Skip to content

Flawed logic has tainted the College Football Playoff selection process

What Bruce Feldman said in one social media post encapsulated the growing angst toward the College Football Playoff Selection Committee.

Upon the release of the committee’s penultimate rankings on Tuesday, the path to a third consecutive trip to the CFP for No. 13 Texas is, for all intents and purposes, a dead end. To get into the 12-team field, the Longhorns need Texas Tech to win the Big 12, Georgia to notch a landslide revenge victory over Alabama in the SEC title game and then hope the committee values the body of work Texas has put together throughout one of the toughest 12-game schedules any Power Four team had to navigate (LSU is the only bowl-eligible team ranked above the Longhorns in ESPN’s strength of schedule metric, which says Steve Sarkisian’s team played the eighth-toughest schedule in the country).

That’s unlikely to happen because the committee, based on what committee chair Hunter Yurachek said on Tuesday’s post-reveal conference call with reporters, believes Texas’ 29-21 road loss to Florida on Oct. 4 is too big a blemish to overlook.

“You’re spot on,” the Arkansas athletic director said when he was asked if the loss to the Gators is “the thing hurting Texas the most.”

“The committee has a great deal of respect for Texas and they've played an incredible schedule,” he added. “They've got four teams they played in our top 10. They beat OU on a neutral field. They just beat Texas A&M at home this past weekend. They lost to No. 1, Ohio State, and lost to No. 3, Georgia.

“But one key stat this week in the teams ranked in our top 15, there's 17 total losses for those teams. Sixteen of those losses came against teams that are currently ranked or have been ranked in our top 25 this year. The only loss to an unranked team was Texas' loss to Florida at Florida, and really Florida dominated that game — held Texas to 50 yards rushing, two interceptions. So, it's not that Texas played Ohio State. It is Texas' loss to Florida that's holding them back now.”

We don’t need to read the tea leaves when the committee is shoving them down our throats. When it comes to Texas, the committee has decided that an objectively bad loss supercedes three wins over teams currently ranked in the committee’s top 15.

That would be understandable had Yurachek’s words and the committee's actions done anything other than validate Feldman’s rant. The committee ranks teams as it wants, then works backward to make it make sense.

How is Texas dinged for the Florida loss, but Alabama’s two-touchdown loss to a Florida State team that finished 5-7 after getting blown out by the Gators last Saturday doesn’t matter?

Head-to-head results appear to matter for Oklahoma and Alabama (No. 8 and No. 9, respectively) and Texas and Vanderbilt (the Longhorns passed the 10-2 Commodores in the rankings). That's the case for No. 12 Miami, which opened the season with a win over No. 10 Notre Dame.

Two weeks ago, Yuracheck said Oregon was still getting credit for a road win over Penn State. The same appears to apply to Oklahoma's road win over Tennessee and road wins over Missouri for Alabama and Texas A&M, the Aggies going into Baton Rouge and manhandling LSU and the Crimson Tide's Iron Bowl win over Auburn.

Still, Yuracheck said on Tuesday that Vanderbilt lacks a signature win because LSU, Missouri and Tennessee aren’t currently ranked by the committee, even though Josh Heupel’s team fell out of the rankings after the Commodores’ 45-24 rout of the Volunteers in Neyland Stadium.

The CFP selection process isn’t broken. It would’ve needed to be a well-oiled machine first, which was never the case. And although no system will ever be perfect, a transparent process that leaves more questions than answers isn't working.

Bill Hancock was the executive director of the CFP from its inception through last season, when he helped Rich Clark transition into the role. In 2023, when a late-season injury to quarterback Jordan Travis put Florida State’s CFP hopes in doubt, Hancock clarified the selection committee’s criteria for setting the then-four-team field.

“It is ‘best,’” Hancock said. “‘Most deserving’ is not anything in the committee's lexicon. They are to rank the best teams in order, and that's what they do. Just keep that word in mind, ‘best’ teams.”

Therein lies the problem.

Three wins over Associated Press top-five opponents and nine wins against one of the toughest schedules in the country should be a strong enough résumé for the Longhorns to be considered one of the seven best at-large teams. The committee clinging to the Florida loss to justify why Texas should be on the outside looking in is a prime example of how the selection process doesn't end with a bracket of the best teams.

Don’t say you’re picking the best teams when Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame, as of now, doesn’t matter.

Don’t say you’re picking the best teams when Texas and Vanderbilt, both of whom went 6-2 in the toughest conference in the country, are likely headed to meaningless bowl games. At the same time, Sun Belt favorite James Madison and the winner of the AAC title game between North Texas and Tulane could be among the 12 teams left standing for a chance to win the national championship. Everyone loves the Cinderella story, but how (aside from the money that would go to the AAC and Sun Belt, respectively) is college football better for Group of Five teams getting sacrificed to a legit title contender from the Power Four?

Don’t say you’re picking the best teams when the Longhorns, who played a tougher schedule than any of the other current CFP candidates, appear to be disqualified from consideration solely based on accruing three losses.

Until the goalposts stop moving or the moment comes when the Big Ten and the SEC decide, by force, to dictate the terms of the CFP to the rest of college football (like it or not, it’s coming), we won’t get a field of the best teams deciding a national champion. We'll get whatever the committee decides it wants, criteria or guidelines be dammed.

User Feedback

Recommended Comments

Junior

Supporters
12 hours ago, Burnt Orange Horn said:

Which is exactly why total losses is the wrong criteria by which to classify teams.  Head to Head and Strength of Schedule must come first.  It is non critical thinkers who accept the Committee's losses first criteria.  Kind of like the good Germans in the 30s who justified accepting Hitler.

