Texas Vegas Odds To Make CFP Continue To Change

[Blake Munroe]

Early yesterday morning the Longhorns had no odds listed to make the CFP. Those odds then appeared around 9:30 AM on Monday at +4000. 

It then went to +2500, followed by +2000 around 11 AM today. 

At the time of this post it’s now +1800. 

Could mean something, could mean money is just pouring in on Texas, could mean nothing. 

Others of note:

Vanderbilt +4000

Duke +1800

Miami +540

BYU +390

[Gerry Hamilton]

So essentially is 

11 BYU

12 Miami

13 Texas

14 Vanderbilt 

 

[JMarquette]

Thought I saw it move back up to +2200

[Joe Zura]

Yawn another playoff thread we are not getting in 

[JMarquette]

Just now, Gerry Hamilton said:

So essentially is 

11 BYU

12 Miami

13 Texas

14 Vanderbilt 

 

Texas only moving up 2 spots after beating the #3 team in the country is pretty shocking tbh after Michigan moved up 3 for beating Maryland. These jackasses are just making sh*t up as they go. 

[Joe Naural]

We Are in!  No way ghey keep best Story Archmania out!

we lost to #1 &2 

beat #3 A&m

beat top 10 ou n vandy

Texas is as good as Silver spot price risin!

[Atticus]

Just now, JMarquette said:

Texas only moving up 2 spots after beating the #3 team in the country is pretty shocking tbh after Michigan moved up 3 for beating Maryland. These jackasses are just making sh*t up as they go. 

Context matters. Gotta consider what else happened that week and who they moved ahead of. 

[Oskies1279]

So if I understand correctly, conference championship games don't count against any team correct? For example, if bama loses then it won't put them behind Texas being a 3 loss team with their bad loss being to fsu who lost to Florida?

[CJ Vogel]

2 minutes ago, Joe Zura said:

Yawn another playoff thread we are not getting in 

 

[pinkman_90]

1 minute ago, Oskies1279 said:

So if I understand correctly, conference championship games don't count against any team correct? For example, if bama loses then it won't put them behind Texas being a 3 loss team with their bad loss being to fsu who lost to Florida?

Thats what they say.  If Bama loses by 3+ scores then maybe they consider that.  But any reasonably competitive game and it probably won’t be factored.  

[CJ Vogel]

1 minute ago, Oskies1279 said:

So if I understand correctly, conference championship games don't count against any team correct? For example, if bama loses then it won't put them behind Texas being a 3 loss team with their bad loss being to fsu who lost to Florida?

2023 with a 4 team playoff, Georgia went from No.1 to No. 5 and missed the CFP after losing to Alabama in the SECCG.

Personally I don't think it should have any impact on the losing team in the CCG. But there has been movement before from the committee on losing teams.

[Joe Zura]

1 minute ago, CJ Vogel said:

 

Tell me I’m wrong cause I’m not also 🖕🏼😭😭😭😭

[Alex Butler]

6 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

So essentially is 

11 BYU

12 Miami

13 Texas

14 Vanderbilt 

 

So when BYU Gets smoked by tech we’re in with Miami? Wait we have stupid UVA, Duke, and some G5er to accommodate 

[CHorn427]

7 minutes ago, JMarquette said:

Texas only moving up 2 spots after beating the #3 team in the country is pretty shocking tbh after Michigan moved up 3 for beating Maryland. These jackasses are just making sh*t up as they go. 

That was purely to set up a "Top 15 matchup"

Edited December 2, 2025 by CHorn427

[Jbro52]

6 minutes ago, Joe Zura said:

Yawn another playoff thread we are not getting in 

 

[HookemTexas]

1 minute ago, CJ Vogel said:

2023 with a 4 team playoff, Georgia went from No.1 to No. 5 and missed the CFP after losing to Alabama in the SECCG.

Personally I don't think it should have any impact on the losing team in the CCG. But there has been movement before from the committee on losing teams.

