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Hey everyone, Payton here, intern with On Texas Football. With the new CFP Rankings dropping last night, I wanted to see how the landscape shapes up, compiling the teams into tiers, with their remaining schedule where applicable. Here is where Texas stands and who Longhorn fans should be rooting against the rest of the way: Texas sits at No. 6 with a 7-2 record. Here is the top 12 as it stands: Georgia, Utah, Alabama, UCLA, Notre Dame, Texas, Miami, Tennessee, Indiana, BYU, Kentucky and Texas Tech. The SEC has five of the top 11. The biggest mover was Indiana, which fell from No. 4 to No. 9 without playing a game. The landscape is good for Texas but not safe. One of the 12 spots goes to the best Group of Five champion, and right now that is No. 24 Boise State. That means the real cut line sits at No. 11, and there are seven teams ranked between No. 8 and No. 21 that can still potentially play their way past a two or three loss Texas team in the committee's eyes. ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor gives the Longhorns a 76% chance to make the field. This Saturday can decide most of it. If Texas beats LSU, that number jumps to 95% and LSU is finished at less than 1%. From there Texas could even drop one of its last two games and still sit around 85%. If Texas loses to LSU, the number falls to 58% and LSU climbs back to 37%. Texas would be 7-3 with no room left for error. Winning the last two would get the Longhorns back to 82%, at that point the committee is comparing resumes, and what the teams below do starts to matter a lot. I separated the teams in the race into tiers to make it more digestable. All But Locks: Georgia, Utah, Alabama and Miami. All four sit at about 90% or better. They are not worth rooting against because one loss probably does not knock any of them out. Likely In: UCLA, Notre Dame and Indiana. It would take an unlikely upset or two to push any of them out. UCLA is at 61% with Michigan and USC still on the schedule, and Indiana is at 75%, right around where Texas is sitting. Threats: Tennessee, BYU, Kentucky, Texas Tech, Wake Forest, USC and LSU. These teams are fighting for the same spots Texas is. Their odds range from 14% for USC to 52% for Wake Forest, but most of them climb past 90% if they win out. Every one of them is a loss away from likely elimination. Bubble Threats: Houston, Iowa, Oregon, South Carolina, Arizona and SMU. One more loss for each and Texas can stop worrying about them. Texas also holds the head to head over Ole Miss and Ohio State, who both already have three losses, which is why they weren't included. Outside of Texas and LSU, here are the five games to watch this weekend. Tennessee at Texas A&M. Root for the Aggies just this once. Tennessee dropping to the 9-3 cut line would ensure on Selection Sunday that they wouldn't take up a spot for us due to our H2H win. A loss drops the Vols from 49% to 23%, and ESPN is giving A&M about a 42% chance to do it. Florida at Kentucky. Root for Florida. Kentucky is only at 30% now, but the Wildcats jump to 99% if they win out, so this is the week that can end it. A loss takes them to 10%. A Gators win also makes the Texas schedule look stronger, which might matter when comparing resumes in the committee room. USC at Indiana. Root for Indiana. It might seem backwards to root for a team ranked near Texas, but a USC win wouldn't eliminate Indiana. Even with a loss to USC, Indiana would not be out of it. ESPN would still give the Hoosiers a 34% chance, and that climbs to 46% if they win their last two. The Trojans would jump from 14% to 48% with UCLA still on the schedule. An Indiana win drops USC to 4% and takes a team off the docket. Wake Forest at SMU. Root for SMU. Wake has the best odds of any Threat at 52%, and Miami is the favorite to take the ACC’s automatic spot, which means Wake is competing with Texas for an at large bid. A loss drops the Demon Deacons to 20%. Texas Tech at Oklahoma State. Root for Oklahoma State. The No. 25 Cowboys are at home and favored by 3.5 points, so this is one a Threat is actually expected to lose. Tech is 8-1 and would climb to 96% by winning out (although that may imply a CCG win), but a loss cuts the Red Raiders from 40% to 18%. Also keep an eye on Baylor at BYU, where a loss would drop the Cougars from 41% to 5%. Which of these five games matters most for Texas? And if the Longhorns lose Saturday, do you still think they get in?

