Bubble watch

[Jordan91]

8 hours ago, sarcher93 said:

OU is essentially a lock

Based on what?

[sarcher93]

11 minutes ago, Jordan91 said:

Based on what?

Based on what literally every bracketologist who majors in this stuff is saying. Would I love for them to be wrong? Sure. But OU's non-con will get them a bid.

[Assistant Regional Manager]

30 minutes ago, sarcher93 said:

Based on what literally every bracketologist who majors in this stuff is saying. Would I love for them to be wrong? Sure. But OU's non-con will get them a bid.

They played just as many 300+ NET opponents as Texas (6) and played 11 Q3 or Q4 opponents, while Texas only played 9.

I'll acknowledge their top-end non-con (Louisville, Michigan, Arizona) was better than ours (Ohio State, UConn, Saint Joe's), but their non-con ain't THAT much better. KenPom has it 320th nationally. 

I agree they are likely in, but it's been weird to see all these Bracket guys pencil in a team with the same conference record as us and a lower NET as a "lock".

Edited 14 hours ago by Assistant Regional Manager

[sarcher93]

Just now, Assistant Regional Manager said:

They played just as many 300+ NET opponents as Texas (6) and played 11 Q3 or Q4 opponents, while Texas only played 9.

I'll acknowledge their top-end non-con (Louisville, Michigan, Arizona) was better than ours (Ohio State, UConn, Saint Joe's), but their non-con ain't THAT much better. KenPom has it 320th nationally. 

Again, I am deferring to EVERY bracketologist. You will not find a single one that has OU out of the field. They are never all wrong about a team.

[bierce]

If Texas wins today, then it is definitely in and maybe even skipping the play in game.  Right now, Texas is on the cusp, so we are very much at risk of missing out, particularly if there are a couple of dance crashers.

Other games that matter today (bubble team boldfaced):

St. Bonaventure/VCU

This game is a bit of an oddity.  VCU might get passed over if it loses this early due to having just 1 q1 win (and haviing that only because it and Dayton each won at the other's place), and the A-10 would then be limited to just the tournament champ.  But I think the safest thing is for VCU to win the conference tournament so there is no risk of the A-10 getting two teams in.

Wichita State/Memphis

Same rationale as above.  Rest of AAC won't get in.  Memphis probably will due to 6-1 q1, 5-1 q2. 

UNC/Duke

Duke will be without Cooper Flagg.  If UNC falls to 1-12 in q1, then it would be extremely hard to justify a bid.

St. Joe's/Dayton

Dayton has received a vote or two of late.  Still just 67 NET, but had good OOC wins over UConn, Marquette, and Northwestern.

UC Santa Barbara/UC San Diego

See comments about VCU.

Boise State/New Mexico

I really don't understand why Boise State and New Mexico are adjacent in NET rankings.  Neither do the bracketsessed.  UNM is nearly unanimously placed on the 9 line.  Boise State is still first four out, but when the brackets update today to reflect Indiana, Xavier, SDSU, and OU losses, it might be on as many brackets as not.

Cal Poly/UC Irvine

UC Irvine also has received few votes, but I don't give it much chance if it doesn't win the autobid. 

Utah State/Colorado State

Colorado State has a single vote going into this morning.  I doubt beating Nevada gave it much of a bump.  Long odds to get in due to poor OOC showing.  Utah State seemed like a cert about two weeks ago, but losing to Boise State and Colorado State by a combined 44 points has dropped it to a 10 seed.  It could play its way out with another big loss. 

 

[bierce]

39 minutes ago, sarcher93 said:

Based on what literally every bracketologist who majors in this stuff is saying. Would I love for them to be wrong? Sure. But OU's non-con will get them a bid.

I agree with that being the likely outcome at this point.  I just don't make it a certainty.

And I won't be surprised if it is left off some brackets that update today and tomorrow. 

Edited 14 hours ago by bierce

[Neil Leininger]

I think if we win today and Carolina losses we will pass them in the NET. We are only 3 behind them after yesterday's results.

OU is probably safely in, but I agree with bierce about Baylor and I add another Big 12 team to that list, West Virginia.

Net in the 50s, but they are apparently safely in?