And that was Georgia's only loss I believe, so they got screwed that year.  Bama was in because they won the championship game, and Texas beat Bama that year head to head, so they couldn't leave Texas out without leaving Bama out, but then you can't leave out the SEC champ.  FL got screwed because their QB got hurt.

[JMarquette]

6 minutes ago, Atticus said:

Context matters. Gotta consider what else happened that week and who they moved ahead of. 

There wasn’t any context - the committee just wanted to avoid the H2H between Texas and Vandy and then justify having Michigan in CFP if they beat tOSU.

[alrightalrightalright]

If it’s:

10. Alabama

11. BYU

12. Miami

13. Texas

and Bama and BYU get smoked…. Maybe. But I’m not holding my breath this weekend. Almost suffocated waiting for chaos last weekend lol

[Joe Zura]

1 minute ago, Jbro52 said:

 

That’s me after the 15th playoff thread of the day 😭😭

[John F.]

3 minutes ago, Oskies1279 said:

So if I understand correctly, conference championship games don't count against any team correct? For example, if bama loses then it won't put them behind Texas being a 3 loss team with their bad loss being to fsu who lost to Florida?

So they say but it’s not set in stone. Last year Texas and Penn St both lost and only dropped one spot because Georgia jumped them. SMU lost and got jumped by idle Indiana and Boise who won. The key thing is SMUs drop only hurt their seeding. It didn’t push them out. I doubt the committee would eliminate a CC loser like Alabama without cover from some other circumstance like a coach leaving or major injury. 
 

BYU is a little different. They’re not technically in right now (10 is the cutoff because of the 2 auto bids), so I could see them dropping if they lose. 

[pinkman_90]

1 minute ago, alrightalrightalright said:

If it’s:

10. Alabama

11. BYU

12. Miami

13. Texas

and Bama and BYU get smoked…. Maybe. But I’m not holding my breath this weekend. Almost suffocated waiting for chaos last weekend lol

I think the absolute lowest we could be to still have a chance would be 12.  

[camridleyfan]

Texas needs to be ahead of miami to have a chance, and then hope byu loses and alabama gets slaughtered

[Glass Joe]

If we get to #12 tonight at least there’s a glimmer of hope heading into the weekend.  Slight, but still a glimmer.

If we land at #13 tonight (likely), we’ve got zero hope heading into this weekend.

At least #12 allows you to hope a blowout loss by Bama to UGA, combined with the expected loss of BYU to Tech, may open up the #10 spot in the final rankings for a 3-loss Texas to edge a 3-loss Bama.  Of course, there’s no guarantee that would happen, but at least the conversation would take place among the Committee members.  This nullifies hopes for Texas or Miami.

Personally, I don’t take there will be any changes in the top 10 from what is announced tonight to the final rankings next week.  Even if Bama loses to UGA, I think they remain at #10 and make the playoffs with 3 losses.  The Committee would be creating a massive disincentive for all teams going forward if making it to your conference championship game can cost you a spot in the Playoffs you already earned.  Going forward, teams would intentionally lose just to avoid their conference championship games (for example, either Ohio St or Indiana could have intentionally lost last weekend to avoid the Big Ten CG, and they’d still make the playoffs).

The only teams not locked in stone at this point are the 2 teams to get the #11 and #12 spots in the playoffs after the AAC, Sun Belt, and ACC championship games this weekend.  AND, if BYU beats Tech, that likely kicks Alabama out of the playoffs at #10 (assuming they lose to UGA).  Both BYU and Tech are in the playoffs at that point.  

 

[4thandFive]

13 minutes ago, Joe Zura said:

Yawn another playoff thread we are not getting in 

If we do, imma bump this.

[Joe Zura]

Just now, 4thandFive said:

If we do, imma bump this.

As you should. I want you to roast me and call me awful names. Also I’ll stop being mean to Gerry and CJ deal? 🫡