Grading the Class (Using The Pipeline Methodology)

8 minutes ago, Bobby Burton said:

In my years following recruiting, I’ve seen top five classes not actually “fit” the needs of the program, either immediately or over the long haul.

Texas has done that a few times in my career. The Horns would need more guys on offensive line yet come up short. Or perhaps they needed more guys in the secondary and it just didn’t get addressed as well as it could have.

It’s typical, even for the very best classes, to have one or two positions that perhaps could have been better filled, or, worse, went completely unaddressed.

Additionally, with the proliferation of the transfer portal, I no longer think simply grading a recruiting class for its overall composition of players does the topic complete justice. Instead, I think we need to look more at whether or not a recruiting class successfully addresses the long-term needs of the program -- the pipeline of talent entering the program.

With all of that in mind, here’s my take on the 2024 Texas recruiting class, starting with the offense first, and whether or not the Horns adequately addressed their talent needs, both in term of quality and team needs.

Quarterback

Trey Owens

I'm a big believer in Owens'. I'm not sure whether he will ever be a top-line starter because of potential mobility issues. But his arm strength and accuracy are high-level - his arm is every bit as talented as both Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning. He will not look out of place in the Texas QB room.

Player Grade: A-

Did Texas fill the need at the position?

Unquestionably, yes. This is the exact type of developmental quarterback Sark needed to follow Manning. He's got the skills that are hardest to coach - the arm talent - but know he will need to work on his understanding of the offense and learning how to improve his maneuverability in the pocket.

Running Back

Christian Clark, Jerrick Gibson

I don't understand how Clark wasn't rated higher by national experts. Actually, I do have an inkling about it, I just don't agree with their reasoning. Clark's able to make people miss in the hole, is extremely tough and does not shy from contact. When Sark said in his signing day presser that Clark reminded him of Bijan Robinson, there's a reason the head coach went out on that limb. As for Gibson, he's a mix of brute size - he's truly going to be a 230-pound runner before he is finished in college - along with a strong feel for the game and workman-like attitude. Both of these guys are possible future pros. Clark actually reminds me of Tashard Choice as a running back.

Player Grade: A

Did Texas fill the need at the position?

Easily, so much so that some might think the talent in the room is almost gratuitous. But Sark looks like he's preparing to utilize backs, like they do in the NFL, with multiple ball carriers who have multiple skill sets. For example, the differences between CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue are very evident, yet Sark seemed determined to utilize both down the stretch when Jonathon Brooks was injured. If that's Sark's vision for the future - like he did with Reggie Bush and Lendale White at USC - then maybe the number of RBs isn't as gratuitous as it might otherwise seem.

In my years following recruiting, I’ve seen top five classes not actually “fit” the needs of the program.

Texas has done that a few times in my career. The Horns would need more guys on offensive line yet come up short. Or perhaps they needed more guys in the secondary and it just didn’t get addressed as well as it could have.

It’s typical, even for the very best classes, to have one or two positions that perhaps could have been better.

With all of that in mind, here’s my take on the 2024 Texas recruiting class, starting with the offense first, and whether or not the Horns adequately addressed their needs.

Quarterback

Trey Owens

I'm a big believer in Owens'. I'm not sure whether he will ever be a top-line starter because of potential mobility issues. But his arm strength and accuracy are high-level - his arm is every bit as talented as both Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning. He will not look out of place in the Texas QB room. Despite his relatively lower national rating by others, I'm not giving a QB who I think will play pro ball lower than a grade in the A range.

Player Grade: A-

Did Texas fill pipeline at the position?

Unquestionably, yes. This is the exact type of developmental quarterback Sark needed to follow Manning. He's got the skills that are hardest to coach - the arm talent - but know he will need to work on his understanding of the offense and learning how to improve his maneuverability in the pocket.

