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Texas Soccer- The New Era on the Horizon
Don’t love that this is gonna come down to PKs once again
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For Texas, team success against LSU rooted in first-down efficiency on offense
I could've gotten into a lot of different stats for this game, but I've been fascinated by the first-down numbers. Texas wasn't nearly as explosive on first down as the offense has been at times this season, but taking smaller bites has led to the offense being more efficient overall.
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Del Conte Refutes Rumor
Alexa, play Obsessed by Mariah Carey
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For Texas, team success against LSU rooted in first-down efficiency on offense
AUSTIN, Texas — Steve Sarkisian didn’t explicitly say he’s toning down his aggressive approach on offense to put an elite Texas defense in the best position to succeed. Still, on Monday, when asked about kicking a field goal on fourth-and-1 from the Missouri 9-yard line late in the first half of last Saturday’s 34-20 road win, Sarkisian acknowledged that playing the long game was the right move. Instead of gambling and potentially delivering a haymaker, Sarkisian didn’t want to give the Tigers the momentum that would’ve come with forcing a turnover on downs. “I felt like our best football was still in front of us,” Sarkisian said. “I think about the 10 points they scored in the first half: the first drive, we get a hands-of-the-face penalty, we get a defensive pass interference penalty, they score on fourth-and-2. The next drive, when they get the field goal, we get a facemask penalty. It was like, if we can just settle in defensively — and I felt like there was some missed ops for us offensively — that we could kind of take control of the game that way.” Gianni Spetic’s 27-yard field goal tied the game at halftime, 10-10. With Ryan Niblett’s fumbled kickoff return contributing to the 11 plays Missouri ran across two possessions before the Texas offense took the field in the second half, Sarkisian’s patience and willingness to take the points paid off for the Longhorns. To replicate the results, Sarkisian’s patience must travel with No. 6 Texas (7-2, 4-2 SEC) when it faces No. 21 LSU (6-3, 3-3) at Tiger Stadium on Saturday (6:30 p.m., ABC). Sarkisian’s mindset shift was most noticeable on first down, which set the tone for arguably the offense’s most efficient wire-to-wire performance of the season. While Texas’ average of 5.1 yards per play on first down was its third-lowest of the season (4.7 against Ohio State and 4.7 against Tennessee), a season-high first-down passing rate of 54.8 percent (17 of the offense’s 31 first-down snaps were pass attempts) helped the Longhorns stay on schedule. Sarkisian got away from hunting first downs on early downs (four of 21 first downs occurred on first down, a season-low 19 percent) and, although the offense faced its second-highest to-go distance on third down this season (8.2 yards), Texas had its third-highest third-down conversion rate (6-for-13, 46.2 percent); third-lowest three-and-out rate (2-of-13, 15.4 percent) and third-highest scoring drive percentage (46.2 percent, with six of 13 drives netting points) through nine games. Arch Manning, named SEC Offensive Player of the Week after a 28-for-38 day, with 297 yards and three touchdowns against the Tigers, set season highs for first-down completions (12) and passing yards (130). Sarkisian lauded Manning's ability to keep the offense ahead of the chains by checking down to his tight ends and running backs. “I know sometimes those aren't always the sexiest plays, but you throw a completion to your running back on first-and-10, he gets six yards, you play second-and-4,” Sarkisian said. “That's winning football.” The Longhorns recorded an explosive play (a rushing attempt of 10 or more yards and a pass completion of 15 or more yards) on nine of their 69 snaps, a season-low rate of 13 percent. Nevertheless, Sarkisian’s decision to value efficiency over explosiveness eventually paid off, with Manning and the offense making their big plays count. Texas’ four explosive plays in the second half (including a 25-yard touchdown reception by Jermaine Bishop Jr. and Raleek Brown’s 23-yard touchdown catch) were its most this season against a Power Four opponent and its highest total in any second half since the season opener against Texas State (six). “I also thought he was aggressive and took his shots when they were there,” Sarkisian said of Manning, who completed three of his seven pass attempts that traveled 20 yards or more downfield (according to Pro Football Focus) for 42 yards and two touchdowns. Instead of forcing the issue, Manning’s willingness to dump the ball down combined with how effectively the Longhorns ran the football (105 sack-adjusted rushing yards and 3.8 yards per attempt) created explosive play opportunities. “There were shots there, but I also thought he was really efficient,” Sarkisian said. Those numbers are great for the offense. If they can be replicated, they'll help the defense against one of the nation's top offenses on Saturday. With Texas running a season-high 50.7 percent of its offensive plays on the opponent’s side of the field (35 of 69), the defense benefitted from rare wins in field position and play differential. Auburn’s defense is the only unit in the SEC that’s been on the field more than the Longhorn defense in conference play, with Texas defending 71.7 snaps per game against SEC foes. The Longhorns were on the field for 68 snaps against Missouri, with 39.7 percent of those plays (27 of 68) coming on Texas’ side of the field; none of the Tigers’ 20 snaps after scoring on a 72-yard touchdown with 4:02 remaining in the third quarter occurred in Longhorn territory. Texas heads into the LSU game with the largest negative play differential of any SEC team in conference games. On average, league opponents run 11.3 more plays per game than the Longhorns, with Florida’s plus-31 play differential at DKR highlighting how much Texas has struggled to play complementary football. LSU hasn’t had those issues, leading the SEC in play differential for the season (plus-179, plus-19.9 plays per game) and ranking second in conference play (plus-50, plus-8.3 plays per game). It will be a tough challenge for the Longhorns to keep Sam Leavitt and the Tigers’ offense off the field and out of the end zone without giving up short fields or playing sudden-change defense after a turnover. Although Texas has had issues taking care of the football in 2026 (only Oklahoma and Vanderbilt have committed more turnovers among SEC offenses than the Longhorns’ 14), Sarkisian showing more patience than Lane Kiffin will go a long way toward picking up what would be a monumental road win. Whereas LSU is one of 35 FBS offenses to attempt a fourth-down conversion at least 20 times this season (65 percent conversion rate ranks No. 30 nationally), only three SEC offenses have tried to move the chains on fourth down fewer times than Texas, which has tried to convert a league-low five times on fourth down in conference play. Sarkisian is willing to lean on an elite defense to position the Longhorns for a return to the College Football Playoff while continuing to find the right buttons to push on offense. “It's not hard for me to kick a field goal or to punt,” Sarkisian said. “Hey, do I like going for it? Sure. I think it's a sign. I think it sends a great message to our team that we believe in them. But at the same notion, I don't want them to feel like their coach is reckless, that he's trying to put us in the best position to be successful and win the game. That's what we try to do.”
