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john kimbro joined the community
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^^^time to calibrate that meter
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Is that sarcasm? If so, I agree. I haven't been impressed, either with the recruiting or the on-field results. For some reason, Sark is protecting him.
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Ergo, do we want Harding or Newsome? On a side note, I has no idea Michigan picked up Kerry Coombs. I'm guessing he doesn't send Christmas cards to Ryan Day.
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OTF Premium 2025-26 Portal Tracker Thread
Joe Zura replied to CJ Vogel's topic in On Texas Football Forum
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OTF Premium Little update on Jadan Baugh (7:05 CT)
jeffrey aronson replied to Gerry Hamilton's topic in On Texas Football Forum
My thoughts exactly. Texas will be a top 5 team in 2026. Florida will be ???? -
jeffrey aronson joined the community
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OTF Premium 2025-26 Portal Tracker Thread
Realist Horn replied to CJ Vogel's topic in On Texas Football Forum
UCLA or Texas to showcase your skillset? -
OTF Premium 2025-26 Portal Tracker Thread
HenryJames replied to CJ Vogel's topic in On Texas Football Forum
Figure these JMU guys might be following their coach to UCLA. -
Meant to also include that pretty sure Lee is LDS
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OTF Premium 2025-26 Portal Tracker Thread
Bunk Moreland replied to CJ Vogel's topic in On Texas Football Forum
I hope we take a long look at him. Explosive player. 6.6 YPC for the season and he’s played well against P4 competition. Ran for 100+ on 6 YPC in the playoff game against Oregon. I think he’d be a great “lightning” complement to a Baugh or other power back. -
Whittingham is part of LDS and that’s a substantial reason he was so consistently formidable at Utah. As we know, schools in Utah have a solid pipeline of Polynesian descendants so this is really not a huge surprise; honestly one of the best hires in terms of retaining Lee
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OTF Premium 2025-26 Portal Tracker Thread
Realist Horn replied to CJ Vogel's topic in On Texas Football Forum
Don’t know a lot about the competition he faced. He went for 110 yards on 17 against Oregon (3 reception for 18 yards) -
BRH4 joined the community
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Exactly. They don't have to be RB1 and bet the house on them, but they need to at least be in the rotation imo... 🤘
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🤣🤣🤣 🤘
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Buck Travis started following Stay in school or declare early: Dr. Grok's analysis
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As an old school SWC fan (who did all I could to stay in school) my gut tells me that unless you're a 1st or 2nd round pick, you should stay in school. So I bounced the risk/rewards off of Grok: For a college football player projected as a **Round 3 or 4 pick**, the decision to declare early for the NFL Draft involves a balanced but risky **risk-reward calculation**. The financial upside is meaningful compared to staying in school, but the career longevity and success rates in those mid-rounds are modest, and returning to college can significantly boost draft stock (and thus earnings) while providing other benefits in the NIL era. ### Rewards of Declaring Early (Going Pro) - **Immediate Money**: Rookie contracts are slotted and fully guaranteed for most practical purposes in early rounds. - A typical Round 3 pick in recent drafts (e.g., mid-round) signs a 4-year deal worth ~$5-6 million total, with ~$1-2 million guaranteed (mostly signing bonus). - Round 4: ~$4-5 million total, with ~$800k-$1.2 million guaranteed. - You get paid right away (signing bonus upfront), start your NFL clock, and have a shot at proving yourself for a second contract. - **Professional Opportunity**: If you're projected Day 2 (Rounds 3-4), you're likely talented enough to get drafted and compete for a roster spot. Many mid-round picks become contributors or starters (e.g., ~30-40% chance of becoming a solid starter in Round 3, dropping to ~15-20% in Round 4 based on historical data). - **Avoid Risk of Decline**: One bad senior season, injury in college, or stock drop could push you to Round 5-7 (much lower pay) or undrafted. ### Risks of Declaring Early - **Short Career Potential**: Average NFL career for mid-round picks is ~4-6 years, but many don't last beyond their rookie deal. - Round 3 picks average ~50-60 games played historically; Round 4 closer to 40-50. - Only ~40-50% of Day 2/3 picks play out their full rookie contract as regulars; many are cut early. - If you flame out, you've forfeited college eligibility—no return option. - **Limited Upside Compared to Rising**: Mid-round money is good but not life-changing like Rounds 1-2. If you stay and dominate, you could jump to Day 1/early Day 2 (e.g., $10-30M+ contracts). - **Opportunity Cost**: In the NIL era, top players earn $500k-$2M+ per year in college via endorsements/collectives. Staying often means similar (or better) short-term cash without the NFL grind/injury risk. ### Benefits of Staying in College - **Boost Draft Stock**: Many players projected mid-rounds return and become top-100 or even first-round picks (common examples: improved film, leadership, stats lead to higher grades). - NFL Advisory Committee often recommends staying for projected Round 3+ grades to improve positioning. - **NIL Earnings + Development**: Make serious money now (often comparable to mid-round rookie salaries for stars), finish degree, refine skills, and reduce injury risk in pro-style offenses. - **Fewer Early Declarations Overall**: Post-NIL, underclassmen entries have dropped ~50%—most who declare now are projected Rounds 1-3, meaning mid-round projections increasingly stay. - **Fallback**: Degree + NIL resume provides security if NFL doesn't pan out long-term. ### Overall Assessment - **If Projected Firmly Round 3**: Lean toward going pro—the money is solid (~$5M+ deal), and waiting risks falling lower. - **If Borderline Round 3/4 or Lower**: Strongly consider staying—history shows big jumps possible, and NIL makes college lucrative. - The NFL is high-risk regardless: Even drafted players have ~3-6 year average careers, with mid-rounders often needing to fight for spots. Advice from scouts/GMs: Get feedback from the NFL College Advisory Committee. If they say "Round 3 or better," go. If "return to school," the data backs staying for most mid-tier projections. It's rarely a slam-dunk either way—personal development, injury history, and finances (NIL offers) tip the scale.
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My list: - Rod has the best aphorisms and energy. - CJ has the best mixed metaphors and hair. - Jeff has the most versatility (he literally can talk every sports from football, basketball, baseball, etc) - Coach Shipley has the lowest filter. - Gerry (don’t tell him I said this) is the funniest. - Blake is the most even keel.
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So the real MVP - and I think everyone from Gerry to Rod, Jeff, CJ, Blake, Coach Shipley, etc. - would agree is Matt, our producer. He does so many things behind the scenes and helps every single one of us. And Blake Munroe would be a close second. Blake produces every morning show and Matt produces every other show. Those two are the real MVPs IMO.
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https://www.youtube.com/live/bwaVLSm79eA?si=yr4Ed0cStH17_msV
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When was he on? I'd like to watch it.
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Best surprise guest: Sergio Kindle He was hilarious, knowledgeable, and had great insights into Muschamp. He’s also one of the few people alive who has an understated opinion of Colin Simmons. My jaw was on the ground when Bobby asked his opinion of Simmons and Serge was like “eh, he’s pretty good. But he can be better.” Awesome guest. Hope they bring him back again.