Pipeline Grade: A+

 

Running Back

Christian Clark, Jerrick Gibson

I don't understand how Clark wasn't rated higher by national experts. Actually, I do have an inkling about it, I just don't agree with their reasoning. Clark's able to make people miss in the hole, is extremely tough and does not shy from contact. When Sark said in his signing day presser that Clark reminded him of Bijan Robinson, there's a reason the head coach went out on that limb. As for Gibson, he's a mix of brute size - he's truly going to be a 230-pound runner before he is finished in college - along with a strong feel for the game and workman-like attitude. Both of these guys are possible future pros. Clark actually reminds me of Tashard Choice as a running back.

Player Grade: A-

Did Texas fill the need at the position?

Easily, so much so that some might think the talent in the room is almost gratuitous. But Sark looks like he's preparing to utilize backs, like they do in the NFL, with multiple ball carriers who have multiple skill sets. For example, the differences between CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue are very evident, yet Sark seemed determined to utilize both down the stretch when Jonathon Brooks was injured. If that's Sark's vision for the future - like he did with Reggie Bush and Lendale White at USC - then maybe the number of RBs isn't as gratuitous as it might otherwise seem.

Pipeline Grade: A+

 

Wide Receiver

Ryan Wingo, Aaron Butler, Parker Livingstone, Freddie Dubose Jr.

The only other receiver prospect in the same category as Wingo in the past 10 years is Xavier Worthy. Wingo is a legit five star, with legit speed, size, athleticism and plus ball skills. He's actually a better prospect than Worthy was IMO. Outside of Wingo, I'm not sure there is a likely No. 1 receiver in this group. Livingstone would be my next pick, but his injury history is now a thing we have to watch for. Dubose remained limited this year as well, also coming off of a knee injury. Butler is a bit of a wildcard for me. Some on the West Coast preferred him as a cornerback but he wants to play WR. I could see him challenging both Ryan Niblett and Deandre Moore for playing time in the slot.

Player Grade: B+

Did Texas fill the pipeline at the position?

I think the jury is out. Like I said, I think Wingo is a definite No. 1. I like the promise of Livingstone. The versatility of Butler is intriguing. And Dubose is a bit of a lottery ticket if he properly heals from his injury.

Pipeline Grade: B

 

Tight End

Jordan Washington

There is no player in this class that has a clearer path to success ahead of them. Washington, if he can continue to develop his body and his skills, is the dual-threat tight end that Texas and Sarkisian clearly covet. But we're also talking about someone who has been playing multiple sports most of his life, just stopping basketball a season ago. That means his body likely has farther to go in its development. But a year from now? I like Washington a lot. A whole lot. He could be the steal of the class IMO.

Player Grade: A

Did Texas fill the pipeline at the position?

Yes. My only question, should Texas have even taken another tight end prospect? Perhaps. But the Horns opted to address the short-term need in the portal, in part because of exactly what Washington might bring to the table long-term.

Pipeline Grade: B+

 

Offensive Line

Daniel Cruz, Brandon Baker, Nate Kibble

Player Grade: A

Baker is a future starter and likely a future pro. It may not be this year or even next yearn when he contributes to the Horns, but so long as he stays healthy, he is as sure a bet to play pro football as any signee in this class. Cruz is an anomaly of sorts because he's such a menace as a run blocker - his natural strength is off the charts. He's also a fairly cerebral player. The only question surrounding his play will be pass blocking. Kibble's body type and arm length are ideal and Atascocita offensive lineman have had a really good history of turning out (Sam Cosmi, Kenyon Green, Kam Dewberry). Pass blocking looks like it will come natural to him.

Did Texas fill the pipeline at the position?

Given the Horns signed 11 OLs in the previous two classes, we knew this would be a lower year on numbers. Overall, I think Texas did a nice job of spreading out the numbers - one true tackle, one true guard and one combo center/guard. Could Texas have used another blue chip prospect at either guard or tackle? Sure. But, with this class, Kyle Flood continues to move the OL in the right direction - with size, athleticism and talent.

Pipeline Grade: B

 

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I like this. My biggest complaint about recruiting rankings is it is just a grade on overall talent. In theory you could have 20 5 star QBs, RBs, and WRs and have the #1 class, despite having nobody to block or tackle. Would love to see the Team rankings to start factoring in the distribution of talent. Even better would be an additional 3/4 year recruiting rank with position group grades. 