Great story, really demonstrates the huge advantage that we enjoy being in Austin instead of hick towns like College Station, Starkville, Lubbock, etc.......

I know we have been inconsistent and the team def surprised me last week with the offense, but its crazy that everyone is making it sound like LSU is a guarantee win. Even Josh Pate that has picked against texas multiple times and still continues to do it.

Good stuff @Bobby Burton Another key off season question… Will Sark make the move to upgrade the OL by replacing Flood? PK was replaced (though he didn’t display any grievous shortcomings) in an effort to produce an elite defense - mission accomplished. For two years we have seen too many negative gains in the running game, too many times had our QB running for his life, and witnessed unresolved OL issues continuing through most of the season. This type of performance doesn’t seem like the best way to attract and retain elite skill players on offense. OR win national championships. This off season it seems like it is time to go to the “coaching portal” for a new OL coach. That seems like the prudent move - or am I missing something?

i'll add: you need to do cafe du monde and eat the beignets on a bench in jackson square. but...if you really just need a beignet and cafe au lait fix, the location in city park is usually much less crowded and the park is nice.

If schools were required to hold athletes to the same transfer rules as regular students it wouldn’t be like that.

I would suggest we look at 2 things: Texas based players that have excelled and would love to come home for their last year.....Makuba, Trey Moore, Cryer, Brad Spence Punch (BB), Swann (Softball). Since we recruit nationally, there are so many Texas players that we didn't have room for (Leanord Moore, Lacy at Ole Miss, Anthony Evans) Great all conference players on average teams - Biles, Cryer, Geffrard, Mascoe Spending NIL on offensive lineman that sit on the bench for 2 years is not the best use of resources

With an emphasis on finding starters in the secondary sounds like the Jonah Williams experience is over.

jacques-imo's is a fun spot. my sister in law used to bartend there. long wait, but the owner will have a drink with you. pascal's manale - the brennans bought it, i believe. they've got a dude shucking oysters at the bar in the lobby while you wait. the barbecue shrimp are the deal. don't bother with anything else. camellia grill for breakfast. better than mother's. columns hotel for drinks after dinner. cochon is reliably good. brigsten's is excellent if you can get a table. brunch at oceana grill. they make a lot of the breakfast recipes from petunia's (which died shortly before or after katrina). crab cake eggs benedict and a mimosa. bananas foster french toast. all the crepes. i miss uglesich's (fried seafood dive that closed pre-katrina when they retired), eleven 79 (veal porterhouse was a game changer), and dick & jenny's (they relocated to buffalo ny for reasons i do not understand). if you are driving, central pizza, pop's po-boys (debris and oyster surf and turf poboy), and bon temps grill are all fantastic. afterward, buy a cheap cooler and load it up with frozen goodies and cracklin at best stop meat market in scott. their smoked boudin is absolutely killer. the stuffed pork chops are great too. i prefer their stuff over don's.

I get the same error message often (but not always). PC, Windows 11, FireFox browser with UBlock Origin ad blocker ...

I even deleted the app, restarted my phone, then reinstalled the app. It didn't resolve the issue

Getting Masunas back would be ideal. Winston doesn’t seem to have his body in the right place whenever he makes a catch. It takes him an extra step to get moving upfield and that extra step allows defenders to stop the YAC.

That makes so little sense. Gotta be more than 17 guys who need development and also pick a program for old fashioned reasons.

Miss State +3.5 Vanderbilt +17.5 Texas A&M +2.5 Missouri +14.5 Ole Miss -2.5 Florida +3.5 Texas +4.5 (just moved) South Carolina -8.5

Oof

Nuts!

Friday night at Erin Rose in NOLA seems to be the plan and spot...

I love when the entire country hates us.... Embrace it.....

Unreal

Me too, on android. I can react to OP, but not follow on comments . I logged out and back in, no luck.

Oh boy lol

Man I just told a friend that I’d gotten into recruiting last year the same thing. I rarely read any updates about high school recruiting anymore.

Tbh I find it kinda hard to feel bad for the SEC teams in these conversations because they played a massive part in super conferences even being a thing. You made your bed, now you have to lie in it.