Bubble watch

[bierce]

Cincy dispatched Okie State with ease.  Gets Iowa State tomorrow.  A win there could start earning it a vote or two.  Follow it up with a win over BYU in the quarterfinals, and it will get on 1/4 of the brackets.  Follow that with a win over Houston, it will be looking like a serious candidate to make the tournament. 

[Clint Baros]

(13) Cincinnati topples (12) Oklahoma State 87-68 in round 1 of the Big XII Tournament to keeps its season alive. Cincinnati currently sits with a 9% chance to make the tournament. (13) Cincinnati will face (5) Iowa State tomorrow @ 12:30 PM in hopes of keeping their season alive.

[bierce]

Pitt-Notre Dame is a terrible game.  South Carolina would clobber either of these teams. 

If Pitt wins, it would face UNC in the second round.  Wake f'ing Forest got a double bye, showing just how ugh the ACC was this year.  It would be Pitt's next opponent if it wins today and tomorrow. 

[bierce]

Pitt guard stepped out while driving baseline with 19.2 seconds left in a tie game.  ND shot a runner, missed, got an offensive rebound, fouled on the putback.  Refs reviewing to see if clock expired before the shot.  Obviously no.  ND shooting a pair with 0.5 seconds left.  Made first.  Missed second.  85 foot heave winds up short. 

South Carolina would have beaten these guys by 20. 

Edited yesterday at 08:02 PM by bierce

[Neil Leininger]

1 hour ago, bierce said:

Pitt-Notre Dame is a terrible game.  South Carolina would clobber either of these teams. 

If Pitt wins, it would face UNC in the second round.  Wake f'ing Forest got a double bye, showing just how ugh the ACC was this year.  It would be Pitt's next opponent if it wins today and tomorrow. 

Duke is 14-3 against Q1/2 teams, Texas is 8-14. Duke getting a #1 seed is absurd considering what the SEC and Big 12 have to play. Duke didn't play a single home game in conference against a Q1 team, we played 7.

Edited yesterday at 08:25 PM by Neil Leininger

[bierce]

1 minute ago, Neil Leininger said:

Duke is 14-3 against Q1/2 teams, Texas is 8-14. Duke getting a #1 seed is absurd considering what the SEC and Big 12 have to play. Duke didn't play a single home game in conference against a Q1 team.

I think Michigan State might have a complaint if it wins the Big Ten tournament and gets only a 2 seed, but I don't have much problem with Duke getting one of the 1 seeds right now.  Auburn, Houston, Michigan State, and Duke are the only teams with at least 7 q1 wins and a 70%+ winning pct in q1 games.   

[Jordan91]

3 hours ago, bierce said:

Pitt-Notre Dame is a terrible game.  South Carolina would clobber either of these teams. 

If Pitt wins, it would face UNC in the second round.  Wake f'ing Forest got a double bye, showing just how ugh the ACC was this year.  It would be Pitt's next opponent if it wins today and tomorrow. 

I sense anger towards Wake Forest!

[bierce]

As of this morning, the last eight in are Utah State, Baylor (!), Arky, San Diego State, OU, Indiana, tOSU, and Xavier.  The first seven out are UNC, Boise State, UC Irvine, Dayton, Texas, Wake Forest, and Colorado State.  We'll call Cincy the eighth out for now. 

Tons of action involving those teams tomorrow, including possible double bubble games between Texas and Vandy, and between OU and Georgia.  Cincy, Arky, tOSU, UNC, Baylor, and West Virginia also play tomorrow. 

Boise State faces SDSU Thursday in a MWC quarterfinal.  Xavier plays Marquette Thursday in a Big East quarter. 

[bierce]

I'm not mad at Wake Forest.  I'm just astounded that a team that poor is the 4th seed in the ACC tournament.   Of course, last year the 3rd seed was Pomeroy 68 Virginia.

Edited 23 hours ago by bierce

[BobInHouston]

5 hours ago, bierce said:

Cincy dispatched Okie State with ease.  Gets Iowa State tomorrow.  A win there could start earning it a vote or two.  Follow it up with a win over BYU in the quarterfinals, and it will get on 1/4 of the brackets.  Follow that with a win over Houston, it will be looking like a serious candidate to make the tournament. 

Dillon Mitchell with perhaps his best game as a college player. He had 18 and 15 with five steals and a block. Six turnovers, but who really cares?

[BobInHouston]

44 minutes ago, bierce said:

I'm not mad at Wake Forest.  I'm just astounded that a team that poor is the 4th seed in the ACC tournament.   Of course, last year the 3rd seed was Pomeroy 68 Virginia.

Hubert Davis should be embarrassed.

[bierce]

7 minutes ago, BobInHouston said:

Hubert Davis should be embarrassed.

Tiebreaker was UNC's 1 point loss in Winston-Salem.

[Neil Leininger]

38 minutes ago, BobInHouston said:

Hubert Davis should be embarrassed.

Very inconsistent coach. National runner up, missed tournament, SS, likely missed tournament.

[Jordan91]

18 minutes ago, Neil Leininger said:

Very inconsistent coach. National runner up, missed tournament, SS, likely missed tournament.

He will get next year, but if he misses the tournament next year? I don’t think he survives that.

[bierce]

UNC has a pretty young team as teams go in the portal era.  It could be really good next year if most of the team returns and Wilson joins Denis and Dixon in the incoming class. 

UNC hasn't had quite the roller coaster that runner-up, miss tournament, Sweet Sixteen, bubble suggests.  It wasn't that bad in 2023.  It had 20 wins, was in the Pomeroy top 45, and barely missed the tournament.  It was Pomeroy 30 and an 8 seed that got on a roll in 2022.  That happens sometimes. 

I know the NCAA tournament didn't have nearly as many teams in the mid-late 70s than it does now, but undefeated National Champ, followed by 16-11 with no post-season and a 5th place finish in a Big Ten that had only 10 teams, followed by a  Sweet 16, followed by another 5th place Big Ten team going to the NIT was a four year stretch for a pretty famous coach early in his career. 

[BobInHouston]

Idaho looks like it will suffer a Grizzly defeat here in the Big Sky tournament.

(I've been writing this pun since 1981.)

Edited 19 hours ago by BobInHouston

[bierce]

1 minute ago, BobInHouston said:

Idaho looks like it will suffer a Grizzly defeat here in the Big Sky tournament.

How many years have you been saving that one?

[bierce]

Cincy lost by 20 to stay firmly out of contention.

Arky won by 4 to stay in the tournament and probably avoid the play-in games.

UNC is up by 18 midway through the second half against ND.   

 

 

[bierce]

Texas wins to get back in the conversation. 

UNC won by 20.

WVU lost to NET 90 Colorado.  WVU hasn't beaten a top 50 NET team since mid-January.  Let's compare resumes.

WVU is 6-10 in q1.  So is Texas now.

WVU is 4-3 in q2.  Texas is 3-4.  So is one a tournament certainty and the other clearly out?  I think not.  Things are a lot tighter in bubble land than they may appear. 

 

[BobInHouston]

Scattershooting on these targets:

Xavier, Ohio State, Indiana, Oklahoma, San Diego State, UNC, Baylor, Arkansas, Utah State.

[BobInHouston]

If Texas wins tomorrow, they can look at this seriously again.

[Gerry Hamilton]

9 minutes ago, BobInHouston said:

If Texas wins tomorrow, they can look at this seriously again.

Yep. Win tomorrow, and the Horns will get in the play in game

[Jordan91]

Just now, Gerry Hamilton said:

Yep. Win tomorrow, and the Horns will get in the play in game

A&M’s offensive rebounding scares me.