5 minutes ago, codaxx said:

I like this. My biggest complaint about recruiting rankings is it is just a grade on overall talent. In theory you could have 20 5 star QBs, RBs, and WRs and have the #1 class, despite having nobody to block or tackle. Would love to see the Team rankings to start factoring in the distribution of talent. Even better would be an additional 3/4 year recruiting rank with position group grades. 

Agree. Class Breakdown (by year) and Class Distribution (by position) needs to be a thing.

Hey Bobby I really appreciate this perspective, I had never thought of looking at it that way before. Great stuff.

Well done Bobby! I like the way you laid this out. 
 

It’s obviously hard to predict how kids pan out at the college level. There’s a ton of distractions and new things to get used to. I think the culture that Sark and staff has built in terms of emphasis on enrolling early, being laser focused and putting in hard work helps instill that mindset early on in the players and, as a result helps minimizes the “misses”. The relatively low number of transfers out of the program I think shows Sark and staff are hitting at a pretty high rate. 

Great read Bobby!  Love the insight and perspective!

IMO,  Butler is going to be one of the gems in this class. His film is outstanding.

7 minutes ago, Sirhornsalot said:

IMO,  Butler is going to be one of the gems in this class. His film is outstanding.

 

Butler is a “football” player

One thought on the WR pipeline - don't you think what we took in the portal had an impact on what we took from high school? Maybe it's a "chicken-or-the-egg" situation, but it seems like we were fine with taking a flyer on some guys with upside because we pulled in so much help from the portal. Plus, the portal is always littered with good WR. It's the position I worry about least when it comes to getting the right guys from high school. That we can ignore the room, but busts seem less costly especially at a school like Texas that is an attractive destination. 

3 minutes ago, Park Gothic said:

One thought on the WR pipeline - don't you think what we took in the portal had an impact on what we took from high school? Maybe it's a "chicken-or-the-egg" situation, but it seems like we were fine with taking a flyer on some guys with upside because we pulled in so much help from the portal. Plus, the portal is always littered with good WR. It's the position I worry about least when it comes to getting the right guys from high school. That we can ignore the room, but busts seem less costly especially at a school like Texas that is an attractive destination. 

Well, the high school guys committed - all except one of them - before any of the portal guys did.

To your point, I would say I am less concerned about the WR pipeline than perhaps any other position on the team (or on any college football team), and that is because of the talent available in the portal as you suggest.

6 hours ago, codaxx said:

I like this. My biggest complaint about recruiting rankings is it is just a grade on overall talent. In theory you could have 20 5 star QBs, RBs, and WRs and have the #1 class, despite having nobody to block or tackle. Would love to see the Team rankings to start factoring in the distribution of talent. Even better would be an additional 3/4 year recruiting rank with position group grades. 

I agree. Just look at A&m’s #1 class a few years ago. How many of them are still there? How much did they contribute? Did they elevate the program? 

I really like this Bobby. I've always thought after a coach's third, maybe second (after the roster is rebuilt), recruiting class, recruiting for fit is key for sustained success. Fans may not like that a coach takes a lower ranked player, but that player may be the exact fit that is needed for the pipeline imo.

20 hours ago, Sirhornsalot said:

IMO,  Butler is going to be one of the gems in this class. His film is outstanding.

 

I really like Butler's combination of attitude and performance. Think he's going to be a great addition.

22 hours ago, codaxx said:

I like this. My biggest complaint about recruiting rankings is it is just a grade on overall talent. In theory you could have 20 5 star QBs, RBs, and WRs and have the #1 class, despite having nobody to block or tackle. Would love to see the Team rankings to start factoring in the distribution of talent. Even better would be an additional 3/4 year recruiting rank with position group grades. 

I like this breakdown for the obvious reason, "Did you address and meet your immediate needs?" If you did, good. If you didn't, put the kool-aid down.

I like the "Scholarship Distribution" page on that other website, which graphically highlights the notion of having to use 18 & 19 year old kids to compete with 22-23 year old men.  It facilitates matching longer term needs w/ the relative strength of HS position groups from year to year. The OL build since Flood got here is going to pay dividends over and over.