Edited 12 hours ago by Neil Leininger

[BobInHouston]

12 hours ago, Assistant Regional Manager said:

Saint Joseph’s beating Tech in Brooklyn was funny at the time but for our overall resume it would have probably been better for us to play Tech in that championship game.

St. Joe's turned out to be a decent team. I think both Tech and Texas were planning on walkovers that night and playing each other.

[BobInHouston]

As a fan of a bubble team, I am rooting big-time for UNM tonight.

If Texas wins today, I'm putting them in in ink. If not, burn the village in order to save it.

[bierce]

VCU won by 17.

Memphis fell behind early, but it leads by 10 at the half.

[Neil Leininger]

Wichita State staying in this one. Down 6 with 10 minutes to go but are already in the bonus.

Edited 10 hours ago by Neil Leininger

[bierce]

55 updated brackets, and we are on 40 of them, making us the very last team in according to the matrix.  UNC is on 41.  Indiana is on 46.  Xavier is our closest chaser and on 31.  Boise State is on 11. 

[bierce]

UNC down 21 at the half to Duke minus Cooper Flagg.

[Glass Joe]

5 hours ago, bierce said:

55 updated brackets, and we are on 40 of them, making us the very last team in according to the matrix.  UNC is on 41.  Indiana is on 46.  Xavier is our closest chaser and on 31.  Boise State is on 11. 

Does the fact that we have Tennessee a decent game while UNC is getting blown out of the gym matter in the calculations?  
 

UNC may lose by 30 to a Duke team without their best player.

[BobInHouston]

23 minutes ago, Glass Joe said:

Does the fact that we have Tennessee a decent game while UNC is getting blown out of the gym matter in the calculations?  

Only as it affects the votes of the committee members. If UNC is going to get left out, it will be 1-12 against Q1 that does it.

Their best chance was to beat Duke, with or without Cooper Flagg.

[BobInHouston]

Duke playing like a freshman team right now. The 24-point lead is down to six, UNC is going to the line, and there's still about four minutes left.

[Neil Leininger]

Lulz, UNC gonna lose on a lane violation.

[bierce]

Refs worked hard all second half to give UNC chances to get that win, but that lane violation . . . Wow. 

[Orngblud05]

The way Texas is playing, it would be a shame if they/Tre don’t get in.  2 weeks ago it was a really tough watch. These last 3 games have been different. Could see them winning a game or two if they get the chance. 

[bierce]

6 minutes ago, Orngblud05 said:

The way Texas is playing, it would be a shame if they/Tre don’t get in.  2 weeks ago it was a really tough watch. These last 3 games have been different. Could see them winning a game or two if they get the chance. 

I agree.  Weird thing was that we won 3 out of 4 games we were supposed to lose before playing Tennessee today and lost 3 of 4 games we were favored to win.  Vandy game was a push. 

[bierce]

UC San Diego is nuking UC Santa Barbara in the second half.  It should be a tournament at large by now, but let us hope it gets the Big West autobid. 

Boise State down 2 to UNM with 12:15 left.

 

[TTaylor2135]

I’m at the ACC tournament. Duke should get a 4 seed. This Louisville/Clemson game would be South Carolina/Georiga .. this is such an awful product.

[bierce]

Oh boy.  Boise State up a point and with ball with 2:13 left. 

[bierce]

And Boise State beats UNM.  Texas is probably now on the outside looking in.

[Glass Joe]

40 minutes ago, bierce said:

And Boise State beats UNM.  Texas is probably now on the outside looking in.

Yeah, I think with Boise State beating UNM, we may now be the last team out.  To make matters worse, if Colorado State beats Utah State (they are up 9 pts early)  that will set up a situation where the winner of Boise vs Colorado State automatically gets into the tournament.  Both of these teams were behind Texas starting play today (according to Lunardi), so this may be the bid steal that dooms Texas.

Assuming the above, I think the final Play-In spot is now between UNC and Texas.  The fact that UNC made it a competitive game against Duke in the second half may change committee perceptions (from the dreadful first half for UNC).

Aside from this Boise vs Colorado St scenario, Texas needs to be aware of North Texas upsetting Memphis in the AAC tourney, which would also be a bid steal that may doom Texas.