OTF Premium Examining the Citrus Bowl QB battle between Arch Manning and Bryce Underwood

[Jeff Howe]

Wednesday’s Citrus Bowl pits two of the most highly-touted quarterback prospects in the history of modern recruiting against each other when Arch Manning and Bryce Underwood lead their respective teams into battle for the last time in 2025.

Manning, who will make his 15th career start for Texas, is the eighth-highest rated quarterback prospect in the history of the 247Sports Composite, slightly behind Terrelle Pryor and just ahead of Matt Barkley. Ryan Mallett is the only quarterback to ever sign with Michigan rated higher than Underwood (No. 22 all-time in the 247Sports Composite quarterback rankings), who will start for the 13th and final time as a true freshman.

That’s where the similarities end between two former prized quarterback recruits at different stages of their respective careers.

Against a Wolverine defense that ranks 16th nationally in points per game allowed (18.7), 18th in yards per play allowed (4.77) and 22nd in yards per game allowed (312.3), Manning will look to continue the success he’s enjoyed against the Longhorns’ ranked opponents in 2025. Even though he struggled in a season-opening loss to Ohio State, Manning completed 64.2 percent of his passes (104 for 162) against the Buckeyes, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, throwing for 1,094 yards and seven touchdowns against two interceptions.

Manning’s 112 net rushing yards in those games include a 36-yard game-clinching touchdown run against the Aggies. According to Pro Football Focus, Manning was pressured on 97 dropbacks, but his pocket presence and athleticism minimized the damage to the tune of just total sacks for five ranked foes.

Wink Martindale, a defensive coordinator known for the variety and volume of pressure looks he’ll throw at opposing quarterbacks, will have to blitz Manning at his own risk. On the 184 dropbacks in which Manning has been blitzed through 12 games, according to PFF, he’s completed more than 57 percent of his passes (96 for 166) for 1,419 yards and 12 touchdowns, throwing just two interceptions with 81 pressures via the blitz leading to only 11 sacks.

On the other hand, Underwood’s two games against ranked opponents (a 24-13 loss to Oklahoma in his first start on the road and a 27-9 loss to Ohio State at home in the regular season finale) yielded unsavory results. In Michigan's losses to the Sooners and Buckeyes, Underwood went 17-for-42 through the air (40.5 percent completion rate) for 205 yards (4.9 yards per attempt and 12.1 yards per completion) with no touchdown passes and one interception.

Like most inexperienced quarterbacks, Underwood is still learning how to deal with pressure. According to PFF, Underwood is 28-for-61 on the 29.7 percent of his dropbacks in which he’s faced pressure, with 362 yards, one touchdown and one interception, numbers that have contributed to an NFL passer rating of 63.7.

Martindale and the Wolverines will play the game without three defensive captains (EDGE Derrick Moore and linebackers Jaishawn Barham and Ernest Hausmann). The Longhorns have turned defensive play-calling duties over to Johnny Nansen, who’s left to adjust to the fallout of seven postseason opt-outs.

Still, the objective for both coordinators on Wednesday should be to win the race to make the game one in which the opponent has to drop back and throw the football to survive.

A Texas offensive line operating at full strength must keep Manning clean and pave the way for the Longhorns to run the ball well enough to achieve a must-have semblance of balance. The Longhorns surrendered just three sacks in their three regular-season wins over Associated Press top-10 opponents, victories over Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M in which Texas averaged 155.3 rushing yards per game (4.68 yards per attempt).

Ty’Anthony Smith and Brad Spence will lead an inexperienced group of Texas linebackers against a Michigan rushing attack that’s one of the best in the country (213.2 yards per game and 5.51 yards per attempt are top-15 marks in FBS). Slowing down the Wolverines’ rushing attack isn’t an insurmountable task, however, with Michigan set to take the field without running back Justice Haynes (857 yards rushing, 7.1 yards per attempt and 10 touchdowns), All-Big Ten tight end/H-back/fullback/lead blocker Max Bredeson and All-Big Ten left guard Gio El-Hadi (it also remains to be seen where leading rusher Jordan Marshall is in his recovery from a late-season shoulder injury).

Opt-outs and coaching changes add significant unknown variables when trying to predict the winner of a postseason exhibition between two of the five winningest programs in FBS history. The outcome will likely be decided by either the Wolverines slowing down Manning’s ascent toward his ceiling or the Longhorns doing their part to put Underwood’s coming-of-age moment as a college quarterback off until 2026.

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[Jeff Howe]

I didn't mention it in the article, but Arch didn't turn the ball over in any of the top-10 wins Texas had during the regular season.

[Alex Butler]

Should be interesting, I’m not super confident about tomorrow and am just trying to figure out how to look forward to seeing young guys and nit worry about the outcome. I actually expect us to lose given Michigan hasn’t had the attrition expected after the Moore debacle. 

[Bunk Moreland]

I somewhat disagree with the framing. Agree that Arch is the big key for Texas—as he goes, so go the Horns. But to me the big key for Michigan isn’t Underwood; I’m not convinced he is likely to beat Texas by himself. For me, the big key for UM is whether they can beat the interior of the Texas defense down by running it 45 times. That worries me much, much more than Underwood. They can potentially dominate the TOP and break our spine. It will be critical for the Texas central nervous system to bow up and shut them down.

[mmdaytontexas]

Underwood is missing a couple of his key offensive linemen, and Texas' defense beat an Aggy team with a great offense by double digits, even though they were missing their top linebacker and cornerback. I think we will hold up on defense against him and their run game unless we are busting run-gap assignments and coverages. If we can load up to stop the run and force UM into relying on the pass, we can win this game. I'm not worried about the safety as an LB. They are not expecting him to play a run-stopping role. I'm sure he will only play on third-and-long downs and be more responsible for underneath coverage. 

[Big Tex]

Michigan is nuts if they try to turn this into a shootout. Given the Texas opt outs Michigan is likely to try to run over us and go after our totally inexperienced LBs. The game is basically a scrimmage anyways but I'm also concerned about how our defense will hold up.

[Jerky]

Texas should stack the box and send pressure all game to stop the run, contain QB Underwood and make him uncomfortable passing and hopefully cause him to make mistakes when passing.

Edited just now by Jerky