Colin Simmons Expectations

[ryantnelson02]

As a freshman a successful season would be putting on 20-25 Pounds and cracking the rotation as a pass rush specialist. That gives him 18-19 months before we expect him to be that war daddy at Edge for Texas. Having Trey Moore and Ethan Burke is so valuable right now and gives this staff time to be patient with Colin and make sure his talent is maximized on the 40 acres!

[Bobby Burton]

1 hour ago, ryantnelson02 said:

As a freshman a successful season would be putting on 20-25 Pounds and cracking the rotation as a pass rush specialist. That gives him 18-19 months before we expect him to be that war daddy at Edge for Texas. Having Trey Moore and Ethan Burke is so valuable right now and gives this staff time to be patient with Colin and make sure his talent is maximized on the 40 acres!

I don't have a clear picture of where they're going to want him to be physically. More college ready for sure, but exact numbers are unknown.

I hope he shows some suddenness in year one. Show that he can be a disruptor. I don't *expect* much more than that.

[GotElmodontcare]

Well we have log jam at both edge positions. Buck and Jack especially with Sorrel returning and UTSA stud Trey Moore coming in.

 

I think Simmons needs to play the minimum 4 games and put on weight and preserve a year. 4 games and 80  snaps or so to get him used to big boy football and take the RS.

 

Buck: 1,, Trey Moore 2. Burke 3. Simmons/Walton

Jack:  1. Sorrell 2. Tapp. 3. Vasek

Edited January 26 by GotElmodontcare

[Bobby Burton]

I look at this a little differently. I don’t see it as a logjam unless guys are producing at a high level.

Right now, I don’t see that. I see guys who are solid starters but no major producers.

Maybe that’s the logjam actually. And someone needs to break free.

[TexShoe]

My expectations:

1. Play in every game
2. 30 solo tackles
3. 20 or so assists for 50 total tackles
4. 8 TFLs
5. 6 sacks
6. 7 QB hurries

[TooBrokeToPayAttention21]

In my way too early prediction I think Simmons and Zina will be the starting ends in 2025 or be getting the majority of the snaps in 2025. I think those guys are just way talented and will get some introduction or seasoning in the college game in 2024. Then with two full off seasons for learning, development/weight room and practices those two will be beasts in 2025. of course if that doesn't happen I will gladly eat some crow. 😁🤘

[Bobby Burton]

2 hours ago, TexShoe said:

My expectations:

1. Play in every game
2. 30 solo tackles
3. 20 or so assists for 50 total tackles
4. 8 TFLs
5. 6 sacks
6. 7 QB hurries

I'd temper those.

[codaxx]

I am going to hope he gets up to about 235-240 for the season.  I am kind of looking for a similar season to Ant Hill, with the realization that Buck is much deeper than LB last year, which is some nice flash plays coupled with a lot of learning experiences. I am not expecting to see him much on 1st and 2nd down as a freshmen, especially when Sorrell and Burke are solid vs the run the game. Hoping to see him in some sort of NASCAR type package (pass rushing package, where we see something like Moore and Simmons at the edges), if gets a lot more than that in normal game situations I will be thrilled. 

Edited January 26 by codaxx

[TexShoe]

1 hour ago, Bobby Burton said:

I'd temper those.

I based my guestimate on what Anthony Hill produced this past season, with slight adjustment for their position differences.  If they were ranked relatively similarly, I don't see why Simmons wouldn't be able to reach those levels.  And if those are pipe dreams, then Simmons shouldn't have been ranked that high.  There needs to be some correlations between rankings and expected production.  

[Bobby Burton]

6 minutes ago, TexShoe said:

I based my guestimate on what Anthony Hill produced this past season, with slight adjustment for their position differences.  If they were ranked relatively similarly, I don't see why Simmons wouldn't be able to reach those levels.  And if those are pipe dreams, then Simmons shouldn't have been ranked that high.  There needs to be some correlations between rankings and expected production.  

Agree with you about level expectations being somewhat similar for a five star player. But only to a degree. Every player and situation is different. Context matters.

For example, Hill didn't have two returning starters in front of him. Also, the closer you are to the ball, the more physically prepared you need to be.

If Simmons can prove disruptive in spurts and look like an heir apparent at one of the DE spots, that's really what I'm looking for.

15-25 tackles, 2-3 sacks. About 20-25% of playing time.

And if those are the expectations of Simmons, what are the appropriate expectations for five star Brandon Baker? I just think it's all about context.

[TexShoe]

5 minutes ago, Bobby Burton said:

Agree with you about level expectations being somewhat similar for a five star player. But only to a degree. Every player and situation is different. Context matters.

For example, Hill didn't have two returning starters in front of him. Also, the closer you are to the ball, the more physically prepared you need to be.

If Simmons can prove disruptive in spurts and look like an heir apparent at one of the DE spots, that's really what I'm looking for.

15-25 tackles, 2-3 sacks. About 20-25% of playing time.

And if those are the expectations of Simmons, what are the appropriate expectations for five star Brandon Baker? I just think it's all about context.

I would be comparing Baker to Banks.  Lofty comps, but that should be the expectation.  That said, totally agree on relative talent around them.  I hadn't considered impact of losing Sweat and Murphy.  Broughton and Collins are good, but not Sweat and Murphy good.

