OTF Premium Three matchups to watch when No. 11 Texas hosts Mississippi State

[Jeff Howe]

AUSTIN, Texas — It's fair to call Steve Sarkisian’s matchup against the opposing defensive coordinator the top in-game battle to watch in every Texas game.

However, it's crucial that Sarkisian wins his battle against Mississippi State on Saturday (6:30 p.m., ESPN). Not just to help the 11th-ranked Longhorns build on what went right in last Saturday’s 34-27 win over Ole Miss, but to set the tone for November.

“Zach Arnett is a guy who I have a ton of respect for as a defensive coordinator,” said Sarkisian, whose historic Alabama offense averaged 6.8 yards per play and racked up 499 yards in a 41-0 rout of the Bulldogs in 2020, Arnett’s first season as Mike Leach’s defensive coordinator. “They pose a ton of threats with the multitude of defenses that they throw at you and the athleticism that they play with.”

No. 11 Texas (5-2, 2-2 SEC) will be on the road for three of its final four regular-season games, including back-to-back trips to No. 23 Missouri and No. 15 LSU. While the Bulldogs appear to be dead in the water with injured quarterback Kamario Taylor ruled out for the rest of the season, the Longhorns haven’t played well enough to overlook anyone left on their schedule.

That’s especially true on offense.

It’s good that the win over the Rebels saw Texas set season highs against a Power Four opponent in points, total offense (419 yards), rushing yards (207) and yards per carry (4.9). Now the Longhorns need to at least match their most recent performance to establish some much-needed consistency.

Specifically, the Texas will attempt to establish the run and stick with it against a Mississippi State (4-3, 2-3 SEC) run defense that’s been solid through seven games.

Even with Raleek Brown coming off a 157-yard performance against Ole Miss, including three of Texas’ eight rushing plays of 20 yards or more this season, the Longhorns can’t expect to plow through a Bulldog defense that’s the nation’s No. 46 unit against the run (124.8 yards per game allowed). Mississippi State is also a top-50 defense in yards per carry allowed (3.66, tied for No. 44 in FBS); rushing attempts of 10 or more yards allowed (20, tied for 14th); rushing attempts of 20 or more yards allowed (four, tied for No. 19 in the country) and rushing touchdowns allowed (five, tied for 13th).

The challenge for a Texas offensive line coming off its most noteworthy performance of the season is keeping the offense on schedule and limiting negative plays against a defense that’s had trouble creating them. The Bulldogs are tied for 83rd in the country in tackles for loss (35 total and five per game), 91st in line yards per carry allowed (rushing yards attributed to the opposing offensive line using weighted yardage) and 124th in stuff rate (the percentage of an opponent’s rushing attempts stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage).

With 42 carries against the Rebels (including sacks and kneel-downs), the Longhorns improved to 25-2 under Sarkisian when recording 40 or more official rushing attempts, including 14 consecutive wins in 40-carry games. It’s not a coincidence that Texas controlled the late stages of the game on the ground in its two wins over top-10 opponents (Ole Miss and a 24-23 win over then-No. 1 Ohio State on Sept. 12). The Longhorns ran the ball on 13 of their last 14 plays from scrimmage against the Rebels, ending a 6-play, 80-yard drive with a touchdown and an 8-play, 44-yard drive with a field goal.

The best way Sarkisian can help Andre Cojoe settle in during his first career start, get Arch Manning into a rhythm, maximize the play-action deep shots he wants to dial up and keep the offense on schedule is to be patient with the running game. The Longhorns don’t need to match their production on the ground from the Ole Miss game against Mississippi State, but the rushing attack must be effective enough for Sarkisian to trust it for four quarters.

TEXAS WIDE RECEIVERS vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE CORNERBACKS

According to Pro Football Focus, Manning has been pressured on 80 dropbacks this season (tied for No. 35 in FBS and tied for the sixth-most in the SEC). He’s been blitzed 109 times through seven games, including 18 times on 33 dropbacks against the Rebels.

After Florida blitzed Manning 18 times in 28 dropbacks two weeks ago, he’s been blitzed at a 59-percent rate in the last two games. Arnett has blitzed three of the seven Power Four quarterbacks the Bulldogs have faced on more than 30 percent of their dropbacks: Minnesota’s Drake Lindsey (48 percent), Missouri’s Austin Simmons (31.7 percent) and Alabama’s Keelon Russell (55.6 percent).

