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Most Muted - @Blake Munroe
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I think Simon is expected back. I have not seen anything from Clark that would make me want him back, but part of that could be related to his recovery. Either way, I don't see how both come back, because that would be eight in there counting Niblett.
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OTF Premium 2025-26 Portal Tracker Thread
Bunk Moreland replied to CJ Vogel's topic in On Texas Football Forum
I’m honestly surprised they haven’t as bad as their offense and QB situation is -
OTF Premium 2025-26 Portal Tracker Thread
Shmatt replied to CJ Vogel's topic in On Texas Football Forum
Kinda sounds like Matthew Golden when he left Houston -
OTF Premium 2025-26 Portal Tracker Thread
TexasFanatic replied to CJ Vogel's topic in On Texas Football Forum
Would love to lure TJ Moore or Bryant Wesco into the portal. -
OTF Premium 2025-26 Portal Tracker Thread
TexasFanatic replied to CJ Vogel's topic in On Texas Football Forum
Not “all in” -
OTF Premium 2025-26 Portal Tracker Thread
pinkman_90 replied to CJ Vogel's topic in On Texas Football Forum
The anti Jordan Whittington -
OTF Premium 2025-26 Portal Tracker Thread
CJ Vogel replied to CJ Vogel's topic in On Texas Football Forum
There it is. I think Vaughn’s a stud who was dealing with poor QB play all year. - Today
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john kimbro joined the community
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^^^time to calibrate that meter
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Is that sarcasm? If so, I agree. I haven't been impressed, either with the recruiting or the on-field results. For some reason, Sark is protecting him.
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Ergo, do we want Harding or Newsome? On a side note, I has no idea Michigan picked up Kerry Coombs. I'm guessing he doesn't send Christmas cards to Ryan Day.
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OTF Premium 2025-26 Portal Tracker Thread
Joe Zura replied to CJ Vogel's topic in On Texas Football Forum
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OTF Premium Little update on Jadan Baugh (7:05 CT)
jeffrey aronson replied to Gerry Hamilton's topic in On Texas Football Forum
My thoughts exactly. Texas will be a top 5 team in 2026. Florida will be ???? -
jeffrey aronson joined the community
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OTF Premium 2025-26 Portal Tracker Thread
Realist Horn replied to CJ Vogel's topic in On Texas Football Forum
UCLA or Texas to showcase your skillset? -
OTF Premium 2025-26 Portal Tracker Thread
HenryJames replied to CJ Vogel's topic in On Texas Football Forum
Figure these JMU guys might be following their coach to UCLA. -
Meant to also include that pretty sure Lee is LDS
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OTF Premium 2025-26 Portal Tracker Thread
Bunk Moreland replied to CJ Vogel's topic in On Texas Football Forum
I hope we take a long look at him. Explosive player. 6.6 YPC for the season and he’s played well against P4 competition. Ran for 100+ on 6 YPC in the playoff game against Oregon. I think he’d be a great “lightning” complement to a Baugh or other power back. -
Whittingham is part of LDS and that’s a substantial reason he was so consistently formidable at Utah. As we know, schools in Utah have a solid pipeline of Polynesian descendants so this is really not a huge surprise; honestly one of the best hires in terms of retaining Lee
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OTF Premium 2025-26 Portal Tracker Thread
Realist Horn replied to CJ Vogel's topic in On Texas Football Forum
Don’t know a lot about the competition he faced. He went for 110 yards on 17 against Oregon (3 reception for 18 yards) -
BRH4 joined the community
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Exactly. They don't have to be RB1 and bet the house on them, but they need to at least be in the rotation imo... 🤘
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🤣🤣🤣 🤘
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Buck Travis started following Stay in school or declare early: Dr. Grok's analysis
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As an old school SWC fan (who did all I could to stay in school) my gut tells me that unless you're a 1st or 2nd round pick, you should stay in school. So I bounced the risk/rewards off of Grok: For a college football player projected as a **Round 3 or 4 pick**, the decision to declare early for the NFL Draft involves a balanced but risky **risk-reward calculation**. The financial upside is meaningful compared to staying in school, but the career longevity and success rates in those mid-rounds are modest, and returning to college can significantly boost draft stock (and thus earnings) while providing other benefits in the NIL era. ### Rewards of Declaring Early (Going Pro) - **Immediate Money**: Rookie contracts are slotted and fully guaranteed for most practical purposes in early rounds. - A typical Round 3 pick in recent drafts (e.g., mid-round) signs a 4-year deal worth ~$5-6 million total, with ~$1-2 million guaranteed (mostly signing bonus). - Round 4: ~$4-5 million total, with ~$800k-$1.2 million guaranteed. - You get paid right away (signing bonus upfront), start your NFL clock, and have a shot at proving yourself for a second contract. - **Professional Opportunity**: If you're projected Day 2 (Rounds 3-4), you're likely talented enough to get drafted and compete for a roster spot. Many mid-round picks become contributors or starters (e.g., ~30-40% chance of becoming a solid starter in Round 3, dropping to ~15-20% in Round 4 based on historical data). - **Avoid Risk of Decline**: One bad senior season, injury in college, or stock drop could push you to Round 5-7 (much lower pay) or undrafted. ### Risks of Declaring Early - **Short Career Potential**: Average NFL career for mid-round picks is ~4-6 years, but many don't last beyond their rookie deal. - Round 3 picks average ~50-60 games played historically; Round 4 closer to 40-50. - Only ~40-50% of Day 2/3 picks play out their full rookie contract as regulars; many are cut early. - If you flame out, you've forfeited college eligibility—no return option. - **Limited Upside Compared to Rising**: Mid-round money is good but not life-changing like Rounds 1-2. If you stay and dominate, you could jump to Day 1/early Day 2 (e.g., $10-30M+ contracts). - **Opportunity Cost**: In the NIL era, top players earn $500k-$2M+ per year in college via endorsements/collectives. Staying often means similar (or better) short-term cash without the NFL grind/injury risk. ### Benefits of Staying in College - **Boost Draft Stock**: Many players projected mid-rounds return and become top-100 or even first-round picks (common examples: improved film, leadership, stats lead to higher grades). - NFL Advisory Committee often recommends staying for projected Round 3+ grades to improve positioning. - **NIL Earnings + Development**: Make serious money now (often comparable to mid-round rookie salaries for stars), finish degree, refine skills, and reduce injury risk in pro-style offenses. - **Fewer Early Declarations Overall**: Post-NIL, underclassmen entries have dropped ~50%—most who declare now are projected Rounds 1-3, meaning mid-round projections increasingly stay. - **Fallback**: Degree + NIL resume provides security if NFL doesn't pan out long-term. ### Overall Assessment - **If Projected Firmly Round 3**: Lean toward going pro—the money is solid (~$5M+ deal), and waiting risks falling lower. - **If Borderline Round 3/4 or Lower**: Strongly consider staying—history shows big jumps possible, and NIL makes college lucrative. - The NFL is high-risk regardless: Even drafted players have ~3-6 year average careers, with mid-rounders often needing to fight for spots. Advice from scouts/GMs: Get feedback from the NFL College Advisory Committee. If they say "Round 3 or better," go. If "return to school," the data backs staying for most mid-tier projections. It's rarely a slam-dunk either way—personal development, injury history, and finances (NIL offers) tip the scale.
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