[codaxx]

1 minute ago, TexShoe said:

I would be comparing Baker to Banks.  Lofty comps, but that should be the expectation.  That said, totally agree on relative talent around them.  I hadn't considered impact of losing Sweat and Murphy.  Broughton and Collins are good, but not Sweat and Murphy good.

You cant compare Baker to Banks.  Banks came in and had to beat a speed bump out for a starting position.  Baker would have to jump a player that is will likely go in the 1st 2 rounds of the NFL draft. Baker is highly likely to get a redshirt this year. That doesnt mean he is a bust, just that there are older NFL players in front of him. Keep in mind you targeted 6 sacks for Simmons, Texas hasnt had someone get 6 sacks since Omenihu in 2018. You reference Hill, but he was rated one of the worst starters on the defense by PFF. He made flash plays that excited everyone for the future, but overall he was not even an average Big 12 LB with his play... 

[Atticus]

15 minutes ago, Bobby Burton said:

Agree with you about level expectations being somewhat similar for a five star player. But only to a degree. Every player and situation is different. Context matters.

For example, Hill didn't have two returning starters in front of him. Also, the closer you are to the ball, the more physically prepared you need to be.

If Simmons can prove disruptive in spurts and look like an heir apparent at one of the DE spots, that's really what I'm looking for.

15-25 tackles, 2-3 sacks. About 20-25% of playing time.

And if those are the expectations of Simmons, what are the appropriate expectations for five star Brandon Baker? I just think it's all about context.

This is exactly where I'm at. I also want to see how well he holds up against the run. Teams will use his burst on the edge against him if he isn't careful.

[TexShoe]

19 minutes ago, codaxx said:

You cant compare Baker to Banks.  Banks came in and had to beat a speed bump out for a starting position.  Baker would have to jump a player that is will likely go in the 1st 2 rounds of the NFL draft. Baker is highly likely to get a redshirt this year. That doesnt mean he is a bust, just that there are older NFL players in front of him. Keep in mind you targeted 6 sacks for Simmons, Texas hasnt had someone get 6 sacks since Omenihu in 2018. You reference Hill, but he was rated one of the worst starters on the defense by PFF. He made flash plays that excited everyone for the future, but overall he was not even an average Big 12 LB with his play... 

100% agreement that our OL is in a much different developmental shape that 3 seasons ago.  Let's just pause there for a second to thank the good Lord and Sark for that.  What I meant was for Baker to be an equally impactful multi-year contributor like Banks.  Given that we're finally in a position where we can afford to RS our OLs, if we could hold him back another year, AND if Cam Williams is ready to occupy the RT position, that's a long term win for us.

[codaxx]

7 minutes ago, TexShoe said:

100% agreement that our OL is in a much different developmental shape that 3 seasons ago.  Let's just pause there for a second to thank the good Lord and Sark for that.  What I meant was for Baker to be an equally impactful multi-year contributor like Banks.  Given that we're finally in a position where we can afford to RS our OLs, if we could hold him back another year, AND if Cam Williams is ready to occupy the RT position, that's a long term win for us.

Quote

equally impactful multi-year contributor like Banks

I think we can all get onboard with having expectations for Simmons to be an impactful starter for a 2 years. It is the year 1 expectations that we do not see eye to eye. I dont think we see Colin near his ceiling until 2026. He has 5 star production and athleticism. He does not have the proto-typical size, so I expect it will take some time for him to adjust. The run game will be a major issue for him in year 1. If he can not be trusted to hold the edge, he is not going to play a lot. His burst may get him time as a situational player, but physics are working against him for considerable play time. (225 pound Edge players, do not tend to hold their ground vs 325 pound OTs). 

[TexShoe]

I can't pick Simmons out of a lineup if my life depended on it, but if he doesn't have prototypical size, then why is he a 5-star?  I thought size was a huge part of being a 5-star, the same reason guys like Drew Brees and Quandre Diggs, despite being wizards in their respective positions, did not get a 5-star ranking, not even a 4 star ranking?

Sorry I appear argumentative, but the star system has always puzzled me despite being a solid 20 year veteran of these boards.

[codaxx]

17 minutes ago, TexShoe said:

I can't pick Simmons out of a lineup if my life depended on it, but if he doesn't have prototypical size, then why is he a 5-star?  I thought size was a huge part of being a 5-star, the same reason guys like Drew Brees and Quandre Diggs, despite being wizards in their respective positions, did not get a 5-star ranking, not even a 4 star ranking?

Sorry I appear argumentative, but the star system has always puzzled me despite being a solid 20 year veteran of these boards.

not that uncommon. Kids grow and fill out. Quinn was the #1 rated QB and he doesnt have the prototype size. 

[Shane]

1 hour ago, TexShoe said:

I can't pick Simmons out of a lineup if my life depended on it, but if he doesn't have prototypical size, then why is he a 5-star?  I thought size was a huge part of being a 5-star, the same reason guys like Drew Brees and Quandre Diggs, despite being wizards in their respective positions, did not get a 5-star ranking, not even a 4 star ranking?

Sorry I appear argumentative, but the star system has always puzzled me despite being a solid 20 year veteran of these boards.

I think they rate them on NFL potential. 5 stars means future 1st round pick. That’s why they only have 32,5 stars every year. I could be wrong but that’s what I had seen on another site.