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For Texas, team success against LSU rooted in first-down efficiency on offense
AUSTIN, Texas — Steve Sarkisian didn’t explicitly say he’s toning down his aggressive approach on offense to put an elite Texas defense in the best position to succeed. Still, on Monday, when asked about kicking a field goal on fourth-and-1 from the Missouri 9-yard line late in the first half of last Saturday’s 34-20 road win, Sarkisian acknowledged that playing the long game was the right move. Instead of gambling and potentially delivering a haymaker, Sarkisian didn’t want to give the Tigers the momentum that would’ve come with forcing a turnover on downs. “I felt like our best football was still in front of us,” Sarkisian said. “I think about the 10 points they scored in the first half: the first drive, we get a hands-of-the-face penalty, we get a defensive pass interference penalty, they score on fourth-and-2. The next drive, when they get the field goal, we get a facemask penalty. It was like, if we can just settle in defensively — and I felt like there was some missed ops for us offensively — that we could kind of take control of the game that way.” Gianni Spetic’s 27-yard field goal tied the game at halftime, 10-10. With Ryan Niblett’s fumbled kickoff return contributing to the 11 plays Missouri ran across two possessions before the Texas offense took the field in the second half, Sarkisian’s patience and willingness to take the points paid off for the Longhorns. To replicate the results, Sarkisian’s patience must travel with No. 6 Texas (7-2, 4-2 SEC) when it faces No. 21 LSU (6-3, 3-3) at Tiger Stadium on Saturday (6:30 p.m., ABC). Sarkisian’s mindset shift was most noticeable on first down, which set the tone for arguably the offense’s most efficient wire-to-wire performance of the season. While Texas’ average of 5.1 yards per play on first down was its third-lowest of the season (4.7 against Ohio State and 4.7 against Tennessee), a season-high first-down passing rate of 54.8 percent (17 of the offense’s 31 first-down snaps were pass attempts) helped the Longhorns stay on schedule. Sarkisian got away from hunting first downs on early downs (four of 21 first downs occurred on first down, a season-low 19 percent) and, although the offense faced its second-highest to-go distance on third down this season (8.2 yards), Texas had its third-highest third-down conversion rate (6-for-13, 46.2 percent); third-lowest three-and-out rate (2-of-13, 15.4 percent) and third-highest scoring drive percentage (46.2 percent, with six of 13 drives netting points) through nine games. Arch Manning, named SEC Offensive Player of the Week after a 28-for-38 day, with 297 yards and three touchdowns against the Tigers, set season highs for first-down completions (12) and passing yards (130). Sarkisian lauded Manning's ability to keep the offense ahead of the chains by checking down to his tight ends and running backs. “I know sometimes those aren't always the sexiest plays, but you throw a completion to your running back on first-and-10, he gets six yards, you play second-and-4,” Sarkisian said. “That's winning football.” The Longhorns recorded an explosive play (a rushing attempt of 10 or more yards and a pass completion of 15 or more yards) on nine of their 69 snaps, a season-low rate of 13 percent. Nevertheless, Sarkisian’s decision to value efficiency over explosiveness eventually paid off, with Manning and the offense making their big plays count. Texas’ four explosive plays in the second half (including a 25-yard touchdown reception by Jermaine Bishop Jr. and Raleek Brown’s 23-yard touchdown catch) were its most this season against a Power Four opponent and its highest total in any second half since the season opener against Texas State (six). “I also thought he was aggressive and took his shots when they were there,” Sarkisian said of Manning, who completed three of his seven pass attempts that traveled 20 yards or more downfield (according to Pro Football Focus) for 42 yards and two touchdowns. Instead of forcing the issue, Manning’s willingness to dump the ball down combined with how effectively the Longhorns ran the football (105 sack-adjusted rushing yards and 3.8 yards per attempt) created explosive play opportunities. “There were shots there, but I also thought he was really efficient,” Sarkisian said. Those numbers are great for the offense. If they can be replicated, they'll help the defense against one of the nation's top offenses on Saturday. With Texas running a season-high 50.7 percent of its offensive plays on the opponent’s side of the field (35 of 69), the defense benefitted from rare wins in field position and play differential. Auburn’s defense is the only unit in the SEC that’s been on the field more than the Longhorn defense in conference play, with Texas defending 71.7 snaps per