas, with not a great resume and having to impress at the very end as other teams drop out.

They literally have to be the last team standing. Then it would be on to Dayton.

[bierce]

3 minutes ago, BobInHouston said:

Joe usually has the right participants, just not in the right spots. But where he might be wrong is on a team such as Texas, with not a great resume and having to impress at the very end as other teams drop out.

They literally have to be the last team standing. Then it would be on to Dayton.

Which is true of most bracketwangers. 

Every now and then you get a team in the field that was overlooked by nearly everyone (I'm thinking Tulsa 2014 here), but when Texas is included by only 2 of 99 bracketweirdians who have updated since our Saturday loss, then I'm feeling pretty certain we have a lot of work ahead of us.

And I think Lunardi is really cool because of all his work at St. Joe's with radio broadcasts and teaching classes.  I just don't live and die by his predictions. 

[Clint Baros]

3 hours ago, bierce said:

We need at least 3 straight wins and probably 4.   That will be winning @ Mississippi State, beating a bubble team in Austin, beating a bubble team in Nashville, and probably needing to also beat either Tennessee or Missouri in the second round in Nashville.

It's possible, but do you see us doing that with how the team is playing?  I sure don't.

BTW, Lunardi has always been higher on Texas than the matrix as a whole, and he is not the most accurate bracketwit.  He's merely the most visible.

not saying i see it happen i’m just desperately hoping that i can see texas in a march madness game this year. But preciate the insight, it helped a lot!

[bierce]

2 minutes ago, Clint Baros said:

not saying i see it happen i’m just desperately hoping that i can see texas in a march madness game this year. But preciate the insight, it helped a lot!

I'm hoping, too.  Not expecting at this point, but hoping.

Hey, NC State came from nowhere to win the ACC tournament last year.  This after losing its last four regular season games and 9 of its last 13 regular season games with only one of the wins coming over a team better than 71st.  And it had to beat both Duke and UNC on its way to the ACC tournament title. 

It can happen. 

[BobInHouston]

3 hours ago, bierce said:

Which is true of most bracketwangers. 

Every now and then you get a team in the field that was overlooked by nearly everyone (I'm thinking Tulsa 2014 here), but when Texas is included by only 2 of 99 bracketweirdians who have updated since our Saturday loss, then I'm feeling pretty certain we have a lot of work ahead of us.

And I think Lunardi is really cool because of all his work at St. Joe's with radio broadcasts and teaching classes.  I just don't live and die by his predictions. 

I always treat the seeds as a group. If my team is in this group, who might they play? And I leave it at that. Where they might play, what they'd have to play down the road... that's just a WAG.

[bierce]

39 minutes ago, BobInHouston said:

I always treat the seeds as a group. If my team is in this group, who might they play? And I leave it at that. Where they might play, what they'd have to play down the road... that's just a WAG.

Ahh, but the super secret science of jockeying teams around to avoid second round conference intramural and to create compelling storylines for announcers and audiences who don't really know enough about what is happening on court.