Although Mississippi State’s pass defense is putrid (No. 129 in FBS, allowing 267.4 yards per game; 69 completions of 10-plus yards allowed is tied for 106th; 27 completions of 20-plus yards allowed is tied for 117th), the Bulldogs have one of the SEC’s top cornerback tandems in Jett Jefferson and Kelley Jones, who rank first and fifth in the conference in passes defended, with nine and seven, respectively. If Arnett feels Mississippi State’s only chance to survive is to do what the Gators did and get to Manning before he can get rid of the football, the Texas wide receivers must win one-on-one battles, especially when the Bulldogs are in man coverage.

According to PFF, Jefferson and Jones only play a quarter of their snaps in man coverage. While nine targets against Jones in man coverage have resulted in only four completions and 47 yards, four of the seven catches Jefferson has allowed in man coverage have been touchdowns.

JELANI McDONALD vs. FLUFF BOTHWELL

After injury limited him to one carry in Mississippi State’s 56-23 loss to Alabama on Oct. 3 and forced him to miss the team’s 31-0 road loss to LSU on Oct. 17, Bothwell returned to action and recorded his fourth 100-yard game of the season (111 yards on 17 carries) in a 23-15 loss to Oklahoma last Saturday.

Jeff Lebby’s Veer-and-Shoot offense naturally creates vertical seams in the running game and a lot of one-on-one opportunities for running backs to win against opposing safeties. That puts the spotlight on McDonald to keep Bothwell from getting loose, which he can do if he builds on last week’s 12-tackle performance, with an interception and a pass breakup.

McDonald had a career-high 14 tackles in last season’s win in Starkville. He should be in line for another double-digit tackle game, especially if Will Muschamp continues to line him up as the middle safety in a three-high shell. The Longhorns utilized their three-safety look on roughly one-third of their snaps against Ole Miss, a defensive structure that only works if McDonald properly diagnoses what the offense is doing, primarily when it comes to fitting the run properly.

Since the Bulldogs love to crank up the tempo offensively, McDonald getting lined up quickly and dissecting what’s happening in front of him at a breakneck pace will be a battle in and of itself. Then, McDonald will try his hand at wrapping up Bothwell, who ranks seventh in the SEC in yards after contact (382 total yards and 4.2 yards per attempt) and eighth in missed tackles forced (25).

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[BurntOrangeHorn]

Very comprehensive. Hopefully Texas does not think this game is a walkover! 

 

🤘🏻🤘🏼🤘🤘🏽🤘🏾🤘🏿

[Jeff Howe]

Two other matchups I wanted to mention:

1. Anthony Evans III will line up all over the field for Mississippi State, but about 88 percent of his snaps this season have come from the slot. This will be a tremendous opportunity for Graceson Littleton to show what he can do if you try him. Evans, who leads the SEC in receptions (53), is No. 3 in the conference in receiving yards (647) and is tied for fifth in touchdown receptions (five), will make his share of plays. It'll be up to Littleton (for the most part) to limit him.

2. It'll be another big week (every week usually is in the SEC) for the interior of the Texas offensive line. Jaray Bledsoe, who leads the Bulldogs in sacks (2.5) and tackles for loss (5.5), lines up almost exclusively in the A-gap (94 snaps) or B-gap (163 snaps). Connor Robertson, Dylan Sikorski and Brandon Baker need to do their part to make sure Bledsoe's return trip to DKR isn't one he'll want to remember.

[Jeff Howe]

5 minutes ago, BurntOrangeHorn said:

Very comprehensive. Hopefully Texas does not think this game is a walkover! 

 

🤘🏻🤘🏼🤘🤘🏽🤘🏾🤘🏿

They shouldn't. They're not in a position to overlook anybody.

[Baron]

The OL has to be able to adjust to stunts and blitzes. Opposing DC's have stunted or blitzed on 57% on Texas' offensive snaps.

[Jordan Scruggs]

Interested to see how Andre Cojoe does vs. MSU Des Amaree Williams and Will Whitson. They start opposite of each other and lead MSU in pressures. Williams has a chance to be a day 2 pick in a few years and has some intriguing traits. They use him in stunts and move him around a fair amount as well. He reclassified and skipped his senior year and played TE/DE as a freshman at Florida State before playing more DE as a sophomore. He transferred to MSU ahead of this season and is a full-time DE for the Bulldogs

[Jarveaux]

Zach is a good guy . Leach loved him . Terrible HC . Very good DC . He was thrown into the fire without any HC experience. Mississippi St isn’t a give me . But we should beat them by two touchdowns. Gonna watch my great nephew tonight who plays for Picayune Memorial. 300lb sophomore. 16” shoe stronger than a bull . 6’3”  He’s a Hoss . Remember his name . Colston Head . He’s a Hoss at OT . He loves Texas Longhorns.