game against SEC foes. The Longhorns were on the field for 68 snaps against Missouri, with 39.7 percent of those plays (27 of 68) coming on Texas’ side of the field; none of the Tigers’ 20 snaps after scoring on a 72-yard touchdown with 4:02 remaining in the third quarter occurred in Longhorn territory. Texas heads into the LSU game with the largest negative play differential of any SEC team in conference games. On average, league opponents run 11.3 more plays per game than the Longhorns, with Florida’s plus-31 play differential at DKR highlighting how much Texas has struggled to play complementary football. LSU hasn’t had those issues, leading the SEC in play differential for the season (plus-179, plus-19.9 plays per game) and ranking second in conference play (plus-50, plus-8.3 plays per game). It will be a tough challenge for the Longhorns to keep Sam Leavitt and the Tigers’ offense off the field and out of the end zone without giving up short fields or playing sudden-change defense after a turnover. Although Texas has had issues taking care of the football in 2026 (only Oklahoma and Vanderbilt have committed more turnovers among SEC offenses than the Longhorns’ 14), Sarkisian showing more patience than Lane Kiffin will go a long way toward picking up what would be a monumental road win. Whereas LSU is one of 35 FBS offenses to attempt a fourth-down conversion at least 20 times this season (65 percent conversion rate ranks No. 30 nationally), only three SEC offenses have tried to move the chains on fourth down fewer times than Texas, which has tried to convert a league-low five times on fourth down in conference play. Sarkisian is willing to lean on an elite defense to position the Longhorns for a return to the College Football Playoff while continuing to find the right buttons to push on offense. “It's not hard for me to kick a field goal or to punt,” Sarkisian said. “Hey, do I like going for it? Sure. I think it's a sign. I think it sends a great message to our team that we believe in them. But at the same notion, I don't want them to feel like their coach is reckless, that he's trying to put us in the best position to be successful and win the game. That's what we try to do.”
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Del Conte Refutes Rumor
Yesterday
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Texas basketball 2026-27 season thread
- Texas basketball 2026-27 season thread
UConn hit with key injury ….- CFP: The Bye Week Penalty?!?
The dreaded 14th data point- Interesting Stats: LSU Defense
Thanks. This is great. The non- ranked probably speaks to the quality of some of the out of conf teams UT played. For example Tx st and UTSA are much better quality vs some of teams LSU faced (Mcneese and La tech).- Interesting Stats: LSU Defense
Of course. I can’t take all the credit though. This topic was inspired by @NashTalksTexas on Twitter/X. Didn’t want to share paywall info here so I created it by pulling the datapoint info myself.- ESPN: Story on Texas Tech & Cody Campbell
- Steve Sarkisian Thursday press conference updates
I don't think we are physical team running the ball. On defense, sure.- Interesting Stats: LSU Defense
This is actually a really great method for analyzing those stats. Thanks for sharing!- CFP: The Bye Week Penalty?!?
College Football Playoff (CFP) Selection Committee Chairman Hunter Yurachek stated that Indiana dropped five spots to No. 9 in the rankings because the Hoosiers were "a victim of having a bye week at the wrong time."- Interesting Stats: LSU Defense
Great numbers! Appreciate the work. Thanks- Interesting Stats: LSU Defense
Plugged some numbers into ChatGPT and found out the following. LSU is a talented defense, don’t get me wrong, but their numbers are highly skewed by their performances against unranked opponents. Oddly enough, Texas has been better at stopping the run vs ranked than unranked teams. Additionally, against current CFP ranked teams, LSU allows a red zone TD rate of 62.5% (10/16) while Texas allows 36.4% (4/11)- College Football Live Thread: Week 11
- ESPN: Story on Texas Tech & Cody Campbell
His term is up on 1/31/27. I would lean against her reappointing him, given that he was so tight with Ken Paxton. But I guess we'll see what happens.- Texas basketball 2026-27 season thread
Marcus Spears … haha https://www.instagram.com/reel/DfprJfeRgD3/?cplk=MTVjZG9neTllcXhmNw==- Texas basketball 2026-27 season thread
- Texas-LSU prediction thread 🤘🐯
Texas 20 LSU 10- Tell us what you really think, Bobby
Guys it’s the Monster Energy big xii they earned that title and are more than just a conference it’s a dictatorship- Mr. November: Arch is the Best Late Season QB in the Country
But good article, thanks- Mr. November: Arch is the Best Late Season QB in the Country
Rat poison - Texas basketball 2026-27 season thread
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