The committee ranks teams as it wants, then works backward to make it make sense. This is the fatal flaw of the Committee which invalidates all of its actions. It has negated the value of marquee match ups.  The consequence of invalidating such elevated competitive matchups means less CFB fans will be able to view them.  Which also means total revenue for the networks and the involved colleges will decline.

If Texas and other colleges with premier football programs will not speak against this obviously flawed model, then the networks must.  Kudos to Jeff for articulating the obvious flaws of this Committee of program fans and professional pundits expressing personal biases over sober evaluation.  The NCAA must do better or be kicked to the gutter by the power conference members.

 

 

Junior

Supporters

I think the fan base is split 80/20. Eighty percent know there's a screwjob happening but don’t know how to push back without sounding like complainers. The other 20% are indirectly defending the committee by using the lazy argument that "you shoulda beat Florida"—maybe they’re just fed up with the season or simply don’t get why a 9-3 team with a difficult in conference and out of conference schedule should get in over a 10-2 team that had it easy for most of the year. 

I agree with the play in game concept but its too late for that this year. However, it's not too late to force the committee to debate live on national TV this weekend. They should be made to explain their reasoning and hear the other side. Many respected media and sports figures—not from Texas—agree this ranking is a screwjob and needs fixing immediately.

Inspired73

Supporters
12 hours ago, marathon said:


The committee should be fired for ranking Notre Dame over Miami even though Miami beat ND and they both have 10-2 records. It’s as if Miami never played ND. Why even play the game.

Flawed logic implies there was logic to begin with. Their selection process is simple. They look at won loss records and pick the prettiest records.

 

I zapped the record information from Marathon's analysis for brevity.  I think he really hit the nail on the head....... the "committee" looks at won/loss records.  That is the flaw. College football is NOT the NFL!  The differences between the best and worst teams in the NFL are small.  Won/Loss records are a valid analysis.

This is not true in college ball.  There is a huge difference between the top 20 schools and the bottom 70 schools.  The Committee and other pundits that use only W/L which is insane.  

Finally, what makes the football tournament so frustrating is that it doesn't even follow the same logic format as all of the other NCAA sports.   I am sure Jeff or someone can elaborate, but the final tournament rankings do not value wins against cream puffs and assign a + value to games with the highest ranked teams. 

Basically, the people that control football are idiots.  Ultimately these guys will force a 48 school (or less) national league upon us.   This will kill the Texas States, James Madisons, etc.   I need to stop now.

 

Junior

Supporters

I believe that if you surveyed college football fans, media members, coaches, and other respected figures in the sport about who deserves a playoff spot this year—Texas or the other contenders (Notre Dame, Miami, Oklahoma, Alabama)—Texas would receive the most support. Their résumé stands out when you look at the combination of overall record, the difficulty of both their conference and non-conference schedules, and their head-to-head results.

Choosing Texas would also avoid setting a precedent that encourages teams to schedule weak non-conference opponents. And when you consider the context of their losses—falling to Ohio State by just one score on the road while outgaining them in total yards, and trailing Georgia by only four points in the fourth quarter—it strengthens their case even further. The committee’s framing of the Florida loss also seems misleading; Florida was far from a Division III-level opponent, had an elite roster, and nearly beat Georgia this season.

charlie990

Supporters

I keep seeing people pointing to the fact that the gators have 4 wins and that looks bad. Are we forgetting Florida has the 2nd hardest schedule in the nation? I know Billy was fired but if that team is remotely healthy they are probably favored against all but 1 big 12 team. 

charlie990

Supporters

Also, what are we rewarding when the 118th (JMU), 125th (North Texas) strength of schedules are getting in the CFP, lol.

Here for the Wins

Supporters
1 hour ago, charlie990 said:

I keep seeing people pointing to the fact that the gators have 4 wins and that looks bad. Are we forgetting Florida has the 2nd hardest schedule in the nation? I know Billy was fired but if that team is remotely healthy they are probably favored against all but 1 big 12 team. 

Forgetting?  No.  I’d wager people are unaware, don’t care.

 

1 hour ago, charlie990 said:

Also, what are we rewarding when the 118th (JMU), 125th (North Texas) strength of schedules are getting in the CFP, lol.

 I wasn’t aware.  I’ve paid quite a bit of attention, but you’re the first I’ve known give this any attention.

 

Thing is this year that Texas and Vandy have the potential to make waves, probably more so than many years.

So the “win it on the field” mantra isn’t exactly accurate this year.

Junior

Supporters

It's flawed logic and lazy group think dynamics combined with massive conflicts of interest and a legion of media muppets who willingly do the committees bidding. 

Thanos72

Supporters
On 12/3/2025 at 8:58 PM, LECHorns said:

I haven’t seen this mentioned yet, but what’s the upside of playing the big OOC games?  Aggies went on the road and beat ND…and yet they fell below TT, Oregon and Ole Miss with the same record.  It’s really hard for me to see why Aggies should be any lower than #4.
 

Miami obviously is seeing no upside.

Is the rationale for OU being so far ahead of us their win over Michigan? Seems dumb, but they’re the only school seeing any benefit from scheduling these games.

Making college football watchable? Good teams playing each other vs playing chess trying to get into the playoffs? Being competitive? Enjoy challenges? 🤷🏽‍♂️

  • Moderators
23 hours ago, charlie990 said:

I keep seeing people pointing to the fact that the gators have 4 wins and that looks bad. Are we forgetting Florida has the 2nd hardest schedule in the nation? I know Billy was fired but if that team is remotely healthy they are probably favored against all but 1 big 12 team. 

Don’t know you know that there’s no room for nuance in a world stuffed to the gills with hot takes?

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Add a comment...

Account

Navigation

Search

Search

Configure browser push notifications

Chrome (Android)
  1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
  2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
  3. Adjust your preference.
Chrome (Desktop)
  1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
  2. Select Site settings.
  3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.