NFL Draft Live Thread | Round 4

[Spencer Gregory]

This draft has been beyond humbling. 

[jhookem91]

Don’t understand the Devin Moore pick for the Cowboys when Manny was still on the board. Manny is a much better CB.

[Jujujuice]

Hopefully these future juniors drop the ego and quit thinking they are too good for a 4th year.   
BARRON: came back as senior and won Thorpe.  Went first round. 
Muhammad: left after junior year. Didn’t do much as junior.  Still undrafted as of 4th round.  

Edited 1 hour ago by Jujujuice

[Spencer Gregory]

I agree. As a Cowboys fan, I learned early that they do not use logic to draft  

[JMarquette]

11 minutes ago, Spencer Gregory said:

This draft has been beyond humbling. 

I think it’s actually pretty incredible that we won 10 games with 1 pick in the first 3 rounds. 

[Gerry Hamilton]

Ole Miss has one NFL draft pick right now ... all this stuff goes beyond just talent. 

[Here for the Wins]

Does Notre Dame have any picks yet other than RBs?

[Spencer Gregory]

6 minutes ago, JMarquette said:

I think it’s actually pretty incredible that we won 10 games with 1 pick in the first 3 rounds. 

Love the perspective! Needed that

Hook 'em

[Dread-headed Texan]

Manny should be off the board by now 

[CJ Vogel]

Good for Malik Muhammad. Chicago is a great city. 

[jhookem91]

Manny to the Bears!  Great pick.

[ArizonaLonghorn]

The past few years I've been tracking the accuracy of the Mock Composite draft site, which aggregates mock draft data from 180 big boards and over 1,300 first round mock drafts.  Typically the first round has been pretty accurate - the past two drafts they hit on 27 of the 32 first rounders for example, with most of the misses getting drafted in the 2nd round, with the major exceptions of Shedeur Sanders last year and Jermond McCoy this year.

Below is this year's data in table form (I had to wait until McCoy was picked - he was mocked at 17 but ended up 101 or fourth round).

A yellow background in the 'Mock' column means those five players were drafted in round one but mocked lower (Banks mocked 44 or round 3 but drafted 18 for example).  A blue background in the 'NFL draft' column is for the five guys mocked round 1 but drafted later.  Three were picked early in round 2, a fourth late in round 2 and McCoy (coming back from injury) slipped into round 4, similar to what happened with Sanders last year (minus the injury excuse).  So most of the mock's misses were still reasonably close.

'Delta' column shows the difference between mock and actual slot, with red indicating the mock was too optimistic.  The red 59 at the bottom is the sum of these.  Minus 59 means the average error for 37 players was less than 2 spots, which is impressive.

'abs delta' column adds the absolute errors, so plus seven and minus 7 would be zero in the 'Delta' column, but 14 here.  If you divide the number (345) by the number of players (37) the average error was 9.3 or less than 1/3 a round.  Scanning that column there is only one number higher than 32, meaning 36 or the 37 players were mocked within one round of where they were taken.

I also added the 247 Composite ranking for the 32 first rounders (average 447) and the star rankings 3.72 or 3++ in the Hamilton Metric.

Basically this idea of doing a composite seems to give pretty accurate results for round one.

I also am tracking where the Texas players are taken ... will have more on that later once the draft is done.

[HonkEm]

15 minutes ago, CJ Vogel said:

Good for Malik Muhammad. Chicago is a great city. 

depends on what part of Chicago you are talking about. I don't think Chicago is a great city at all. It has some bright spots, sure, but the issues overshadow the good for me. It’s not the “amazing city” people hype it up to be.

Edited 1 hour ago by HonkEm

[jhookem91]

Trey Moore to the Dolphins!  He really improved his draft stock during the process.  Good pass rushers get drafted - even ones played out of position their last year.

[Jeff Howe]

We’re into the fifth round.

[Jeff Howe]

Jack Endries is either the best or second-best tight end left on the board.

[harveycmd]

4 minutes ago, Jeff Howe said:

Jack Endries is either the best or second-best tight end left on the board.

That doesn't seem to matter in this draft, Jeff. It's truly mindboggling to watch this unfold.

Edited 34 minutes ago by harveycmd

[Oldest Horn]

1 hour ago, Spencer Gregory said:

This draft has been beyond humbling. 

Overvaluing our players’ draft stock is a rite of spring.